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What’s Next for Andrew Painter and the Phillies?
By Luke Arcaini
Published:
Andrew Painter was optioned to Triple-A on Wednesday afternoon after getting torched for six runs in two innings against the Marlins in a matinee loss.
Painter, who now holds a 7.06 ERA and 1.66 WHIP, has looked lost on the mound for a good portion of his rookie season. He has allowed four or more runs in his last four starts. He has not pitched past five innings since May 24th. He has not thrown more than 6.1 innings in an outing yet this season.
What’s wrong?
Well, it’s a mix of a lot of things, but his fastball takes the cake. There’s no life. It’s a dead pitch that he can’t locate at a high level right now. Painter, who was once a fastball-first pitcher coming out of high school, lost the movement on the pitch after Tommy John surgery. His fastball run value, according to Baseball Savant, sits in the 2nd percentile out of 100.
Hitters are just straight up crushing the four-seam. It’s averaging 96.5, and with no movement, probably looks closer to high 95s. That’s why it’s getting hit at a .404 clip with a .660 slugging percentage and just a 10% whiff rate. Painter has allowed 38 hits off of the pitch, along with six doubles and six home runs.
Painter’s offspeed pitches haven’t been horrible this year. The slider needs work, but his split finger has been a successful pitch. Unfortunately, his arsenal of secondary pitches isn’t good enough as a whole to makeup for his lost fastball.
“You can have the best secondary stuff in the world, but everything kind of plays off the fastball,” Painter said to reporters postgame.
The Phillies will search for answers back in AAA. There are mechanical issues that need to be fixed. Location is the top priority, along with finding his fastball again, the pitch that has gotten him this far. He hasn’t been able to miss bats at the clip needed. He looks overmatched against big-league hitters right now.
The demotion could’ve happened weeks ago if the Phillies had a true backup plan in the minors. They do not. They have Alan Rangel, who could make Painter’s next scheduled start. Rangel pitched on Wednesday in Lehigh Valley, so he’s at the same spot on the calendar.
Dave Dombrowski has explored trades for back-end starters, but it may be too early for teams to want to move an arm, according to Charlotte Varnes of The Athletic. The Phillies will have to get a starting pitcher at some point before the trade deadline. They do not have the depth to get through the rest of the season with the four guys in the majors right now. Cristopher Sanchez, Zack Wheeler, and Jesus Luzardo is a pretty damn good top three. The Phillies have won seven of Aaron Nola’s last eight starts. After that, it is bleak.
For now, the Phillies will try to fix Painter. They’re not giving up on him, and they shouldn’t. He was untouchable for a reason; the talent is still in the 23-year-old. But Painter has zero confidence on the mound right now. Nothing has gone particularly well for him since his debut.
The Phillies will make a corresponding move ahead of Thursday night’s series opener against the Mets. The assumption, as of now, is that Seth Johnson will come back up to the majors.
“The fastball’s just getting hit right now,” Painter said postgame. “So, I think we’ve just got to evaluate and just try to find out who I am as a pitcher right now.”
Luke Arcaini covers the Phillies for Crossing Broad. The wave is the worst thing is sports. Follow him on Twitter @ArcainiLuke