Phillies

Fresh Start? Why I’m All-In on Phillies (Tonight, Anyway)

By Chris Wright

Published: Apr 28th, 2026 · 3:34 PM EDT

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It’s never too late to start anew, right?

The Phillies sure hope so. After firing manager Rob Thomson earlier Tuesday, the 9-19 Phillies start a brief 3-game homestand tonight against the San Francisco Giants. It’ll be interesting to see how the Bank reacts to Jesus Luzardo’s first pitch (6:40 pm, ET, NBCSP). Phillies fans haven’t celebrated a home win since April 13th.

Interim manager Don Mattingly will fill out the lineup, so send all complaints about who leads off, who hits fourth in his direction. Considering Mattingly collected 2,153 hits in his decorated career — exactly 2,153 more than Thomson — we’ll assume you and Nick Castellanos will approve.

One thing we can all agree on is nothing matters — manager, lineup, jersey choice, nothing — if the pitching staff continues at its current brutal pace.

Luzardo is on the bump again tonight, and he’s been a big part of the problem. Ricky Bottalico isn’t the only one growing weary wondering when the 2025 version will reappear. Luzardo is 1-3 with a 6.91 ERA through 5 starts. He has allowed 21 earned runs in 27.1 innings. He has allowed at least 5 earned runs in 3 of those 5 starts. Last season, he allowed 5 or more earned runs just 4 times in 32 starts.

Can the Phillies hit reset? They did in 2022. That team was 22-29 when it fired Joe Girardi and hired Thomson, who won his first game and led them to the World Series.

We’re still in April — and as ridiculous as this is to think, much less write, they’re only 6.5 games out of the Wild Card race with 134 games to go. So, yes, in theory, there’s plenty of time. Will a different voice help pitchers pitch, Trea Turner field and Alec Bohm hit? TBD, but it can’t hurt.

Opening Day, Part II has arrived. Oddsmakers are optimistic. They’ve installed the Phillies as consensus moneyline favorites tonight.

Let’s break down Tuesday’s game vs. the Giants (13-15) and find the best angles for PA sports betting and New Jersey sports betting apps.

Phillies vs Giants Odds

Giants vs Phillies Predictions & Best Bets

The Pick: Phillies Moneyline (-160 Bet365)

I get it. Betting on this home team right now requires the kind of blind faith usually reserved for folks defending Ben Simmons’ jump shot. The cold, hard numbers don’t lie: In early April, the Giants won 2 of 3 games vs. the Phillies in the Bay Area. The Phillies were actually 6-4 overall after winning the opening game of that series. Obviously, the wheels fell off immediately after.

Bygones. Call me crazy, not so much for thinking Luzardo might actually shove for 6 innings tonight, but for the general belief that the clean slate might be what this team needs. Even if it’s only fleeting.

It certainly helps that the Phillies are facing Tyler Mahle (1-3, 5.26 ERA), though you would have thought the same thing when he tossed 5+ scoreless innings against them on April 8. That was his best start of the year.

I’m banking on the Phillies’ bats coming to life. For a night, anyway.

Phillies Player Prop Picks & Predictions

Bryce Harper – Over 1.5 Total Bases (+114 at theScore)

Bryce Harper is attempting to drag this lineup kicking and screaming out of the gutter like a guy pulling a broken-down Broad Street Line car by himself. He is hitting .260 with 6 home runs, practically making him a superhero on a roster playing this dreadfully. Lucky for him, Mahle is generously allowing a .273 opponent batting average and a bloated 5.26 ERA. Harper casually teeing off for a double or stringing together a couple of at bats against a struggling arm is the safest bet in town.

Tyler Mahle – Over 2.5 Earned Runs (-125 at theScore)

We’ve discussed how Mahle mowed down the Phillies earlier: 3 hits in 5.2 scoreless innings, with 6 strikeouts.

But he also walked 4 and dodged trouble throughout. He won’t escape it again tonight.

That’s a silver lining to the Mattingly era starting tonight. Mahle’s 5.26 ERA is no fluke; he’s getting squared up consistently.

Even during the Phillies’ current 1-11 slide, the offense can accidentally stumble into 3 runs when a pitcher is carrying that .273 opponent batting average and leaving breaking balls hanging over the plate. Expect the bats to show just enough life to cash this over before the bullpen takes over.

Final thought for the naysayers …

This is the 10th time in the past 48 seasons the Phillies have fired a coach during the season. The Phillies are 2-7 in their first game with the interim manager in that stretch. … But Rob Thomson provided 1 of those wins in 2022.

Season	Interim Mgr	Game #	Date	Result
2026	Don Mattingly	29	2026-04-28	TBD
2022	Rob Thomson	52	2022-06-03	W
2015	Pete Mackanin	75	2015-06-26	L
2013	Ryne Sandberg	121	2013-08-16	L
2004	Gary Varsho	161	2004-10-02	L
1991	Jim Fregosi	14	1991-04-23	L
1988	John Vukovich	154	1988-09-23	L
1987	Lee Elia	62	1987-06-18	L
1983	Paul Owens	87	1983-07-18	L
1979	Dallas Green	134	1979-08-31	W