Phillies Betting Preview: Get Out The Brushes and Dustpans?
You can’t get out the big brooms for a two-game sweep, but you can get out the brushes and dustpans. The Phillies will try to do just that this afternoon at Comerica Park as they go for a quick two-game sweep over a Tigers team that uh, well, flat-out stinks.
We’ll get into the trends and stats and all of that other good stuff in a minute, but before we do, I just have to say – the Phillies absolutely, positively should sweep the Tigers today. They won last night – it was their fifth win in their last seven games – which is great and all, but it was sort of disheartening to watch them mostly flounder for 15 innings against a squad winning 27% of its home games this season.
Whatever. Survive and advance, I guess.
That brings us to this afternoon’s tilt in which Vince Velasquez will get the ball against Detroit’s Jordan Zimmermann. Can the Phillies get out of the Motory City with a quick mini-sweep before returning to Citizens Bank Park this weekend for a critical set with the Braves? Let’s get into it.
But before we do, make sure that you’re taking advantage of all of the best offers from the top sportsbooks. Here’s what you need to know:
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Phillies-Tigers Odds
Here are odds for today’s Phillies-Tigers game. All odds are as of 9:15 a.m. Wednesday morning.
Run Line | Money | Total | |
Phillies | -1.5 (+112) | -159 | O 10.5 (-103) |
Tigers | +1.5 (-130) | +140 | U 10.5 (-114) |
Run Line | Money | Total | |
Phillies | -1.5 (-106) | -159 | O 10.5 (-105) |
Tigers | +1.5 (-110) | +140 | U 10.5 (-117) |
Run Line | Money | Total | |
Phillies | -1.5(-115) | -165 | O 10.5 (-105) |
Tigers | +1.5 (-105) | +140 | U 10.5 (-115) |
The Phillies are actually a larger favorite with Velasquez on the mound in this game than they were last night when Nola had the ball. I guess that’s a testament to Matthew Boyd, but I think it’s more of an indictment of Tigers starter Jordan Zimmermann. He’s been, I mean, he’s just been bad this season. Like really bad. He has an 0-7 record with a 7.51 ERA and a 1.69 WHIP.
Anyway, if you want to grab the Tigers on the run line, get it at PointsBet where it’s currently (-105). If you like the Tigers to win, for some reason, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook at +140. You can also get the same price on a Phillies moneyline bet at those two books.
Phillies-Tigers Pitching Matchup
Vince Velasquez
It was a strange start for Velasquez his last time out. He allowed four homers and failed to finish five full innings against the Dodgers last Tuesday, but showed plus-stuff early on and finished the night with seven strikeouts. He just couldn’t keep the ball in the yard. Four of the five hits he surrendered came via the home run, knocking him out of the game in the fifth inning. That’s been a trend for Velasquez, who has only completed six innings once in his 11 starts this season.
Velasquez has a 5.21 ERA over his last four starts, but his other numbers are actually pretty solid and suggest he’s pitching better than his bloated ERA. Over his last 19 IP, Velasquez has a 1.11 WHIP, 9.9 K/9, and 1.4 BB/9. If he can just keep the ball in the yard at the cavernous Comerica Park this afternoon, then he has a chance to be successful.
The Phillies are 5-6 overall in Velasquez’s 11 starts this season. They are 3-3 when he starts as a favorite and 2-1 when he starts as a road favorite.
Note: Velasquez faced the Tigers once this season back on April 30, and it didn’t go well. He failed to make it through the fourth, while allowing three runs on six hits and three walks. He did have seven strikeouts in that game, though.
Jordan Zimmermann
I can’t begin to explain how bad Zimmermann has been this month. In three starts, he’s pitched only 11 innings, while allowing 28 hits and surrendering 20 earned runs. Let me lay that out a different way: Zimmermann has a 16.36 ERA and 2.91 WHIP this month.
Moreover, he’s been bad at home with a 6.83 ERA in six starts at Comerica Park this season. Unsurprisingly, the Tigers are only 3-9 overall in Zimmermann’s 12 starts and they are 0-6 in his six home starts.
Note: J.T. Realmuto is only 2 for 17 lifetime against Zimmerman. Bryce Harper, his former teammate, is 1 for 2 in a limited sample, while Jean Segura is 9 for 19 with a double, triple, and homer.
Phillies-Tigers Betting Trends
The Phillies are 4-3 this season when coming into a game having scored three runs or less in their previous three games. Conversely, they are only 1-3 this season after limiting opponents to two runs or less in each of their previous two games.
The Tigers have both the worst overall record and worst home record in baseball this season. That doesn’t always mean a team is a bad bet because they’ll typically cash big in those rare wins, but the Tigers have been a brutal bet. Detroit is the least profitable moneyline team in baseball this season, costing the average $100 moneyline bettor $2,476. Their 13-35 home record has cost bettors $1,954, and their 7-30 record as a home underdog has cost bettors $1,964. Just brutal.
The Tigers are 11-30 when facing a right-handed starting pitcher at home this season and are somehow only 2-6 at home when facing an opposing starter who enters with a 4.50 to 5.25 ERA.
Finally, the Tigers have been brutal against National League teams at Comerica Park this season, going only 1-8.
As for the Phillies, they are 11-7 (+$156) as a road favorite. They are also 9-3 this season when a moneyline favorite between -150 and -170 and are 12-3 when a moneyline favorite between -150 and -180. Keep an eye on this number because if it reaches -160, the Phillies have been a perfect 7-0 when favored between -160 and -180 on the moneyline.
Since 2005, the Phillies have been terrible during Interleague Play. They are only 60-94 on the road in Interleague Play and 24-33 as a road favorite, but that trend hasn’t stood up in recent seasons. The Phillies are a solid 10-4 as a road favorite against AL teams (+$626) since the start of the 2018 season. Call it The Gabe Kapler Effect.
Phillies-Tigers Prediction
Same deal as last night. Backing the Phillies has been a rollercoaster ride this season, but in this case, there’s just no way I can go against them here. They’re the better team and have more to play for against a team going nowhere – one that has been beyond inept at home this season that also has a pitcher going who can’t get anybody out this month. Give me the Phillies.