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Alec Bohm Has Longest Odds to Win 2024 Home Run Derby
By Joe Tansey
Published:
Alec Bohm has the longest odds across the board to win Monday’s Home Run Derby.
Bohm is listed at +1700 to win the event at DraftKings. FanDuel gave him even longer odds of +2000.
No matter what the number is, Bohm ranks dead last in the likelihood of winning the exhibition event inside Globe Life Field in Arlington, Texas.
I’d argue that MLB did Bohm dirty by even inviting him to participate. He has the fewest amount of home runs in the Derby field (11), five fewer than Bobby Witt Jr.’s second-lowest total, and there’s a 17-homer gap between him and Gunnar Henderson.
Two-time Derby winner Pete Alonso is the favorite. Atlanta’s Marcell Ozuna is the second favorite. Bobby Witt Jr., Gunnar Henderson, Adolis Garcia, Teoscar Hernandez, and Jose Ramirez are the other participants.
Bohm is one of the best doubles hitters and run-producers in the majors, so it’s not like he got invited because he’s having a bad season. He’s just having a strong offensive season without mashing dingers.
Because this is the only major sporting event taking place on Monday night, of course there are oodles of ways to approach betting the Derby.
There are new rules for the 2024 event. The eight participants will hit on their own and not in matchups like previous years. The top four home-run hitters from the first round will then be placed into a bracket with No. 1 vs. No. 4 and No. 2 vs. No. 3.
Each of the first two rounds will last three minutes, or have a maximum of 40 pitches. There will also be three bonus outs at the end of every round. Competitors can also earn a fourth bonus out if they hit a ball over 425 feet.
Bohm’s over/under for first round home runs is set at 18.5. He is the only player with odds over +200 just to make the semifinals. He is anywhere from +600 to +800 to qualify for the two-man final.
Under the old rules in 2023, there were only two hitters who hit fewer than 20 home runs in a single round. Surprisingly, Mookie Betts and Adolis Garcia recorded those rounds.
The over/under for most home runs hit in the first round is set at 26.5. At least one first-round score went over 27 in the last three Derbies.
The total for first-round home runs is set at over/under 158.5 and total home runs for the full event is set at over/under 269.5.
You would need an average of 20 home runs per player for the first-round over to hit. An average of 19.2 home runs is needed across the eight first-round at-bats, two semifinals and final for the full event over to hit.
I would recommend looking into the first round total prop more than the full event with New Jersey online sports betting. We see it every year with the Derby. Dudes come out in the first round with adrenaline flowing and want to put on a show. The final usually is a battle of attrition and not of pure home-run hitting skill.
Longest home run is the other popular event-long prop at Pennsylvania sportsbook apps. Witt has the longest homer in the majors this season at 468 feet. The longest-ever home run inside Globe Life Field is 505 feet, but you need a lot of power to get there. Straightaway center field is 407 feet, it’s 329 feet to left and 326 feet to right. All of these guys are capable of launching one massive homer, but the over/under of 482.5 feet for longest home run may be hard to reach given the dimensions in the park.
Picking a Derby winner can be tough because you can convince me on any of the eight participants, even Bohm, who could surprise us all.
My pick would be Adolis Garcia because he had an abysmal 2023 Derby and is hitting inside his home park. My second option would be Gunnar Henderson simply because he has the most dingers in the field.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.