Eagles

Bet Patrick Mahomes as a Super Bowl Underdog, or Bust?

By Joe Tansey

Published: Jan 29th, 2024 · 2:20 PM EST

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All you had to do on Sunday night was scan social media to get the overwhelming public opinion on Super Bowl 58.

“Bet Patrick Mahomes as an underdog, no matter what!”

Mahomes and the Kansas City Chiefs have already been bet down from +2.5 to +1. That’s everywhere, from Pennsylvania sports betting and New Jersey sports betting to everything in between.

It’s difficult to call this a dramatic overreaction to Mahomes and the Chiefs beating the Baltimore Ravens as an underdog in the AFC Championship Game, because well, this is Mahomes, the guy who will nauseatingly be mentioned alongside Tom Brady in your favorite hot take show’s GOAT discussion for the next two weeks.

The auto-bet-Mahomes-as-an-underdog thing has some legs to it.

After all, the Chiefs won their only two games as underdogs with their starters available this season – in Buffalo and Baltimore over the last two weeks. They’re 3-0 against the spready as a dog this season, if you count the Week 18 backup fest against the Los Angeles Chargers.

Mahomes is 9-3 straight up as an underdog in his career. That’s the money statistic that makes you go “Wow, maybe I should ignore everything else and blindly bet the Chiefs before the line flips more!”

To add fuel to the fire, the Chiefs won as a two-point underdog in Super Bowl 57 as well. They were favored in the other two appearances of the Mahomes and Andy Reid era.

And while the favorite is 3-2 ATS in the last five Super Bowls, the underdogs are 8-4 ATS in the Super Bowl dating back to the New York Giants’ second upset of the New England Patriots in Super Bowl 46.

The other way to approach the whole Mahomes underdog thing is to bet Mahomes to win Super Bowl Most Valuable Player at +150.

If you’re going all in on the Mahomes underdog take, Mahomes is probably going to go off and win the award tailored for quarterbacks and one that a quarterback has captured 32 times in 57 Super Bowls.