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Should You Bet the Wolves to Stay Alive Against the Mavericks?
By Joe Tansey
Published:
The Minnesota Timberwolves have not lost an elimination game yet this postseason.
Anthony Edwards and Co. kept their season alive in Game 4 against the Dallas Mavericks and are now a 4.5-point favorite for Thursday night’s Game 5.
Not only are the Wolves 3-0 when facing elimination, they have three wins of five points or more in those games, which is significant given Thursday’s spread.
Game 4 also marked the first time Minnesota covered the spread in the series. The Wolves covered in all of their postseason wins with the exception of Game 1 in the first round against the Phoenix Suns.
So it seems pretty simple then, right? If you think the Wolves win, they’re going to cover as well.
Well, if it’s that easy, you should probably bet the under as well.
The under is 5-0 in the last two rounds in Minnesota victories.
The Wolves held the Nuggets under 100 points in each of their second-round wins and Dallas only scored 100 points in Game 4.
Conversely, four of Dallas’ last five victories have had the over hit. The Over is 7-4 in Dallas’ 11 playoff victories this season.
The Mavericks are an astonishing 10-1 against the spread in victories, and yup you guessed it, they have covered a single point spread in defeat.
The trends do not always line up in that fashion. In fact, if it were always this easy, we’d all be millionaires and I wouldn’t be typing up this sports betting advice at all.
The more difficult edge to figure out is the player props, especially with Dereck Lively’s status unknown. He missed Game 4 after taking a knee to the back of the head in Game 3. The fact that he even might play is incredible.
Lively was a game-changer in the series for the Mavs. He had 21 points and 20 rebounds in Games 1 and 2.
Lively’s absence could also explain why Anthony Edwards had his best game of the series. There was more space around the rim to attack for the Wolves offense. He ended up with 29 points.
Edwards should be the top player targeted by all player prop bettors for Game 5 because he is the best player on the team facing elimination. He attempted 49 field goals in the last two games compared to 33 shot attempts in Games 1 and 2. Edwards’ point prop is set at 28.5 for Game 5.
Edwards has also contributed a ton of rebounds and assists in the series, and because of that, his rebounds prop sits at 7.5 and assists prop is at 6.5. He’s had at least seven assists in every game against Dallas and at least nine boards in three of those contests.
Luka Doncic has been equally as good of an all-around player. He has two triple-doubles in the series, so it’s no surprise to see both of his rebounds and assist props at 8.5. Those two props are easily attainable, but he’s had more variance than Edwards in those categories in the series. He had seven boards and five assists in Game 3, as well as six rebounds and eight helpers in Game 1.
If you’re betting this game with PA sports betting apps or NJ sports betting apps, and want to pair Doncic and Edwards in a Same Game Parlay, the best way to do it is with points. I would pair their 30+ points props together at plus money. Doncic has three 30-point games in the series and Edwards’ shot volume will be sky high in an elimination game.
Joe Tansey writes sports betting posts for Crossing Broad and also covers the Philadelphia Union for his Substack site, Union Soccer Blog.