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NLDS Game 2: Phillies Once Again a Home Underdog
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are a +110 money-line underdog for NLDS Game 2 at BetMGM:
That doesn’t exactly help a U-turn on the negative vibes around the fan base right now, but in reality, it’s a fair price given the pitching matchup.
Blake Snell will be making his 12th postseason start on Monday night. The Dodgers left-hander is coming off the best postseason start of his career. He went seven innings, struck out nine, and gave up two earned runs in Game 1 of the wild-card series against the Reds.
On the other hand, Jesus Luzardo hasn’t made it past 13 outs in his four postseason appearances. The Phillies also lost Luzardo’s start at Dodger Stadium in September.
However, there is hope that Luzardo turns the series around on his own. The left-hander pitched seven shutout innings and struck out eight batters in an April home start versus the Dodgers. Luzardo outdueled Yoshinobu Yamamoto in that contest.
Luzardo had 16 more strikeouts, and more importantly, 13 fewer walks at home than on the road in the regular season, so he can get the Phils through five innings and then go to the all-hands-on-deck approach to get the final few outs.
Luzardo’s outs recorded prop at BetMGM sits at Over/Under 14.5. His strikeout prop is Over/Under 5.5. I’d take a flier on the outs recorded prop. The key here is getting Shohei Ohtani and Mookie Betts out.
Ohtani and Betts both have averages under .200 in their careers against Luzardo and they went a combined 0-for-9 in Game 1. Teoscar Hernandez had the big three-run home run, but he also whiffed on three occasions.
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Cristopher Sanchez proved the Dodgers’ lineup can be contained, which is what the Phils need out of Luzardo. Strikeouts would be great as well, but outs are more important in this spot.
As for the Phillies against Snell, I would take Snell Over 3.5 hits allowed. Snell’s allowed at least four hits in each of his last four postseason starts. The Phillies got to him for four runs in Game 2 of the 2022 NLCS. Bryce Harper, Alec Bohm, and Edmundo Sosa all had hits in that game.
Harper is -160 to record a hit at bet365. He comes into Monday with a five-game postseason hitting streak, and let’s be honest, if you need a big, series-changing hit, he’s the guy for the job.
Nick Castellanos is worth a look on the hit market as well at -145, if he starts against the lefty. After all, this is a guy who had seven hits in the NLDS against the Mets last season. I’m not sure if Edmundo Sosa gets the nod over Bryson Stott, but if Sosa is in the lineup after a lefty, I’d attack his hit prop as well.
In terms of PA betting promos, and NJ sportsbook promos, bet365 has a 30 percent profit boost available for either of Monday’s games. Harper to record a hit, Luzardo o14.5 outs, and Snell o3.5 hits allowed gets you to +300 before the boost is applied.
I wouldn’t go too crazy on player props in this specific game, but if I had to call my shot, a Harper home run (+475) would make for a damn good moment to shift the complexion of the series.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.