NBA Over/Under Wins That You Might Want to Check Out

Photo credit: Thomas B. Shea-USA TODAY Sports

The NBA season is upon us and hope springs eternal for all most fan bases. The sportsbooks aren’t emotionally invested in your teams and don’t care if your first round draft pick is once again shelved to start the season. I, however, take the over/under numbers they set and cross-reference it with the human element: old faces in new places (Melo on the Rockets), moronic trades for watered-down stars (Trae Young isn’t even diet Steph Curry), and guys who will do whatever it takes to get off their current teams (Jimmy Butler and the Wolves). The end result is a list of team win over/unders you can have some confidence in. I’m by no means endorsing wagering money on my musing, but if you decide to wager a couple of cheeseburgers on Atlanta getting under 23.5 wins, have at it, sport.


If only relegation existed

Let’s talk about the aforementioned Atlanta Hawks. They completed a mind-boggling set of moves this off-season. In addition to trading away the #3 overall pick Luca Doncic for #5 overall pick Trae Young and a top-five protected first round pick in 2019, Atlanta sent away former starting PG Dennis Schröder and to the Oklahoma City Thunder as part of a three-way deal with OKC and Philly that also netted the Hawks Justin Anderson and an immediately-waived Carmelo Anthony. As part of that deal, they also gave away Mike Muscala to the Sixers. The Hawks will trot out a starting lineup of Young, overpaid Kent Bazemore, promising Taurean Prince, John Collins, and former Process Sixer Dewayne Dedmon. Jeremy Lin, Villanova’s Omari Spellman, the aforementioned Anderson, and 41-year-old Vince Carter will try to spark a thin bench.


SugarHouse and DraftKings: 24.5 (Over: +100/Under: -125)

FanDuel: 23.5 (Over: -116/Under: -102)

BetStars: 23.5 (Over: -125/ Under: +100)

Take the Under.


King me!

I don’t think I’ve ever been more surprised by a team’s off-season as I was by that of the Los Angeles Lakers. They got LeBron to commit to four years (good), poached Rajon Rondo from the Pelicans via free agency (good), replaced Julius Randle and Brook Lopez with JaVale McGee (uhhhhh), signed Kentavious Caldwell-Pope to an outlandish 1 year/$12 million deal, and gave a contract to former LeBron nemesis Lance Stephenson. The Lakers won 35 games last year and although the Western conference is stronger than the East, the Lakers are poised for a big jump. There’s been a huge burden taken off of Lonzo Ball and Brandon Ingram, the latter of whom is going to benefit the most from LeBron’s ability to set him up for easy baseline looks if he improves as an off-ball cutter. It shouldn’t be long until Josh Hart replaces KCP in the lineup, and Kyle Kuzma will likely build off a solid rookie campaign to solidify the frontcourt rotation. Ultimately, I can’t bring myself to betting against LeBron. Would anyone really be surprised if he carried this group of rapscallions to the third seed in the West? Anything is possible.


SugarHouse and DraftKings: 48.5 (Over: -112/Under: -112)

FanDuel: 48.5 (Over: -108/Under: -108)

BetStars: Off the board, but they are offering an odds boost at +1800 for the Lakers to win it all

Take the Over.


Who needs a King?

The Cleveland Cavaliers are the ultimate chip-on-the-shoulder squad. I know Kevin Love’s health is far from a certainty, but the team has vets who contributed to the 2016 title: Love, JR Smith (yes, he cost them Game 1 of the 2017-18 Finals), and Tristan Thompson. George Hill might be a bit of an overpaid hot mess and Kyle Korver is a year older, but the Cavs have a motivated Rodney Hood playing for a new contract, promising draft pick Colin Sexton, and Jordan Clarkson. Cedi Osman is also poised for an increase in minutes and could be a darkhorse for most improved player. Is the team great? No. Is the conference trash? Yes.


SugarHouse and DraftKings: 30.5 (Over: -125/Under: +100)

FanDuel: 30.5 (Over: -110/Under: -110)

BetStars: Off the board

Take the Over.


Howling at the Moon

Minnesota is currently a team in disarray. Their best player, Jimmy Butler, has reportedly gone on profanity-laced tirades during practice and appears to be at an impasse with the team in fulfilling his trade request. If I were able to rely on a season of Jimmy Butler along with talented but underwhelming Andrew Wiggins and Karl-Anthony Towns – the recipient of a 5 year/$190 million super-max contract – I’d encourage you to take the over. However, I cannot fathom a situation in which Butler plays out the entire season with Minnesota. By the trade deadline, Head Coach/President of Basketball Operations Tom Thibodeau will be forced to sell the disgruntled player for pennies on the dollar. In an even more competitive conference than a year ago, last year’s 8th seed could very well be on the outside looking in.


SugarHouse and DraftKings: 43.5 (Over: +135/Under: -167)

FanDuel: 43.5 (Over: +116/Under: -136)

BetStars: Off the board

Take the Under.


We have liftoff

Gone are veterans Trevor Ariza and Luc Mbah a Moute, in comes Carmelo Anthony. On its surface, there are questions as to whether last year’s leader in wins (65) can rise to the occasion once again. There’s a lingering sentiment in league circles that Rockets GM Daryl Morey has another move in his arsenal, with some opining that the Wolves’ Jimmy Butler could be the primary target. A package built around swingmen PJ Tucker and/or Eric Gordon would be costly, effectively depleting any backcourt depth behind Chris Paul and James Harden. Regardless of such a trade, the over/under is, in my estimation, low for a team that was one Chris Paul injury away from advancing to and winning an NBA title.


SugarHouse and DraftKings: 55.5 (Over: -125/Under: +100)

FanDuel: 55.5 (Over: -140/Under: +110)

BetStars: 55.5 (Over: -111/Under: -111)

Take the Over.


I wouldn’t touch these totals

The Sixers (53.5 on FanDuel, 54.5 on SugarHouse) and Celtics (57.5) are frightening bets. I can’t in good confidence advise anyone to touch the Sixers’ total. On the other hand, if healthy Boston could hit 60 wins in a weakened conference. My hesitance on Boston has to do with young, scrappy teams making every game against the C’s their personal title game night in and night out. Boston’s depth is going to cause nightmares, but it’s tough to earn 58+ wins in a season.

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11 Responses

  1. Cuz last saw his minuscule pud taffy in 1986. Its been hidden ever since by that fat tub of goo around his waste

    1. What is most amazing is the Cuz wouldn’t challenge my ratings despite the fact that my show is the same as it was a decade ago. What a big tub of goo he is!

  2. How bout that guy callin in talkin bout his moms sausage n peppers? That was awesome. I love it when the Cuz talks about families and being Italian.

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