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Phillies -170 to Win Midweek Minnesota Twins Series
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Philadelphia Phillies’ post-All-Star Game road gauntlet continues on Monday in Minnesota.
They’re -170 on the series line to take at least two of three from the Twins, who come into Monday five games back of the Cleveland Guardians in the American League Central.
The Phils dropped two of three to the Pittsburgh Pirates over the weekend, and while they may have lost you some bets, they weren’t really affected in the standings.
In fact, you could argue that the Phillies are in great shape to extend their advantage over the Atlanta Braves even if they play .500 baseball for the next few weeks.
Ozzie Albies and Max Fried both hit the injury list on Sunday with different ailments to further dig into Atlanta’s lack of depth.
The Phils should continue the momentum from Sunday’s win into Target Field since they have Ranger Suarez, Zack Wheeler, and Aaron Nola lined up to pitch in the series.
Minnesota has a younger pitching staff and that’s highlighted by Bailey Ober and Simeon Woods-Richardson starting the first two games of the series. The Twins rank 20th in the majors with a 4.15 team ERA and they are 24th in the majors with a 4.09 home ERA.
Target Field is an underrated hitters park. It actually ranks right behind Citizens Bank Park in home runs hit at the ballpark in 2024.
Ober, a right-handed pitcher who starts Tuesday, has at least six strikeouts in each of his last five games, but he also allowed six home runs in his last seven appearances.
Woods-Richardson, who will be an underdog against Wheeler on Wednesday, allowed multiple earned runs in five straight starts and let up 14 hits in his last three trips to the mound.
Translation: the Phillies can knock some dingers off the Twins pitching staff this week.
The same could be said about the Twins. They rank first in batting average against left-handed pitching and scored 11 runs against the Milwaukee Brewers this weekend despite having Jose Miranda, Carlos Correa and Royce Lewis out with injury.
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However, Suarez owns a 1.81 ERA in games caught by J.T. Realmuto this season. Realmuto was just activated off the injured list this weekend. So maybe that negates the power threat posed by the Twins.
Wheeler and Nola will have the pitching edges on Tuesday and Wednesday, so Tuesday would be the game for Minnesota to steal. That’s also coincides with FanDuel’s Dinger Tuesdays, which is one of the more popular PA sportsbook promos.
As a whole, the series should be fairly straightforward for the Phillies and likely extend the growing advantage on the Braves.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.