Well, well, well! Fiction cannnnnn be fun, but I find the reference section much more enlightening.

Really, I just wanted to use that Ace Ventura quote in a story, but since I don’t post much anymore, I had to squeeze it in here. It fits, though. Because the Sixers and Raptors have unveiled their true selves, and we now see a Sixers team capable of making a deep run.

Current odds

Series East Championship
DraftKings -129 +300 +1200
SugarHouse -129 +300 +1200
PointsBet -125 +350 +1400
FanDuel -130 +310 +1100

It’s a far cry from where we were after Game 1, when the Raptors were prohibitive favorites to win the East:

Today, they’re +290.

Like I said, reference section.

 

Oddities

Despite wiping the floor with the Raptors – once in Toronto, once in Philly – and being the overall favorite to win the series, the Sixers find themselves the underdog yet again in Game 4 and, as you can see above, behind the Raptors to win the East.

The sportsbooks and bettors clearly aren’t fully sold on the Sixers, still giving the Raptors better long-term odds and letting basic math and probability take over for the series itself.

I checked with DraftKings, and they confirmed as much. Sixers are obviously better positioned to win the series, but Raptors still viewed as having a better chance against the Celtics or Bucks, and against the West.

 

Game 4

DraftKings +2
SugarHouse +2
PointsBet +1.5
FanDuel +1

If you like the Sixers, bet them now at +1.5 or +2. I’m not certain that I do, but I can’t imagine the line getting further than it was before Game 3 (1.5-2) given that the Sixers destroyed the Raptors, who looked lost, confused and, frankly, like they gave up in Game 3. Kyle Lowry has been putrid in this series.

The public sees the Raptors as the better team, but that might no longer be the actual case as the Sixers are now 13-4 straight up and 11-6 ATS with their starting lineup. For the first time, they looked like a fully jelled unit last night.

Home teams in Game 4 who won the previous one or two games are 58-53 outright (13-9 when they’ve won previous two) and 55-53-3 ATS (12-8-2 when the they’ve won previous two). So the trends do work in the Sixers’ favor.

However, we’ve seen some wild outliers in this series.

In Game 1, Kawhi Leonard scored 45 points (tied a season high) and was +26, his third-best mark of the season.

In Game 3, the Sixers shot 43% from three (10-23), including 3-4 from Embiid, who was a season-high +31. The Raptors shot 25% (7-27). Even a couple of well-timed threes would change the completion of a game.

We’ve yet to see a truly even performance between the teams, and I suspect it comes in Game 4, justifying the narrow line, which I think should be in the Sixers’ favor given Embiid’s health, home court advantage, and the fact that they looked so good the last two games.

So again, if you like the Sixers, I’d hop on them now before the line flips.

 

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