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Phillies vs. Reds Predictions & Picks: Phils Hotter than Hades on a Summer Day
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Welcome back to the chaotic rollercoaster that is mid-May baseball. The Philadelphia Phillies (25-23) continue to roll after pulling off a comeback 5-4 win in Game 1 at Citizens Bank Park.
We are looking to see if the Phillies can keep it going without Kyle Schwarber, who is out with illness for a second day in a row. They’re 16-4 since firing Rob Thomson and finding ways to win baseball games to salvage their season and propel themselves above .500 after starting 9-19 on the year.
The fun continues under the lights at Citizens Bank Park on Tuesday, May 19th. It’ll be Reds’ right hander Chase Burns vs. Phils lefty Jesus Luzardo.
Phillies vs. Reds Odds
- Moneyline: Phillies -142, Reds +119
- Total: O/U 8.5 Runs
- Point Spread: Phillies -1.5 (+149), Reds +1.5 (-180)
- Pitchers: RHP Chase Burns vs. LHP Jesus Luzardo
Odds are sourced from consensus bookmakers.
Phillies vs. Reds Prediction & Pick
The Pick: Phillies moneyline (-142)
Let’s look at the analytical reality of the situation: Philadelphia is an absolute wagon right now, winning eight of their last 10 matchups while the Reds post a mediocre 4-6 record over their last 10 games. The Phils are the way to go with PA betting promos and NJ sportsbook promos until they give us a reason to bet against them.
They do have Chase Burns going tonight, who has a 1.87 ERA and has allowed just one run and nine hits in three May starts. Luzardo, meantime, looked more like himself with six innings of 0-run baseball last Thursday in Boston.
The key is getting Burns’ pitch count up. He is an ace, but rarely throws more than seven innings. If the Phils can keep it close until the Reds go to the bullpen, they can plate a few late runs (+16 differential in innings 7 through 9) and come away with another good win.
Phillies Player Prop Picks & Predictions
Jesús Luzardo – Over 6.5 Pitcher Strikeouts (-155)
The Phillies starter has sat down 61 batters on strikes over his 49.2 innings of work—good for a staggering 11.05 strikeouts per nine innings. Sure, his mediocre 3-3 personal record suggests his offense occasionally forgets to wake up when he takes the mound, but his raw stuff is undeniably lethal. He gets to face a Reds lineup featuring guys who treat the batter’s box like a breezy windmill convention. Expect Luzardo to rack up the Ks early and often, clearing this modest line before the manager even thinks about making a call to the bullpen.
Chase Burns – Under 2.5 earned runs (-165)
Burns hasn’t allowed more than 2.5 earned runs since an April 10th start against the Angels. You can get this for -165 at betMGM, a good bet considering Schwarber is once again out of the lineup. You can pick up a betMGM bonus code here.