Sixers

Exploring the Season-Long Props for Joel Embiid, Paul George, and Tyrese Maxey

By Joe Tansey

Published: Oct 16th, 2024 · 3:43 PM EDT

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The hype train hasn’t exactly left the station for the 2024-25 Philadelphia 76ers.

Sure, Paul George is here to form a Big Three with Tyrese Maxey and Joel Embiid, but George’s preseason injury scare and Embiid’s likely absence from back-to-back games did not exactly accelerate said hype train.

We’re officially a week away from seeing the new-look Sixers on the floor for the first time against the Milwaukee Bucks, so it’s time to dig into some player futures.

Embiid’s inability to play back-to-backs is concerning, but the Sixers only play on consecutive days once before December.

There are 12 other back-to-back sets on the 2024-25 schedule, so if Embiid doesn’t play in any of the second contests in those sets and misses a few more due to general injury management, he isn’t winning the Most Valuable Player award.

However, there are plenty of other futures on the board that we can approach for Embiid, George, and Maxey, mainly their season averages.

FanDuel has certain thresholds, beginning at 20 points, five assists and six rebounds per game that you can bet on. The points per game props are set at every even number between 20 and 34. The assists per game ladder goes up to 12 and the rebounds per game ladder goes up to 14.

DraftKings listed 20, 23, 25 28, 30, 33, 35 and 40 points per game as season-long props. DK’s rebound props go up in multiples of two starting eight and its assist per game props go up in multiples in two from six.

Embiid’s averaged more than 30 points per game in each of the last three seasons. He’s averaged between 10 and 12 rebounds per game in the last five seasons, but he hasn’t gone over 12 boards per contest since the 2018-19 campaign.

DK has Embiid to average 10 rebounds per game at -450, while FD lists Embiid to have 11 boards per game at -175. Both sites list him at plus-money to average 12 boards per contest. I can tell you right now to not bet any of those props. Embiid is going to play roughly 60-65 regular-season games and the Sixers have an actual backup center in Andre Drummond that will probably play enough minutes to keep Embiid under 12 rebounds per game.

Maxey’s season assist average prop is a bit fascinating, though, since he has two other primary scorers around him.

He averaged 6.2 assists per game last season. George isn’t traditionally a key passer. The Sixers’ new acquisition has a career average of 3.7 assists per game that is inflated a bit from three seasons with 5+ assists per game with the Los Angeles Clippers.

Maxey will be the primary ball-handler, so it’s at least worth looking into betting on him increasing that total.

FanDuel lists Maxey at -200 to average 6 APG, +240 to sit at 7 APG and +1000 to record 8 APG. DraftKings’ props are priced at -150 for 6 APG and +1000 for 8 APG.

We should expect Maxey to at least maintain his assist numbers from a year ago, and I could make a case that the expectation is around seven helpers per game with a better scorer in George and better depth shooters across the roster. Eight assists per game may be too much of a stretch, but I think the 7 APG at FD is worth a look.

As for scoring, here are the props:

• Embiid 30+ PPG (-340 FD, -425 DK)
• Embiid 32+ PPG (+105 FD)
• Embiid 33+ PPG (+145 DK)
• Embiid 34+ PPG (+370 FD)
• Embiid 35+ PPG (+450 DK)
• Embiid 36+ PPG (+1100 FD)
• Maxey 24+ PPG (-210 FD)
• Maxey 25+ PPG (-130 DK)
• Maxey 26+ PPG (+175 FD)
• Maxey 28+ PPG (+550 FD, +500 DK)
• George 20 +PPG (-450 DK, -300 FD)
• George 22+ PPG (+120 FD)
• George 23+ PPG (+195 DK)
• George 24+ PPG (+410 FD)
• George 25+ PPG (+800 DK)

When Embiid plays, he’s the primary scorer, and he showed in limited action last season that he can still average a 30-plus point per game clip. He averaged 33.1 PPG across 66 games two seasons ago. That’s around the number we can expect if he isn’t playing the second end of back-to-backs.

George averaged over 22 points per game in each of the last four seasons. He’s going to be the secondary scorer on most nights, and when Embiid is down, he could put up totals that can bump up the average. There’s a realistic chance he cuts into Maxey’s 25.9 PPG from last season and both players sit in the low 20s.

That obviously benefits you more if you want to bet on George’s season-long props. I would look into George’s 22-to-24 PPG props as the best “value” on the board for the Sixers big three, and if you think along those lines, Maxey to have 7 APG has to be in play as well.

Those would be the only PA sports betting props I’d seriously consider from a season-long perspective. Game-by-game across all PA sportsbooks, and NJ sports betting apps, is a better approach to other props because of matchups, injuries, etc.