We’re 24 hours from opening day. The sun is shining. The snow has melted. It’s time for baseball and esports in South Philadelphia. More importantly, let’s take a look at Bryce Harper odds for MVP, home run totals and other such season-long prop bets available at NJ sportsbooks.

Braves/Phils Thursday afternoon, and your boy Bryce Harper is the favorite to win the National League MVP at DraftKings Sportsbook.

Bryce Harper MVP Odds

DraftKings has Harper as the favorite at +400 to win the NL MVP. You can bet on these odds here.

Mike Trout, who you may have heard of, is +150 to win the AL MVP. DraftKings lists these favorites as well:

  • AL Cy Young: Chris Sale (+300)
  • NL Cy Young: Max Scherzer (+260)
  • AL Rookie of the Year: Vlad Guerrero Jr. (+110)
  • NL Rookie of the Year: Victor Robles (+225)

Harper, of course, won the MVP in 2015 as a 22-year-old(!) when he put up a ridiculous 1.109 OPS, leading the league in home runs, on-base percentage, slugging percentage and runs scored.

This was followed up by a few relatively “down” years, but Harper is now 26 and just entering the prime of his career in a ballpark that is very favorable to left-handed hitters. Surrounded by the likes of Rhys Hoskins and J.T. Realmuto. You could probably place worse bets.

Opening Day

Will Harper hit a home run on Thursday?

bryce harper odds boost

DraftKings is offering the following odds boost:

  • Boost: +360
  • Max Bet: $50
  • Max Winnings: $180

In addition, DraftKings has just added a boost for Harper to hit two home runs on Opening Day:

  • Boost: +2250
  • Max Bet: $5
  • Max Winnings: $112.50

Don’t mind if I do! You can bet here.

Those are favorable odds boosts, especially when you consider Harper’s career numbers against Julio Teheran, who starts for the Braves in the season opener.

In 40 at-bats, Harper has eight home runs, 19 RBI, 11 walks, and a 1.702 OPS against Teheran. 18 hits in those 40 at-bats is good for a .450 batting average.

Here’s video evidence:

https://twitter.com/starting9/status/981334453254574080?s=21

Other odds

Here’s some of the miscellaneous Bryce Harper stuff DraftKings is offering:

  • Most MLB Home Runs: +1400
  • Most MLB Runs: +1600
  • League RBI Leader: +2200
  • HR over/under 34.5: -125 and -106
  • RBI over/under 96.5: -115 and -115
  • Player with most home runs head to head: Harper +105, Rhys Hoskins -139

Some notes on these:

Harper finished with 34 home runs last year, which was 16th in Major League Baseball. He hit 29 in 2017 to finish 42nd. Over the last three years, the home run leaders have finished with 47 (Trumbo), 59 (Stanton), and 48 (Davis). Bryce hasn’t finished with 40+ homers since the 2015 MVP year, which was his best single-season performance in that area.

Here are Bryce’s home run numbers over the course of his career:

  • 2012: 139 games, 22
  • 2013: 118 games, 20
  • 2014: 100 games, 13
  • 2015: 153 games, 42
  • 2016: 147 games, 24
  • 2017: 111 games, 29
  • 2018: 159 games, 34

As for runs, Harper was 11th last year with 103. Mookie Betts and Francisco Lindor scored 129 each. Charlie Blackmon led the league with 137 runs the year prior while Harper hit the plate 95 times. Bryce has a 162-game run average of 107 over the course of his career.

Harper finished 15th last year with 100 RBI. That’s a career high for him against a 162-game average of 91.

On the over/under totals, Harper’s 162 game averages for home runs and RBI are 32 and 91, respectively, which would both hit the under. Keep in mind he’s playing home games in a hitter’s ballpark now. Dan Roche at NBC Sports Philadelphia took Harper’s Nationals Park spray chart, did an overlay with Citizens Bank Park, and concluded that Harper would have hit 9 or 10 more home runs in CBP last season. That’s something to definitely be aware of when looking through these numbers.

And head to head, Harper and Hoskins both hit 34 home runs last year. Rhys, in a smaller sample size, has a 162 game average of 41 home runs, which clips Harper’s 32 number. It’s tricky when you consider that Hoskins has only played basically 1.5 MLB seasons, but in 2017 he hit 18 home runs in 170 at-bats over the course of 50 games, while last year he hit 34 in 558 at-bats over the course of 153 games.

Phils/Braves Thursday afternoon, let’s play baseball.

 

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