Sixers

The Sixers Have No Path to Tanking and Must See This Season Through

By Sean Barnard

Published: Mar 12th, 2026 · 2:31 PM EDT

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For the second consecutive season, the Sixers are close to calling uncle before the final playoff push even begins.

Also for the second consecutive season, injuries have derailed the year, preventing a fair sample size to determine if this vision of the Big 3 max-contract players can even be effective. 

After finding his stride and playing above any realistic expectations for the middle stretch of the season, availability issues have returned for Joel Embiid. He’s played 33 total games and last suited up on February 26th. Paul George overcame some early-season injury issues and settled into his role, only to fail a drug test and receive a 25-game suspension. Now, nearly two full seasons into being teammates, Embiid and George have suited up for just 37 games together.

The knockout blow was the news that Tyrese Maxey will be sidelined for at least the next three weeks due to a tendon issue in his right pinkie. The All-Star guard deserves immense credit for being the stability of the franchise and further elevating his game as he stepped into the true shoes of being the franchise face. Maxey leads the NBA with 38.3 minutes per game and is producing a career-high 29.0 points, 6.7 assists, and 4.1 rebounds. From an individual standpoint, this is also a brutal blow for Maxey. He”s played 61 games this year and, if he is unable to return this season, he will not reach the 65-game NBA limit to be eligible for an All-NBA team, which he is almost certainly in line to earn.

The elbow injury suffered by Kelly Oubre Jr. was further salt in the wound. He’ll be re-evaluated in two more weeks after playing one of his best games of the season on Tuesday.

There is no saving grace or light at the end of the tunnel, unlike last year, when they managed to keep their top-six protected pick and draft V.J. Edgecombe, who has been everything the Sixers could have hoped for and more. The rookie has already made a clear case for why he’s Maxey’s ideal backcourt partner of the future, so much so that Jared McCain became expendable in the eyes of the organization.

After a months-long effort to maximize their draft position, the Sixers entered that lottery with a 64.0% chance of keeping the pick. As a result, Oklahoma City maintained control of the Sixers’ protected draft pick for this season, which stemmed originally from the Al Horford trade. As long as it falls outside of the top four this time around, it’s the Thunder’s pick.

Unfortunately, the pathway to this actually occurring is improbable at best.. In order for the Sixers to even have a chance in the lottery, they would need to miss the playoffs and either the lottery play-in entirely or be eliminated in the play-in tournament.

This is not impossible. Just last season, the Mavericks won the 9 vs. 10 play-in game before being eliminated by the Grizzlies in the second matchup to miss the postseason. Dallas then leaped up to the top draft selection with just a 1.8% chance of doing so and got the first overall pick to select Cooper Flagg.

Currently, the Sixers hold a 35-30 record and sit in eighth place in the Eastern Conference. They are 1.5 games back from climbing back to the sixth-seed, and 2.0 games above the 10 seed. The Milwaukee Bucks are 7.5 games behind in the 11th seed, which is some significant ground they would need to make up for the Sixers to fall out of the play-in mix. The pathway to winning games is slim, given their current loaded injury list, but losing this much ground feels extremely improbable even if Giannis Antetokounmpo can lead Milwaukee with a Herculean effort.

Basically, any way you cut it, there is no way for the Sixers to gain more than a 4.8% chance of keeping their draft pick, and the more likely number is under 2%. Even with it feeling like the universe owes this Sixers franchise a couple of favors, this is far too small a margin to operate with this as a goal. You could make the case that this is a higher percentage than the Sixers realistically have of making a deep run, but without a guaranteed benefit, it does not make sense to tank the year. More likely, the Sixers would just be improving the Thunder’s draft pick as if giving them McCain was not enough.

It feels like a difficult ask to re-ignite some of the momentum they had in the early parts of this season. But the Sixers have no better option than to hope this is the case. George will be eligible to return with 10 games remaining in the regular season, starting with the March 25th matchup against the Chicago Bulls. Embiid will be re-evaluated in the coming days, and there will hopefully be a clearer timeline for his return. His current absence is due to the oblique strain, but the lingering knee problems still exist. If Maxey is to be cleared immediately after the three-week timeline, he could theoretically return for the April 1st matchup against the Wizards.

If all goes according to plan, the three stars could all be available for the final seven games of the regular season. There are two pairs of back-to-backs in this mix, so assuming George and Embiid cannot play in both sides of the matchups, this brings a maximum of five games that they can all play together. If the Sixers can find a way to tread water until this return, the sixth seed could possibly still be in play. But it is more likely they will be looking to solidify their play-in seeding and get the reward of playing either the Pistons or Celtics in the first round of the playoffs.

There is value in getting some form of postseason experience for Edgecombe and getting a further look at what this version of the Sixers could possibly be. Like it or not, Embiid is under contract for two more seasons with an additional player option and George is on the books for next season with a player option for 2027-28. This group was assembled with the intention of contending for a championship and, even with it seeming impossible, the Sixers have no choice but to see it through. At least no team in the league will have as fresh of legs as the Sixers, right?

It was palatable to accept last year as a season in which everything that could go wrong did go wrong. It is not as tolerable to accept this for two consecutive seasons. Ownership gave a pass for last year and allowed this season to be one in which they ran it back. Falling short for largely the same issues as last year is increasingly concerning. There seems to be larger stakes this year with some head decision makers, who will feel the pressure of this final stretch even more than the players on the floor.

This was a season that started with basically zero expectation after last year’s mess. The Sixers cleared the bar of the previous substandard results and played in the hunt for most of the year. They always had flaws, and maybe early-season success sped up expectations to a level that were not realistic. There are still plenty of positive storylines to point to, such as Maxey’s continued ascension, Edgecombe’s success, and Dominick Barlow being a diamond in the rough. But the main goal is still for this team to have some hope at winning a title, and this year’s results are a far cry from this. Big picture conversations will take place this summer, but the only path forward for the Sixers is to attempt to get more of a sample size of what this team can be and hope for one final push.