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A Look at the Stanley Cup Final Game 6 Odds
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Stanley Cup Final is still somehow going on.
The Edmonton Oilers won Games 4 and 5 to force Game 6 against the Florida Panthers in Alberta on Friday night.
The series is still in process because, well mainly, Connor McDavid is fucking awesome. He had eight points in the last two games and he’s now -275 to win the Conn Smythe Trophy. He was +700 to win the MVP award going into Game 5.
We’re still talking about hockey because there’s been three days between every game, and while I get it because of travel, we should be on Game 7 by now. It’s even more of a crime that, if the Oilers win Game 6, we have to wait until Monday for Game 7. That’s some MLB-level incompetence by the NHL scheduling department to not have Game 7 set for a Sunday night.
Anyway, about the game itself, Edmonton is a slight -120 favorite on the money line. Florida is an even-money underdog. The over/under sits at 5.5.
The last two games blitzed past the over/under number because Edmonton’s offense, well mostly McDavid, decided to join the series late. There have been 17 goals in the last two games. The over is 3-2 in the series and the under has not hit since Game 2, when Florida had full control of the series.
McDavid will be the most-bet player in most props for Game 6. He’s -135 to go over his 1.5 points prop. He had three goals and five assists in the last two games. He is the only player with an over/under of 1.5 assists for Game 6 and is still a plus-money option to score a goal.
The one thing McDavid hasn’t done a ton in the last two games is shoot the puck. He had just four shots on goal. His over/under is once again set at 3.5 shots on goal. If you’re using New Jersey sports betting apps or Pennsylvania sportsbook apps, I’d probably play the over just because there’s going to be so much reliance on McDavid to do everything once again. All of his prop overs should be in play.
I would look to Game 5 as a better example of what the Oilers depth can do around McDavid since the Game 4 stats are skewed toward the non-stars since it was a blowout going into the third period. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins and Zach Hyman would be the two Oilers skaters to target for shots. They had seven SOGs between them in Game 5 and get a boost from being on the top power play unit.
Florida’s stars have not shown up as much as McDavid, but Matthew Tkachuk and Carter Verhaeghe combined for 15 SOGs in Games 4 and 5. But they have not been the most consistent Panthers in shots on goal. That title belongs to Vladimir Tarasenko, who has gone over his 1.5 shots on goal prop in all five games of the series. He had at least three SOGs in each of the last four games.
If Florida closes out on Friday, there’s still a chance McDavid wins the Conn Smythe. Sergei Bobrovsky’s stock is down after his five-goal concession and benching in Game 4. Aleksandar Barkov played great defense on McDavid from Games 1-3, but only having one goal and three assists isn’t enough to win MVP.
Maybe an unlikely star of Game 6 emerges to make a run at MVP, but that award seems to be McDavid’s to lose, win or loss in the series, right now.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.