Posts for playoffs

Snow The Goalie: Down to the Wire

Russ Joy - March 13, 2019

Anthony and Russ discuss how the Flyers have gotten to within striking distance of the final wild card with 13 games to play. They discuss the job Scott Gordon’s done as coach, their dominance against the Islanders, recap the win over Ottawa, the scoring surge under Gordon, Carter Hart’s return to net, and the Flyers’ off-season plans. Plus, will the Flyers and other teams in the league consider a pursuit of restricted free agents Brayden Point and Mitch Marner?

Please subscribe to the show ([iTunes] [Google Play] [Stitcher] [RSS]), leave a 5 star review, and follow us on Twitter: @AntSanPhilly @JoyOnBroad

Plus, don’t forget to check out “The Press Row Show” with Anthony and Russ for pregame and intermission coverage of Flyers home games LIVE from press row of Wells Fargo Center! The show streams on Twitter/Periscope via Crossing Broad, Anthony, and Russ’ accounts and Facebook Live via the Crossing Broad page.

Check out the other shows on the Crossing Broad Podcast Network including: Crossing Broadcast: A Philly Sports PodcastCrossed Up: A Phillies PodcastIt’s Always Soccer in Philadelphia, and Crossing Broad FC: A Soccer Podcast.

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Here’s The Flyers-Capitals First Round Playoff Schedule

Jim Adair - April 11, 2016

The NHL has announced the schedule for the first round series between the Flyers and Capitals. All currently scheduled games will air on NBC Sports Network, except game 2, which will air on CNBC. Games 3, 4, and 6 (if necessary) will be in Philadelphia. Check the whole schedule below:

Game 1

  • @ Washington on Thursday, April 14 at 7 p.m. on NBCSN, CSN Philly

Game 2

  • @ Washington on Saturday, April 16th at 7 p.m. on CNBC, CSN Philly

Game 3

  • @ Philadelphia on Monday, April 18th at 7 p.m. on NBCSN, CSN Philly

Game 4

  • @ Philadelphia on Wednesday, April 20th at 7 p.m. on NBCSN, CSN Philly

Game 5*

  • @ Washington on Friday, April 22nd. Time and network TBD, CSN Philly

Game 6*

  • @ Philadelphia on Sunday, April 24th. Time and network TBD

Game 7*

  • @ Washington on Wednesday, April 27th. Time and network TBD, CSN Philly

 

*if necessary

UPDATE: CSN Philly will air all games, except Game 6.

Claude Giroux Thinks the Flyers Are “No Doubt” a Playoff Team, Is Probably Wrong

Jim Adair - February 3, 2015

Photo Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Photo Credit: Andrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports

Right now, the Flyers aren’t a playoff team. If the season ended today, they’d finish nine points out of a playoff spot. They have a 3.9% chance to make the playoffs, and that’s on a slight uptick (after a significant drop):

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Still, Claude Giroux believes. “There’s no doubt that we’re a playoff team,” he told Neil Hartman. “We’re going to prove it in the future.” It’s not quite as ridiculous as Ben Revere’s late-season statement that the Phils were “busting their tails to get that second wild card spot” while they had a 0.0% chance at it, but it’s still a long shot.

Giroux promised a playoff spot last year, but that was after a 1-7-0 start, which gave the team a lot more time to right the ship. Even if, at the time, Kyle called G’s remark about only being six points out “the dumbest athlete quote I’ve ever read. Ever.” Also last year, the Flyers went from a 4.37% chance to make the playoffs to actually making the post-season. So, it’s possible. But last season, that 4.37% chance was the season’s low point, in November. This year, there’s a lot less sand in the hourglass.

FiveThirtyEight Reminds You that the Eagles Aren’t Out of it Yet

Jim Adair - December 18, 2014

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But it doesn’t look good: We all know this weekend’s Eagles game is a must-win, because losing would put a nail in the coffin of their season and also be super embarrassing. But the Dallas/Indianapolis matchup is just as important (maybe more so) in determining the Eagles’ immediate fate. FiveThirtyEight, as always, has done the math on this.

If the Eagles win, Dallas’ chances to make the playoffs drop only down to 77.8%, while the Eagles’ chances leap up to 48.9% — actually not too shabby. But the biggest break the Eagles could get (obviously) would be for Dallas to lose to the Colts. With a Dallas loss, the Eagles’ playoff chances go from 39.5% to 57.8%. With a Cowboys win, they drop to 23.5%. And if Dallas beats the Colts or the Eagles lose to the Redskins, the Cowboys’ playoff chances hop up to an almost identical percentage in the 93% range.

And finally, in totally (hopefully) unrealistic odds, if the Redskins beat the Eagles, the Birds’ playoff chances dip down to 7.8%, which might as well be a five-win season for some.

The Eagles Can Give Themselves a 75% Chance of Getting a Bye with a Win Against the Seahawks

Jim Adair - December 4, 2014

538 bye

After beating the Cowboys on the road for sole possession of first place in the NFC East, it almost feels like the big game is behind us for now. But Sunday’s afternoon’s game against Seattle has major implications too, especially for the first round bye.

According to FiveThirtyEight, the Eagles currently have a 48.8% chance of getting said bye. With a win against Seattle, that percentage jumps by 25.3%(!), and a loss drops it down 29.4%. That swing of 54.7% means the Eagles’ bye chances increase to 74.1% with a win, and slip down to 19.4% with a loss.

Though there is much more at stake in the AFC’s games this week — another 55 point swing for Miami in terms of playoff chances — the Seahawks/Eagles matchup is the most important in the NFC.

The big game against Dallas is over, sure. But now it’s on to the next one. And after that? Another potential first-place-on-the-line clash.

