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Phillies Listed as -135 Favorite in Three-Game Showdown with World Series Favorite Dodgers
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers are probably playing in an NLCS preview this week at Citizens Bank Park.
The Dodgers are favored across the board at every sportsbook to win the World Series and the National League. The Phillies are second in both markets.
The prices are different for this series. The Phils are a slight -135 favorite to win at least two of three, mostly because of the Bank’s home field advantage.
I could argue that this week’s series is more important to the Phils in terms of where they stand in the NL than the recently-completed Atlanta series.
Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper are expected to be back, so the only key component missing from the series is Mookie Betts, who is obviously a big piece, but it’s as close to full strength as both teams will be.
If you’re looking at this series on NJ sports betting apps, or sportsbook apps in PA, the Phillies have a very clear pitching advantage, not just in the series, but in an overall comparison to the Dodgers.
Zack Wheeler and Ranger Suarez are All-Stars. Aaron Nola and Cristopher Sanchez both have strong cases to be All-Stars.
The Dodgers have Tyler Glasnow at the top of the rotation, but as you’ll see this week, they’re relying on a lot of young talent to boost up their rotation right now. They are hoping to get Clayton Kershaw back for the second half, and because it’s the Dodgers, they’ll probably land a front-end starter at the trade deadline.
As for this week, the matchups favor the Phillies.
Take Tuesday’s game as the best example of that.
Wheeler is on the hill for the Phils, and although Freddie Freeman (.412 BA in 51 career at-bats) has a great history against him, he and Shohei Ohtani are holding up a lineup with a lot of holes.
Tuesday’s Dodgers starter Bobby Miller has horrendous numbers on the road. Miller owns a 9.64 road ERA. He’s allowed 15 earned runs in 14 innings away from Dodger Stadium. Sure, it’s a small sample size, but it’s a pretty awful sample size.
Gavin Stone is the Dodgers’ best pitcher throwing in the series, but he’s going up against the unstoppable machine that is Cristopher Sanchez at the Bank. Sanchez is 5-1 with a 1.35 ERA and 58 strikeouts at home. Good luck beating him, even with Ohtani and Freeman in the lineup.
Nola opposes Landon Knack on Thursday. I would expect a bit of extra juice from Nola in that game. He could be mad about missing the All-Star Game and could be motivated by the big-game atmosphere to deliver a gem.
The pitching edge is clearly there, and with Schwarber and Harper likely back in the lineup, the overall hitting edge is similar.
I don’t know if Harper can gain any ground on Ohtani in the NL MVP race this week. It would take a Herculean effort off the injured list, something like four homers in three games, to really put pressure on Ohtani from an oddsmakers perspective.
The NL MVP is nice, but it’s probably the least of the Phillies’ concerns right now. The goal of this week is to prove they can not just compete with, but beat the Dodgers, and at least on paper, the setup is there for a big week.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.