I’m on vacation in Key West right now, so I’d be lying if I told you that I took in every pitch of the series opener between the Braves and Phillies last night. Fortunately, I think I got the gist of how things went down.

  • Bryce Harper, Maikel Franco, and J.T. Realmuto each failed in big sports during the early innings with RISP.
  • Jake Arrieta was sharp early, but a Franco error helped sabotage his ugly fifth inning which effectively ended the game. I think this was the hit right here when the reality set in that it wasn’t going to be the Phillies’ night:

  • And it effectively ended the game because Gabe Kapler correctly elected to wave the white flag by going to Cole Irvin in the sixth instead of using his better relievers to keep it “close” and play make believe for an extra hour in a game the Phillies weren’t going to come back to win.

“Oh, but you can’t just quit in the sixth inning! It sends a bad message! It was only four runs!”

The Braves had a 93% win probability after the top of the fifth inning. The Phillies aren’t built to overcome big deficits – they’re also injured, light on viable options, and thus were wise to save the limited resources they have available for tonight. Angry fan guy out there, you can get juiced up with your false bravado and “we’re gonna fight, fight, fight – because we’re from Philly and that’s what we do” stuff, but that game was donezo after the fifth last night.

So the developments above added up to a sobering 9-2 loss which dropped the Phillies 6.5 games back of the Braves, one that sets up two must-win games if the Phillies have any designs of making an unexpected and improbable run at a division crown.

Since I’m not doing separate game and betting posts today, I need to drop in some stats that absolutely blow my mind. Now feels like the right time to do it.

  • Bryce Harper and Rhys Hoskins are far down the list of the Phillies’ biggest problems, but they also have two combined home runs in 93 combined second half at-bats. Credit to those guys for remaining fairly productive even with their absence of power, but the total lack of pop in the middle of the order is crazy and totally unexpected.
  • If you throw in J.T. Realmuto’s two homers in 44 second half ABs, the Phillies have gotten four homers from their No. 3-5 hitters in 137 ABs. That’s one homer in every 34.25 ABs from the heart of the order. That’s so bad, and it’s even worse when juxtaposed with a Phillies pitching staff that has allowed 170 homers this season, 13 more than the next closest team in the NL (Colorado).

More on this, along with some betting thoughts on tonight’s game – after the jump.

  • Speaking of Realmuto, the guy is rock solid behind the plate. Good receiver, good arm, and a solid hitter, but his OPS has declined each month this season, and he’s hitting .242 with a .595 OPS with RISP. He’s also hitting .190 with a .495 OPS with two outs and RISP. Harper (.367 OBP) and Hoskins (.401 OBP) have done a good job reaching base, but Realmuto hasn’t consistently demonstrated that his bat plays in the No. 5 spot of this lineup. On this team, it probably has to, but he seems better suited to hit sixth or seventh. At any rate, they need more out of him over the next two months.
  • Jake Arrieta failed to complete six innings last night, notable because Phillies starters other than Aaron Nola have produced precisely one quality start since Zach Eflin went 6 IP while allowing three earned runs on June 29. That’s a span of 15 games.
  • And finally, did you know that 24-year-old J.P. Crawford has a .781 OPS this season? That’s significantly higher than that of Cesar Hernandez (.728) and Maikel Franco (.726), while also slightly higher than the guy he was traded for, Jean Segura (.761). I only looked this up because this gem popped into my Twitter feed this morning:

Phillies-Braves Betting Preview

Those of you in PA, you now can bet on iOS with SugarHouse Sportsbook in PA. You are required to download a geolocation app when you sign up right here. Also, find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.mThose of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

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Braves-Phillies Odds

Here are odds for tonight’s Braves-Phillies game. All odds are as of 9:00 a.m. Saturday morning.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-150) +110 O 10 (-103)
Braves -1.5 (+120) -124 U 10 (-114)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-150) +110 O 9.5 (-105)
Braves -1.5 (+128) -124 U 9.5 (-117)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-150) +105 O 9.5 (-110)
Braves -1.5 (+130) -125 U 95. (-110)

The Phillies are a home underdog for a sixth straight game. If you want the under (and you’re in the state of NJ), get it at PointsBet where it’s currently 9.5 (-110). If you like the Phils to even the series, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook at +110.

Phillies-Braves General Betting Trends

The Braves are 31-20 (+$824) on the road this season, including wins in 31 of their last 48 games. They’re the NL’s best road team, and it’s not even close. The Phillies, meanwhile, are 30-22 (-$39) at Citizens Bank Park.

The Braves have been a profitable 43-22 (+$635) as a favorite, while the Phillies continue to be a bad underdog bet at 13-27 (-$1,040). They have, however, won four of their last seven games as a dog, including two of their last four at home where they had previously been winless in that role. Overall, they’re 2-7 (-$420) as a home underdog. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Atlanta has excelled as a road favorite, going 16-5 (+$600).

The current moneyline is a bit concerning for the Phillies. They are only 5-13 (-$721) when a moneyline underdog between +100 and +130 and 2-8 (-$569) when between +110 to +120. They are also 0-3 when +101 to +135 at home, which includes their loss last night.

Conversely, the Braves are 15-9 (+$228) when favored between -117 and -147 on the moneyline, 12-3 overall when favored between -120 and -140 on the moneyline, and 4-1 (+$202) on the road when favored in the same range.

The Phillies are only 7-12 (-$615) in Zach Eflin’s starts this season, while the Braves are 13-6 (+399) when Max Fried gets the ball.

Eflin has been a mess in July, going 0-3 with an 11.08 ERA in three starts. He complained of feeling “heavy” after a poor start in Pittsburgh last weekend. Opponents are hitting .362 with a 1.076 OPS against him this month. He is, however, 5-3 in eight home starts with a 3.88 ERA while holding opponents to a respectable .720 OPS. Also working in his favor, Eflin has a 3.26 ERA in five starts this season when he has at least six days of rest in between starts. Opponents are hitting only .216 with a .637 OPS against him in those starts.

As for Fried, he’s 1-1 with a 4.50 ERA in two July starts. Opponents are hitting .318 with an .884 OPS against him this month.

Phillies-Braves Prediction

Once again, the numbers don’t favor the Phillies here. Atlanta is the better team and when you look at the talent discrepancy, contextual factors, and how these teams have played in similar situations, the Braves are the obvious choice. That said, the Phillies have an uncanny way of bouncing back when looking left for dead. I think Eflin turns in a decent performance and they even things up tonight, though I definitely can’t blame you for taking the info above and going the other way.