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Phillies the Biggest Favorite on Wednesday’s MLB Slate
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Phillies are the heaviest favorite on Wednesday’s Major League Baseball slate.
It’s not really a surprise, though, right?
Zack Wheeler is on the mound and the Phils have a significantly better lineup than the Rockies.
Wheeler and Co. are a hefty -360 on the money line, but the price dips into the -140 to -150 range for the -1.5 run line.
You’re obviously not betting the ML price, but there are plenty of other ways to take advantage of the matchup.
You could simply bet the run line, which the Phils have covered in three of their four victories. Colorado has lost on the run line in its last two defeats.
The Rockies haven’t been great against righties in the early season. They are one of two teams to have one or zero homers off right-handed pitching. The Angels have zero. Colorado ranks 18th in batting average against RHPs, but the .208 BA looks much worse when you see it compared to the league-wide rank.
Conversely, the Phillies rank ninth in batting average against left-handed pitching, and oh by the way, there are some great head-to-head numbers inside the lineup against Kyle Freeland.
Nick Castellanos has three home runs and a .284 BA in 14 career at-bats against Freeland.
If you’re a member of the cult that believes Castellanos homers every time a famous person dies, well, Val Kilmer passed last night.
I would bet Castellanos to hit a home run, which you can do with DraftKings’ No Sweat Home Run Every Day promotion, based on the numbers against Freeland, but if you need the extra push to do so, you have it.
Trea Turner has seen Freeland the most, with two home runs and a .212 BA in 33 ABs, but it’s unclear as of writing this if he’ll be in the starting lineup.
Kyle Schwarber and Edmundo Sosa, who are tied for the team lead in hits with six, are a combined 1-for-19 against Freeland.
Schwarber is +400 to hit a home run at DK, compared to +290 at FanDuel, so if you want to risk it with the hot bat, that’s as good of a price you’ll get on Schwarbs all season at NJ betting apps or PA sports betting apps.
As for Wheeler, his strikeout prop sits at 8.5. The Rockies fanned seven times against Cristopher Sanchez on Monday and all starters have had at least seven Ks against them this season.
Wheeler can definitely get to nine Ks, but if that’s too high of a number for you, I’d either suggest to use the 7+ or 8+ strikeout options in Same Game Parlays, or look to Wheeler’s over/under 18.5 outs. Wheeler went six innings in his first start on Opening Day.
The Phillies run line, Castellanos 2+ total bases and Wheeler 7+ Ks gets you to +285. The run line, Wheeler 7+ Ks and Castellanos HR puts you at +950. Or you could simply take the run line and Wheeler 7 + Ks to get you to +105.
I wouldn’t go too crazy because the conditions aren’t as ideal as they were on Monday, but the Phils should still put up a few runs to support Wheeler and get the victory.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.