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Bettors are Hammering the Dallas Cowboys to Make the Playoffs at +270 Odds
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Our friends at BetMGM sent over the latest insights on the NFL playoff picture as we head into Week 14. Notably, the Cowboys have jumped from +525 to +270 to make the postseason and bettors have been jumping on Dem Boyz for the last four weeks:
Most bet to MAKE playoffs (tickets)
- Cowboys +270
- Bengals +950
- Dolphins +10000
Most bet MAKE playoffs (handle)
- Eagles -2000
- Bills -2000
- Chiefs +110
Most bet MISS playoffs (tickets)
- Chiefs -130
- Bears +260
- Chargers +115
You’ve probably heard some of the doomsday chatter, that the Eagles will face the Cowboys in the 2/7 game and lose in embarrassing fashion and complete the biggest collapse in all of time and eternity. Then every Eagles coach is fired and every player is placed on waivers.
It’s unlikely.
For starters, Dallas practically has to win out to make the postseason. They are 6-5-1 and 9th place in the NFC. They play in Detroit on Thursday night and if they lose that game they’re pretty much done. They’d fall to 6-6-1 and find themselves behind the Carolina Panthers, who likely beat the Saints in New Orleans this weekend. San Fran is currently 9-4, the Seahawks are 9-3, and Green Bay is 8-3-1.
Interestingly enough, the NFL data currently has the Cowboys with a 21% chance to make the playoffs. If they lose to Detroit, it dips to 9%, and if they win, it goes up to 38%. This is the hardest game remaining on their schedule.
Notable is that the NFC East path for the Cowboys requires an epic Eagles collapse, which, as bad as the Birds have looked in recent weeks, is probably not going to happen because Las Vegas is on the schedule and Washington is on the schedule twice. At WORST, the Eagles would probably finish 10-7. That’s if they beat Vegas, split with Washington, and lose to LA and Buffalo. Dallas would need to beat four of Detroit, Minnesota, the Chargers, Commanders, and Giants to get to 10-6-1, so the odds appropriately reflect the steepness of the climb.
Looking for value, the Lions are just 7-5, and have been somewhat gross in recent weeks. Amon-Ra St. Brown is injured. But their last three losses were all one-score games against the Eagles, Packers, and Vikings. They’ve alternated W/L/W/L going back two full months now and they get Dallas at home. I think you hold your nose and play Detroit moneyline at -160. It’s a three-point spread, maybe move the line down to -2.5 for a field goal non-push. It’s less about confidence in Detroit, and more about the fact that the Cowboys’ last three wins were just sort of whatever. One game was against the Raiders, the second required a pitiful Eagles collapse, and the third featured a KC Chiefs team with no juice. The Eagles killed the Chiefs’ dynasty in Super Bowl LIX. We fade DEM BOYZ and back the Lions.
If Dallas wins we swear off betting forever and turn to US online casino. We play blackjack online.
Kevin has been writing about Philadelphia sports since 2009. He spent seven years in the CBS 3 sports department and started with the Union during the team's 2010 inaugural season. He went to the academic powerhouses of Boyertown High School and West Virginia University. email - k.kinkead@sportradar.com