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Sixers vs. Heat Odds: Line, Prediction and Betting Analysis
By Kyle Scott
Published:
The Sixers return from the All-Star break to take on the Miami Heat at home at 7:00 p.m. at the Wells Fargo Center. Here’s everything you need to know about betting on the game.
Betting odds
The Sixers are currently 6-point favorites at most legal sportsbooks in New Jersey, including DraftKings and FanDuel. No total has been set for the game yet. The Sixers are dominant at home with a record of 23-7, but they are only 16-14 at “The Center.”
TV and radio schedule
The game will be broadcast on NBC Sports Philly+ in Philly and on FOX Sports Sun in Miami. It will be broadcast on 97.5 The Fanatic in Philly and 790 The Ticket in South Florida.
The big story
Joel Embiid’s injury was announced by the team on Wednesday. They said he was experiencing left knee soreness and that results of an MRI were negative. He will be out for one week. The team brought back their popular “load management” phrasing in explaining his absence.
This comes off an All-Star game appearance for Embiid, who is of course no stranger to injury.
Furkan Korkmaz also has a torn meniscus in his right knee and is out.
These are two disappointing news bits for the Sixers to begin their stretch run for.
With Tobias Harris and Jimmy Butler now in tow, they have ambitions of winning the East, but they’ll need Embiid to do so.
Alternate lines
Right now, there is only one alternate line being offer with the Sixers at -6.5 (-103), but more are expected to be posted before tip.
ATS info to know
The Sixers are 28-30-2 ATS this season while the Heat are 29-27 ATS. The 76ers are 16-14 ATS at the Wells Fargo Center, but Miami is 18-11 ATS away from home, making them the NBA’s second-most profitable road team this season. Miami has also excelled as an underdog, posting a 18-10 ATS mark in that role while also going 12-7 ATS as road underdog. In terms of road/home, favorite/underdog angles, Miami has performed decidedly better. The head-to-head matchup, however, has been split. The Sixers are 1-0 ATS against the Heat this season, but only 2-2-1 ATS dating back to the start of the 2017-2018 season.
The new-look Sixers are both 3-1 SU and ATS since the Tobias Harris trade, but the absence of Joel Embiid looms large in this one. The Sixers are only 1-3 ATS and SU without Embiid this season, including three-straight losses. Among those losses include a 34-point defeat in Portland, a 16-point loss in Denver, and a 2-point loss at home to the Hawks as a 9.5-point favorite. Certainly, the Sixers are better equipped to handle Embiid’s absence now then they were earlier this season, but it should still give bettors pause.
Interestingly, Philadelphia has excelled on Thursdays this season going 5-0 ATS, a far cry from their 3-9 ATS mark on Thursdays last season. Go figure. Also, the Sixers have been very good when favored between six and eight points at home over the last two season. They are 7-3 ATS at home with that spread range when playing at the Wells Fargo Center this season and 13-6 ATS since the start of last season.
Finally, it’s worth noting that 67% of spread bets but only 32% of point-spread money currently backs the Sixers. They’re 1-2 ATS in games in which they receive at least 65% percent of the total point spread bets, but less than half the money this season; however, NBA teams have been surprisingly profitable when receiving 65% of the total bets and between only 30-35% of the money. They are 13-6 ATS the last 19 times such a disparity has occurred.
Kyle Scott is the founder and editor of CrossingBroad.com. He has written for CBS Philly and Philly Voice, and been a panelist or contributor on NBC Sports Philly, FOX 29 and SNY TV, as well as a recurring guest on 97.5 The Fanatic, 94 WIP, 106.7 The Fan and other stations. He has more than 10 years experience running digital media properties and in online advertising and marketing.