[The Eagles don’t hold all their own, ahem, Cards yet. Arizona and Green Bay are both 9-3, too, and hold tiebreakers over the Birds. But, the Cardinals appear to be heading in the wrong direction and have to play the Chiefs, Rams, Seahawks and 49ers.]

Check out all the scenarios here.

H/T to (@smokesdawg88)

The ESPN Playoff Machine Shows All the Ways the Eagles’ Season Could Shake Out

Jim Adair - November 19, 2014

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Last weekend’s Eagles game was not pretty. The Packers put about three wins’ worth of play into one game, but thankfully the Eagles could only walk away with one extra loss. In many ways, the Mark Sanchez-led Eagles are a big mystery going forward, and the playoffs are up in the air. The ESPN Playoff Machine is going to help us through this, however. That image above is how the playoffs would look if the season ended today. The season does not end today. So, let us take a look at a variety of outcomes.

offensive rank

The above situation, perhaps the most unlikely of the bunch, is what it would look like if the team with the highest-ranked offense won every game for the rest of the season. Since the Eagles offense currently ranks near the top, they win out. But on the other side?

def rank

With the better defense winning each game, the Eagles are in trouble. They’d end up 8-8 and missing the playoffs. Luckily, this might actually be less likely than that #1 seed above it.

win out at home

If the Eagles win out at home — and so does everyone else — there is good news and bad news. The good news is they can be proud of an 8-0 record on the year at Lincoln Financial Field. The bad news is that they’d face the Packers in the first round. That matchup, as we saw last week, is less than ideal, but being at the Linc instead of being at Lambeau could make a huge difference.

win pct

Using win percentage as the difference maker leads to all kinds of insanity. This is the bizarro playoff picture where the Patriots and Cardinals are the only teams to make the cut without a tie, and this would also require the Eagles and Cowboys to tie both of their matchups, which may implode both cities.

game by game 1

And finally, that is what happens if I predict every game for the rest of the season correctly (perhaps the least likely of all the scenarios): The Saints are embarrassing but make the playoffs. The Eagles and Dallas each take one from the other at home, and end up facing off at the Linc in the first round. And every team in the AFC North has a better record than the Saints, which will lead to more talk of restructuring the playoffs.

Any of these scenarios could be right — or completely, amazingly wrong — but when you look at strength of schedule, offensive rank, home field advantage, and all the other options here, the Eagles still look to be in pretty good shape. You can pick each game for the remainder of the year and see how your playoff bracket would shake out over here.

FiveThirtyEight Continues to Place Cowboys Atop the Odds to Win the Division

Jim Adair - October 29, 2014

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Over at FiveThirtyEight, when they aren’t previewing the NBA, they’re continuing to breakdown the NFL. One of the ways they’ve chosen to do that this year is by adopting “Elo Ratings” — more commonly used in chess and modified for Association Football — to the NFL, and using those ratings to predict wins, losses, and playoff odds. The rating takes into account past success, win margins, history, etc. (more is explained over here if you want to read into it).

In weeks one through four, the ratings had the Eagles favored to win the division. But in Week 5, the birds and Cowboys switched spots, though the Eagles have never dipped below a 36% chance to win the division or a 51% chance to make the playoffs since then. Also over that time, the Eagles raised their projected wins from 9.6 to 10.6 (now back down at 10.1), while the Cowboys, who peaked at 12.0, are now just above the Eagles at 10.8.

About those playoff odds, Neil Paine at FiveThirtyEight said:

At any rate, Dallas’s upset loss had real implications for the NFC East derby. Despite the Eagles’ loss, the Cowboys’ odds of winning the division dropped from 66 percent to 53 percent. Philadelphia’s chances jumped from 33 percent to 42 percent. Meanwhile, both teams lost ground in the wild card race — Dallas’s odds fell by 2 percentage points, and the Eagles’ chances dropped by 14 percentage points, more than any other team in the league. Much of that lost wild-card probability was soaked up by the NFC West, where Arizona, Seattle and San Francisco’s chances increased by a combined 22 percentage points.

If both teams continue on this path, it could set up a Thanksgiving Day showdown for the ages. With that in mind, a part of me would love to see a 9-2 Eagles team face off against a 9-2 Cowboys team, but that’s the thinking part. The feeling part of me wants to see Dallas at 6-5 by then.

Ben Revere Misplayed a Hit so Badly, Andrew McCutchen got a Stand-Up Inside the Park Home Run

Jim Adair - September 11, 2014

Hey, we haven’t checked in with the Phillies in a while, let’s see how they’re doing:

Feel free to watch that video a few times. It may take a couple of views to realize that yes, Ben Revere made a half-assed attempt to catch a ball he could not have caught even if he were two-feet taller. And yes, Grady Sizemore, playing right, didn’t even budge until the ball already ricocheted of the wall and in his general direction. And yes, Andrew McCutchen, on what was a hard-hit but definitely playable ball, scored a stand-up inside the park home run.

That inside the parker also tied the game up, while Russell Martin also homered in the fifth inning, giving the Pirates (and pitcher VANCE WORLEY) a lead they would not relinquish. None of this really matters though, because the season is over, right? Wrong. According to Ben Revere — the same one above — this team is trying to make history:

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The team currently in that second wild card spot is the Pittsburgh Pirates, the team that manhandled them last night. They are nine games back of the Pirates with 17 games to play. Baseball Prospectus gives the Phillies a 0.0% chance of getting that 2nd wild card spot. In case you were wondering what that looks like, the Phillies are that flat red line on the bottom:

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So this season is over, but maybe we can get a fresh start next year, right? RIGHT?