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Phillies Priced Even With Braves on Series Line
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies head to Atlanta with a six-game edge in the NL East standings over the Braves.
Yet, the Phils are only level on odds with the Braves at -110 to win the series over at DraftKings Sportsbook.
The pricing is a little odd based on the starts both teams have had, but also because of how the pitching matchups are set up.
Zack Wheeler and Chris Sale will do battle on Tuesday, Taijuan Walker is up against Grant Holmes on Wednesday, and Jesus Luzardo opposes Spencer Schwellenbach on Thursday.
Tuesday’s game is a complete toss-up from a pitching perspective. Sale has a 5.40 ERA to start the year, but that’s just two starts into his post-Cy Young campaign.
It’s understandable why the Braves are a slight favorite on the Tuesday moneyline because they’re at home and Sale is on the bump.
However, the other two matchups skew in the Phillies’ direction.
Say what you want about Walker, but he showed up in his last start and is capable of giving the Phils five or six solid innings against a putrid Braves offense at the moment.
Luzardo is returning to his pre-injury form with the Marlins and is the more consistent hurler compared to Schwellenbach, last year’s breakout star of the Braves rotation.
We’re not talking overwhelming edges here, but there’s a clear case to be made that the Phils in their current form are in far better shape to win at least two out of three games in Atlanta.
The Braves rank dead last in team OPS, 29th in team batting average and they are the only MLB team with less than 60 hits.
At minimum, betting Wheeler props should be the way to go on Tuesday. He has an over/under of 4.5 hits allowed and 7.5 strikeouts. His outs prop sits at 18.5.
There’s a ton of familiarity with Wheeler within the Braves lineup, but Austin Riley, Marcell Ozuna, Ozzie Albies, and Matt Olson all have a batting average of .250 or worse in 20+ plus at-bats versus Wheeler.
I think we’re in for a good old-fashioned pitchers’ duel on Tuesday. Sale and Wheeler should both post some decently high strikeout totals. You can get Wheeler & Sale 6+ Ks around -140. The full game under or first five under gets you to plus money. There may be PA betting promos to utilize at your sportsbook of choice, otherwise FanDuel has a 50% home run profit boost capped at $10.
More runs should appear in the final two games of the season, but don’t expect much offensive production to begin the series.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.