The Phillies used seven shutout innings from Drew Smyly, a key hit from Adam Haseley, and a two-run bomb from Rhys Hoskins to take the opener against the surging Giants last night in what was both teams’ final game ahead of this afternoon’s 4 p.m. trade deadline.

Will the Phillies add? Will the Giants unload franchise icon Madison Bumgarner? Will the emotional boosts/letdowns from these potential deals play into how either team comes out tonight? Possibly. Just a contextual factor to consider being locking in a wager.

Anyway, remember last weekend when Gabe Kapler caught some shit because he said Smyly looks like Cliff Lee on the mound? Well, through two starts, he’s pitching like him:

Lee first two starts with Phillies in ’09: 16 IP, 10 H, 2 ER, 3 BB, 15 K

Smyly first two starts with Phillies in ’19: 13 IP, 8 H, 1 ER, 3 BB, 13 K

Just sayin’.

Anyway, the Phillies will look to make it three in a row and secure a series win tonight when Vince Velasquez takes the ball against San Francisco’s Jeff Samardzija. The Phils also have a chance to reach seven games over .500 for the first time since June 16. Will they do it?

Let’s get into it, but before we do, make sure that you’re taking advantage of all of the best offers from the top online sportsbooks. First, the big news:

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Phillies-Giants Odds

Here are odds for today’s Phillies-Giants game:

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Philadelphia Phillies,books:FanDuel|SugarHouse”]

Pretty consistent prices across the board here early this morning. The Phillies are hovering in that -130 to -135 neighborhood, which is about where they were ahead of last night’s contest.

Anyway, if you want to grab the over in New Jersey, get it at PointsBet where it’s currently set at 10 (+100). If you like the Giants to win,  you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook with +118 price. Meanwhile, if you like the Phillies, the best price is currently -130 at FanDuel Sportsbook.

Phillies-Giants Pitching Matchup

Vince Velasquez

Velasquez was touched up two starts ago when he allowed four homers and failed to finish five full innings against the Dodgers, but he showed plus-stuff early on in that game and finished the night with seven strikeouts. He just couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, as four of the five hits he surrendered came via the home run. He rectified those issues in his start at Detroit last Wednesday in which he tossed 5.2 scoreless innings. It appeared he would complete six full innings for only the second time in 12 starts, but he fell one out short.

Despite still failing to get consistently deep into games, Velasquez has actually posted pretty solid numbers over his last five starts: 4.01 ERA, 1.094 WHIP, 30 K, 5 BB. 

Other than L.A., the competition hasn’t been too fierce, but in three July starts, Velasquez has a 3.52 ERA, while opponents are hitting only .246 against him with a .292 OBP, but they have also posted a .525 slugging percentage. In seven games at Citizens Bank Park this season, Velasquez has a 4.15 ERA, but opposing batters are hitting only .226 against him with a modest .270 on-base percentage, while also putting up a 5/1 strikeout to walk ratio.

Overall, the Phillies are 6-6 (+$16) in Velasquez’s 12 starts this season. They are 4-3 when he starts as a favorite and 1-2 when he starts as a home favorite.

Note: Brandon Belt is 0 for 5 with a strikeout against Velasquez. 

Jeff Samardzija

Samardzija (7-8, 3.95 ERA) has been solid this season, and he’s 3-1 with a 2.95 ERA this month. In 11 road starts, he’s 5-3 with a 4.19 ERA and 1.19 WHIP.

In five career games at Citizens Bank Park, he has struggled immensely. Opponents are hitting .320 with a .620 slugging-percentage and a 1.002 OPS. That probably explains his 0-3 record and 13.91 ERA. That is, by far, his worst ERA in any visiting park in which he’s made at least five appearances. Same goes for his 1.91 WHIP, 1.002 opponent OPS, .320 opponent batting average, and .620 opponent slugging-percentage.

Overall, the Giants are 11-10 (+$350) when he starts. They are 7-4 (+$545) in his road starts and 6-4 (+$451) when he starts as a road dog. That’s quite an impressive return.

Note: Bryce Harper is only 3 for 18 lifetime against Samardzija. 

Phillies-Giants Betting Trends

The Giants are only 54-53 this season, but have been a terrific bet because they often play as an underdog. At +$1,333, they are MLB’s second-most profitable team behind only the Twins. At 29-25 on the road, their +$1,419 return makes them baseball’s most profitable road team. Their 24-22 record (+$1,288) makes them the game’s most profitable road underdog, too.

Simply put, the Giants have been an outstanding bet both on the road and as an underdog.

San Francisco has also been excellent against teams allowing more than 4.2 runs per game this season, as the Phillies are, with a 43-33 record (+$1,675).

As for the Phillies, they also have some encouraging trends working in their favor ahead of this one. They have a solid 32-23 record at home this season, though that has actually lost the average $100 bettor a total of $7. Overall, however, they’ve been a very profitable favorite at 43-22 (+$740) and 30-15 (+$513) as a home favorite.

This current money line is encouraging for Phillies backers, too.

They’re 10-4 (+$336) overall and 6-2 (+$244) at home this season when a moneyline favorite between -128 and -140. When we open that range from -117 to -147, they are 19-10 (+$461). Bottom line: Philadelphia has been a good play with this moneyline range at Citizens Bank Park.

One other thing: Philadelphia is 8-4 (+$218) when favored between -115 and -140  at home on the moneyline and facing a right-handed starting pitcher. They are 25-14 (+$390) against right-handed starters as a home favorite overall.

Phillies-Giants Prediction

The Phillies had a disappointing weekend against the Braves, but they’ve actually played pretty well in the second half. San Francisco has been outstanding in July, and they’ve been straight cash both on the road and as an underdog, which gives me some pause – particularly given Samardzija has been so good this month. Still, Velasquez has been sneaky effective lately and the Giants lineup shouldn’t strike too much fear into anybody. Throw in Samardzija’s career struggles at Citizens Bank Park, and I think the Phillies claim a series victory tonight.