The Phillies and Mets followed a familiar script in their series opener last night at Citi Field. It went something like this:
- Mets get good starting pitching. Build lead in early-to-middle innings.
- Phillies get back into the game thanks to Mickey Callaway’s ineptitude and the Mets’ bullpen.
- Mets ultimately go on to lose the game in excruciating fashion, further sending their fans into a totally justifiable rage that looks something like this:
The 2019 Mets in one video. pic.twitter.com/ABh4oPBiOb
— Bob Wankel (@BobWankelCB) July 6, 2019
I feel for Mets fans–sort of. Imagine the joy of watching a pitcher like Jacob deGrom take the ball every fifth day only to realize your team, somehow, probably still won’t win. After all, the Mets are only 5-13 in deGrom’s 18 starts this season and 19-30 in his starts dating back to the beginning of the 2018 season. AND HE WON THE NATIONAL LEAGUE CY YOUNG LAST SEASON.
Indeed, the Mets are the life raft the Phillies need right now. Consider that since June 12 the Phillies are 2-11 against all opponents that aren’t the Mets, but are 5-0 against the Mets. Truly, the Mets have kept the Phillies afloat as they tread water heading into the All-Star break.
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Here are the Phillies-Mets odds for tonight’s game.
|Phillies||+1.5 (-157)||+135||O 9 (-107)|
|Mets||-1.5 (+133)||-152||U 9 (-109)|
|Phillies||+1.5 (-157)||-+135||O 9 (-109)|
|Mets||-1.5 (+133)||-152||U 9 (-112)|
|Phillies||+1.5 (-150)||+135||O 9 (-110)|
|Mets||-1.5 (+130)||-160||U 9 (-110)|
Phillies-Mets Pitching Trends
The Mets are a solid 25-16 (+$219) in Noah Syndergaard’s starts dating back to the start of the 2018 season, but have been an unprofitable 9-7 (-$21) this year. They are also only 4-4 this season when he starts as a home favorite and 6-6 (-$222) in any start when favored. While the Mets’ team performance is not nearly as dismal as it with deGrom on the mound, they also haven’t done a great job seizing seemingly advantageous spots with Syndergaard pitching in 2019.
The Mets are 3-2 (+$39) in Syndergaard’s starts against the Phillies since the start of 2018, including 1-0 this season, though he wasn’t particularly sharp in a 7-6 Mets win back on April 15. He went 5 IP, 9 H, 5 ER, 3 BB, 9K in that start.
Jake Arrieta will get the start for the Phillies. They are 10-7 overall in Arrieta’s starts this season, but only 2-3 when he starts as an underdog. The Phillies are 2-1 in Arrieta’s three starts against the Mets this season, but were 0-3 a season ago.
Phillies-Mets General Betting Trends
- The Phillies are 8-3 (+$393) against New York this season.
- The Mets have dropped back-to-back games. They are 8-5 (+$281) after two straight losses this season, while the Phillies are 13-8 after a one-game “streak.”
- The Mets are 8-4 (+$136) when favored between -140 and -160 on the moneyline, while the Phillies are 2-5 as an underdog between +120 and +140.
- The Mets are only 5-8 ($-444) after scoring two runs or less in their previous game. The Phillies, meanwhile, are only 2-4 (-$187) as an underdog after scoring six or more runs in back-to-back games.
- The Phillies are 5-8 in the second game of road series this season. The Mets are 9-4 in the second game of a home series.
- The Mets are 10-12 (-$593) this season when facing a RHP as a home favorite. That’s an awful return.
- The Phillies are 5-3 as a dog this season when facing an opposing starter with an ERA between 4.3 and 6.00. They are also 12-4 this season when facing a right-handed starter with that same ERA range. Syndergaard enters tonight with a 4.56 ERA.
- The Mets are 21-35 (-$1,329) against teams .500 or better this season, including only 10-12 at home (-$333). Still, the Phillies are only 10-19 as an underdog this season, which makes them one of the least profitable underdog bets in baseball.
Much like last night, I don’t particularly like either side in this game. The Phillies have been so inconsistent, and you’d think the Mets are due to beat them at some point, particularly at home with a guy like Syndergaard on the mound. At the same time, it’s the Mets. These teams tend to play close games, and dating back to June 1, the Mets’ bullpen has allowed a ridiculous 77 earned runs in 92 innings pitched, good for a league-worst 7.53 ERA. And who are the Mets to be laying -152 odds right now? If I had to play my money here, I’d reluctantly take the Mets on the ML, but I don’t, so this is again a “no play” for me.