Sixers

Looking for Joel Embiid Prop Bet Value After Atrocious Serbia Game

By Kevin Kinkead

Published: Jul 30th, 2024 · 3:29 PM EDT

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The United States beat South Sudan 101-100 in an Olympics warmup game two weeks ago, but the oddsmakers don’t think Wednesday’s matchup is going to be competitive. 24 hours from tip, the U.S. is a 29.5 favorite on Pennsylvania sportsbook apps.

For local purposes, we’re keeping an eye on Joel Embiid, who had an atrocious opener against Serbia. Embiid finished with 4 points and 2 rebounds and shot 2-5 from the floor and 0-3 from the foul line in 11 minutes of play. He turned the ball over twice and committed three personal fouls.

Going back to the South Sudan warmup, Embiid played 18 minutes and put up 14 points, 7 rebounds, and two assists while shooting 5-6 from the field. His best warmup was against Germany, when he went for 15/8/5 and shot 8 for 11 from the floor over 21 minutes. Taking those exhibitions and the Serbia game both into consideration, here are some thoughts on his individual props for Wednesday’s game:

• over/under 10.5 points – The over is -113. Seems like a reasonable price considering how he performed against South Sudan previously.
• over/under 16.5 points + rebounds – Embiid very easily cleared this in the final exhibition games. It seems as though the oddsmakers aren’t sure what his minutes will look like after the poor showing in the Olympic opener, so it explains the low total.
• over/under 5.5 rebounds – You can get the over at -104 on NJ sports betting apps. The under is currently priced around -122.
• to record a double/double – This is +1000 right about now. Joel isn’t going to throw 10 assists and it’s unlikely he gets over the rebound hump for this to cash.
• rebound ladders – You might want to look into Embiid at +300 to record 8+ rebounds or 6+ rebounds at -104. These are numbers he cleared in the exhibitions. If you want to build a same-game parlay with rebounds, 4+ is currently priced around -400.
• to score 15+ points – +270 on this right now. Seems risky with all of the great scorers around him. He’d need to get to the foul line a few times for this to cash.

You’re basically determining if the Serbia game was a one-off clunker against Nikola Jokic or the norm going forward. Did Steve Kerr see enough in the opener to limit Embiid’s minutes going forward? If that’s the case, then he’s probably not going to clear these totals. You want to see him out there for at least 17-18 minutes to feel comfortable about that points O/U or point + rebound total.

Of course, if these were sure bets, then we wouldn’t call it gambling. If the unpredictability of total minutes is making you uneasy, maybe this is a one-off situation where we go to US online casinos for a break, then take a look at the props for the Puerto Rico game.