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A Look at Some of the Best NFL Week 1 Bets

By Joe Tansey

Published: Sep 5th, 2025 · 5:04 PM EDT

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The best part about the Eagles playing on Thursday night is that we get to sit back and relax and watch Week 1 without any stress.

Let’s take a look at the best bets in a handful of categories with odds from ESPN Bet.

Favorite: Denver (-8.5) vs. Tennessee

Look, I get it, it’s a big spread, but this is Sean Payton at home against a rookie quarterback.

The Broncos should be the only team you play in Survivor pools and one of the favorites to back on the betting side.

We just don’t know how good Cam Ward will be in the NFL and he’s got an average group of skill position players around him. Tony Pollard isn’t a great RB1, Calvin Ridley, and Tyler Lockett are one year older and Chig Okonkwo is a mid-tier tight end at best.

Denver’s defense will likely eat the rookie quarterback alive.

The Broncos have plenty to build on with Bo Nix and one of the most underappreciated wide receivers in the NFL in Courtland Sutton. They also added J.K. Dobbins and Evan Engram to make the offense more robust.

Here’s an odd but true stat: Nine of Denver’s 10 wins last regular season were by nine points or more.

Underdog: Houston (+3.5) at LA Rams

Are we really sure Matthew Stafford is healthy?

That’s one of the biggest questions going into Week 1.

Even if he’s 70-80 percent, the Texans defense isn’t a unit I’d want to face in the season opener.

Houston won’t have Joe Mixon and doesn’t have much depth behind Nico Collins at wide receiver, but that defense is damn good and it’s one that can cause a ton of havoc against a banged-up Stafford.

Over/Under: Carolina at Jacksonville (Over 46.5)

Oh yeah, Panthers/Jaguars is ugly as hell on paper, but it can actually be a sneaky good game.

Jacksonville’s offense should be revamped under former Bucs OC Liam Coen. Trevor Lawrence is healthy and has one of the best young wide outs in the NFL in Brian Thomas Jr.

Add in Travis Hunter, two decent running backs, and an emerging young tight end in Brenton Strange, and you have a potentially-fun offense.

I wouldn’t totally count out Bryce Young either. Tetairoa McMillan is a great addition to the passing game and a big upgrade over Xavier Legette and Adam Thielen.

One thing I’d also note: Carolina and Jacksonville gave up the two highest yardage totals in 2024. That won’t change in just one game in 2025.

Touchdown Scorers:

Terry McLaurin (+125): Just got paid. Jayden Daniels’ No. 1 target. Giants defense is solid, but McLaurin will have a high volume with not a ton of success expected in the Commanders’ rushing attack.

Brian Thomas Jr. (+130): Still the best pass-catcher on the Jags’ roster even with Hunter on the roster. I have to pick a TD prop from the game I think will have a ton of points.

Nico Collins (+130): I’m not exaggerating when I say Collins might have 150 yards and two touchdowns. He’s the guy in the Houston offense.

And of course, make sure to take advantage of the Week 1 NJ sportsbook promos and PA betting promos.