Ad Disclosure
NLDS Game 4: Phillies an Underdog with Season on the Line Against Mets
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Philadelphia Phillies are the slightest of underdogs in their quest to keep their season alive on Wednesday at Citi Field.
The Phils are hovering right around plus-money on the money line, while the New York Mets are anywhere from -115 to -120 at the major sportsbooks.
This is a similar line to Game 3, with the roles reversed.
Ranger Suarez vs. Jose Quintana is the pitching matchup, but it may not be the traditional pitching battle.
You have to assume Suarez has the shortest of short leashes and that an all-hands-on-deck approach will be used with the bullpen to get to Zack Wheeler for a Friday Game 5.
The oddsmakers baked that into Suarez’s pitching props. He is listed at over/under 12.5 outs and over/under 3.5 strikeouts, both of which are low totals for starters. For what it’s worth, his hits allowed prop is over/under 4.5 and earned runs allowed sits at over/under 1.5.
Suarez’s second half of the 2024 regular season doesn’t suggest he’ll be on the mound long on Wednesday, but he did pitch well on the road last postseason, which is one of the grasping-for-straws stats Phils fans have to latch on to.
Ranger gave up four hits, struck out 11 batters and walked just two hitters across nine innings against Atlanta and Arizona away from home in 2023.
In fact, Suarez has only allowed more than four hits once in his seven postseason starts, so there’s hope, and if you have an ounce of belief left, you could convert that into cash on the under for Suarez’s hits allowed and the over on his outs.
The best-case scenario is that Suarez goes five innings, or two times through the order, before the high-leverage arms take over to get the final 12 outs.
Suarez just went five innings against the Mets on September 21st, but he walked three and gave up two earned runs on five hits. That type of outing will not keep him in this game long.
Online casino bonuses: make sure to check out the best offers for PA casino apps and NJ online casino.
The Phils won’t win any type of game if they don’t hit. Yes, it’s that simple.
The good news is that Nick Castellanos, Kyle Schwarber, and Trea Turner have 26 combined hits against Quintana in their careers. Those three players and Bryce Harper are four of the five batters across Wednesday’s four-game slate with 20+ at-bats against the opposing pitcher. Brandon Nimmo, who is 3-for-25 against Suarez, is the other player on that list.
Nothing Quintana throws at the Phillies will be a surprise, but whether they unlock the Mets pitcher remains to be seen.
Quintana only gave up four hits in his wild-card round Game 3 start, also a clinching scenario, and he’s lasted at least five innings in four of his five postseason starts, including a two-hit outing over 5.1 innings in the wild-card round opener against the Phillies back in 2022, when he was playing for the Cardinals.
The top four hitters in the Phillies order are the only batters I’d trust. They’re responsible for 13 of the 20 Phils hits in the series. Kody Clemens and Bryson Stott have two hits each, but only Stott has a case to be in the Game 4 lineup.
FanDuel is offering a 30 percent profit boost, DraftKings has an all-parlay boost available for the four-game slate, BetMGM has an odds boost token and bet365 has a 50 percent SGP boost for customers.
I’d look into some combination of Schwarber/Turner/Harper/Castellanos hits to take advantage of the numerous promotions available to you.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.