How you look at the Phillies this morning is all a matter of perspective. Maybe you are disappointed that a team which dusted the Atlanta Braves in a convincing three-game sweep to open the season back in March currently sits 5.5 games back in the NL East.

I mean, that opening weekend at Citizens Bank Park feels like forever ago, doesn’t it?

Anything felt possible then – 100 wins, 40 Bryce Harper homers, a division title for the first time since the 2011 season. Obviously, things haven’t played out that way. The Braves shook off their sluggish start and have since surged to the top of the division standings. But, like I said, how you view the Phillies is all a matter of perspective.

Back On July 15, the Dodgers blew the doors off the Phillies, 16-2, sinking them to 9.5 games back of Atlanta. Fast forward 10 days, the Phillies have won six of their last eight and now trail the Braves by only 5.5 games. With a big weekend in front of them, the Phillies have a chance to make things weird again in the NL East. It starts tonight when Jake Arrieta (8-7, 4.40 ERA), elbow bone spurs and all, gets the ball against Atlanta’s Mike Soroka (10-2, 2.46 ERA). So will they make things weird? Let’s get into it.

But before we do, make sure that you’re taking advantage of all of the best offers from the top sportsbooks. Here’s what you need to know:


Those of you in PA, you now can bet on iOS with SugarHouse Sportsbook in PA. You are required to download a geolocation app when you sign up right here. Also, find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.mThose of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

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Braves-Phillies Odds

Here are odds for tonight’s Braves-Phillies game. All odds are as of 8:00 a.m. Friday morning.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-134) +120 O 10 (-104)
Braves -1.5 (+115) -136 U 10 (-113)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-134) +120 O 10 (-106)
Braves -1.5 (+115) -136 U 10 (-115)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-140) +111 O 10 (+100)
Braves -1.5 (+121) -131 U 10 (-121)

The Phillies are a home underdog for a fifth straight game, which is pretty crazy considering they’re a solid 54-48 overall. Say, I wonder if a team has ever gone on to win the World Series after starting the season with that record.

Well then.

Anyway, if you want the Braves on the moneyline (and you’re in the state of NJ), get them at PointsBet where they’re currently (-131). If you like the Phils to stay hot, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook at +120.

Phillies-Braves Pitching Matchup

Jake Arrieta 

Arrieta will eventually need surgery to remove bone spurs from his pitching elbow, but he’s held up just fine in his two starts since the All-Star break, allowing only two earned runs in 10.2 IP.  He was solid in Pittsburgh last Friday night when he tossed five-plus innings, giving up one earned run on six hits with four strikeouts.

Arrieta has had mixed results at home this season. He has a 4.25 ERA and a 1.42 WHIP while opponents are hitting .257 with a .712 OPS against him.

Overall, the Phillies are 12-8 (+$200) in Arrieta’s 20 starts. They are 6-3 (+$141) when he starts at home and 3-4 when he starts as an underdog (-$68). This will be Arrieta’s first home start as a home underdog this season.

Note: Arrieta allowed only one earned run over six innings back on March 31 in his only start against the Braves this season. He did walk six in that game, though.

Mike Soroka

If you’re a Phillies fan, I have some good news and some bad news for you. Let’s start with the bad news. Soroka is 6-0 with a 1.13 ERA and a 0.86 WHIP in nine road starts. Opponents are hitting only .179 against him with a .468 OPS. Not great!

The good news? July has been his worst month by just about every statistical measure. He has a 4.08 ERA while opponents are hitting .329 against him with a  .769 OPS in three starts this month. Those numbers aren’t too bad, but they do represent a step back from his unbelievable start to the season.

Overall, Atlanta is 13-4 (+$516) in Soroka’s 17 starts. They are 12-4 (+$389) when favored in his starts, 7-2 (+$347) in his road starts and 6-2 (+220) when he starts as a road favorite.

Note: Soroka allowed four earned runs on nine hits and two walks in only 4.2 IP during his only start against the Phillies this season. All four of those runs were scored in the first, then the Phillies’ bats went quiet. 

Phillies-Braves General Betting Trends

The Braves are 30-20 ($752) on the road this season, including wins in 30 of their last 47 games. They’re the NL’s best road team, and it’s not even close. The Phillies, meanwhile, are 30-21 (+$61) at Citizens Bank Park.

The Braves have been a profitable 42-22 (+$563) as a favorite, while the Phillies continue to be a bad underdog bet at 13-26 (-$940). They have, however, won four of their last six games as a dog, including two of their last three at home where they had previously been winless in that role. Overall, they’re 2-6 (-$320) as a home underdog. Perhaps unsurprisingly, Atlanta has excelled as a road favorite, going 15-5 (+528).

I didn’t want this to get lost in the pitching matchup notes, so I’m dropping it here. Jake Arrieta has been excellent with extra rest this season. He has a 1.96 ERA while holding opposing hitters to a .575 OPS in four starts when he has 6+ days of rest. Opponents are hitting only .187 against him in those starts. He’ll have had six days of rest heading into tonight. 

This moneyline is a bit concerning for the Phillies. They are only 5-12 (-$621) when a moneyline underdog between +100 and +130 and 2-7 (-$469) when between +110 to +130. They are also 0-2 when +101 to +135 at home.

Conversely, the Braves are 14-9 (+$154) when favored between -117 and -147 on the moneyline, 11-3 overall when favored between -120 and -140 on the moneyline, and 3-1 (+$125) on the road when favored in the same range.

Phillies-Braves Prediction

I’d be lying if I told you I had a strong feeling about this one. I like Arrieta’s rest splits. That helps. And I like that the Phillies are on a bit of a roll as the Braves have struggled heading into this one. Still, the Braves’ strong performance both on the road and as a favorite is a concern. The data says grab the Braves as a modest moneyline favorite, but I’m going to go with my gut by backing the Phillies to win the opener. I think things are about to get weird in South Philly. Make of that what you will.