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Phillies in Good Shape to Rebound Behind Zack Wheeler
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The sky certainly isn’t falling on the Philadelphia Phillies.
That needs to put out there before talking about Tuesday’s game against the San Francisco Giants.
The Phils have lost three of their last four games, but because they’ve started so incredibly well, they’re still 21 games over .500 coming out of Memorial Day weekend.
Once they leave San Francisco, the Phils play 12 of their next 20 games at home, where they’re 22-8.
So let’s all calm the hell down. We can handle a few losses in the midst of a historic start.
Plus, there’s really no need for concern with Zack Wheeler on the bump to steady the ship on Tuesday at Oracle Park.
Wheeler conceded two earned runs or less in six of his last seven appearances. He can shut down a San Francisco offense that ranks in the top 10 in batting average at home and against right-handed pitching.
The Phillies’ righty allowed more than five hits just once during his current stretch of low run concession.
If you want to have one concern about Wheeler, it’s walks. He’s walked multiple batters in six of his last eight starts. His walks prop sits at Over/Under 1.5.
Wheeler’s other props are right on the line where you expect them. The hits allowed prop is 5.5 and the runs allowed number is 1.5. His outs recorded is 18.5, which he has hit in three of his last four starts.
The Giants will start with left-hander Erik Miller as their opener, but there’s a chance the Phils see former prospect Spencer Howard. He’s pitching (not well I might add) for the Giants’ Triple-A affiliate in Sacramento. This one is expected to be a bullpen game regardless of who pitches the first few innings.
The first five is where the Phillies must do their damage against the Giants pitchers. The San Francisco bullpen has been very good against the Phillies in traditional roles this season. That unit gave up nine hits in 16.2 innings when a traditional start occurred.
The one exception is when the Phillies chased Keaton Winn in the first inning on May 4th and got five earned runs on eight hits off the two relievers that followed.
With that in mind, I would look into the Phillies first 5 innings run line. PA online sports betting, and on New Jersey sports betting apps, The money line is super juiced at -235 because of the pitching matchup. The Phils have been able to get to the Giants starters, like Blake Snell Monday, while the problems they’ve encountered came against San Francisco’s high-leverage bullpen arms.
I wouldn’t go too heavy on the batter props. Oracle Park is known as a pitcher’s park and you need perfect conditions for home runs. J.T. Realmuto seems to be the safest bet for Phillies player props right now. He has two multi-hit games against the Giants this season and had a double Monday to extend his hit streak to 16 games.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.