Phillies Betting Preview: Nola Looking to Salvage Series Split With Dodgers

Phillies Dodgers betting preview
PHOTO CREDIT: ERIC HARTLINE-USA TODAY SPORTS

I’m a big, big fan of games that end just before two in the morning. Love them. Love them even more when they are followed by a 12:30 p.m. start time the next day. Makes for a good product – one that you can watch exclusive on YouTube. Seriously. YouTube. While that’s not ideal, I do have some good news for our PA readers. You now can bet on iOS with SugarHouse SportsbookYou are required to download a geolocation app when you sign up right here.

See, it’s not all bad.

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Unfortunately for Phillies fans, that’s about all the good news I’ve got for you. Things were tied at 2-2 in the seventh inning last night (today?) when David Freese and Juan Nicasio collaborated to ensure no bonus baseball would be played deep into the early morning hours.

From there, the Phillies quietly rolled over and lost for the fourth time in six games to open the second half. Apparently, it’s hard to win with no relief pitching and two hits. Who knew?

Those of you in Pennsylvania, find out more about how to get in on the action on our PA sports betting page.

Those of you in New Jersey, hit our NJ online sports betting page.

Phillies-Dodgers Odds

Here are the Phillies-Dodgers odds for this afternoon’s game. All odds and analysis provided are as of 12:15 a.m. Thursday morning.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-167) -106 O 9 (-118)
Dodgers -1.5 (+145) -108 U 9 (-102)

DraftKings Sportsbook

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-167) -103 O 9 (-120)
Dodgers -1.5 (+145) -112 U 9 (-103)

PointsBet

Run Line Money Total
Phillies +1.5 (-125) -105 O 9.5 (-105)
Dodgers -1.5 (+105) -115 U 9.5 (-115)

Nice to see the Phillies actually play the Dodgers at home with a quasi-respectable line after being a crazy +175 home dog on Tuesday night and a hefty +140 home dog last night. Still, Aaron Nola has allowed two earned runs in 20.2 IP this month, so I’m a little bit surprised the Phils aren’t favored here.

If you want to grab the under, get it at PointsBet where it’s currently 9.5 (-115) . If you like the Dodgers, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook. You can basically get the same price on a Phillies moneyline bet at all three books.

Phillies-Dodgers Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola

Nola (8-2, 3.63 ERA) comes into the series finale against L.A. red-hot, allowing only two earned runs this month. Check out his numbers in three July starts:

20.2 IP, 1.06 WHIP, 0.87 ERA, .164 OPP BA, .512 OPS allowed, 10.02 K/9

That’s nasty.

In his last start, Nola allowed only one earned run over six innings against the Nationals, but the Phillies’ bullpen couldn’t hold a late 3-1 lead. Nola did struggle with his control some as he walked four batters, but he also struck out nine.

Nola has been a much better at home this season. In 72.1 IP at Citizens Bank Park, he has a 2.74 ERA while holding opponents to a .232 batting average and .657 OPS.

In three career starts against the Dodgers, Nola is 2-0 with a 2.84 ERA and 0.895 WHIP. The Phillies are 3-0 (+$383) in those starts.

The Phillies are 12-8 (+$84) in Nola’s 20 starts this season, but are only 6-6 (-$284) in his 12 starts at Citizens Bank Park.

Note: Of the current Dodgers who have faced Aaron Nola, none have homered and they’ve combined for a .190 batting average and .461 OPS. Nola has owned this lineup.

Ross Stripling

Stripling (4-3, 3.65 ERA) is coming off a five inning start at Fenway Park in which he limited the Red Sox to only one earned run while striking out seven and walking none. Since June 1, Stripling has a 4.18 ERA in 23.2 IP and has allowed opponents to post a .775 OPS. Moreover, he has a 3.90 ERA in 32.1 IP away from Dodgers Stadium.

The Dodgers are 7-3 (+$310) in Stripling’s 10 starts this season and 4-1 (+$336) when he starts on the road. No doubt, he’s been a winning play on the road this season, but he hasn’t been a great play when pitching as a road favorite throughout his career, going 21-18 (-$453).

Note: Maikel Franco, Nick Williams, and Rhys Hoskins have all homered in their careers off of Stripling.

Phillies-Dodgers Betting Trends

The Dodgers, despite having the superior club in recent seasons, are only 8-8 overall at Citizens Bank Park dating back to 2015.

The Phillies are 29-21 at home this season ($-48), while the Dodgers are 27-22 (-$369) on the road. As good as Los Angeles is, they haven’t been a profitable play away from Dodgers stadium.

The Phillies won at Citizens Bank Park as an underdog for the first time this season on Tuesday night, but then couldn’t generate any momentum. They are now 1-4 as a home dog this season. In general, they have struggled as an underdog, going 11-23 (-$831). Overall, the Phillies continue to be one of the least profitable underdog bets in all of baseball this season.

In terms of this specific spread, the Phillies are only 2-4 when they are between +100 and -120 on the moneyline.

The Dodgers, meanwhile, have been profitable as a favorite at 59-30 (+$532). More specifically, however, they are 22-18 (-$323) as a road favorite this season. In terms of this specific line, LA is only 3-6 when favored between -100 and -120 (-$323). All nine of those games were played on the road.

Interestingly, despite the Dodgers’ significant pop from the left side, they are only 16-15 on the road in games started by a right-handed pitcher this season, which is pretty bizarre considering their 27-6 record at home against RHP.

Phillies-Dodgers Prediction

Given the instability and glaring weaknesses of the Phillies pitching staff, they have to take advantage of Aaron Nola’s starts if they’re going to give themselves a chance in the wild card hunt. Nola pitched well in the sweltering heat in a day game at Citizens Bank Park back on June 27 against the Mets and has had success in hot and humid conditions throughout his career. This isn’t so much of a play on the Phillies as it is on Nola, who has absolutely dominated the Dodgers in three career starts. I’ll take the Phillies on the moneyline at -106 to salvage a series split before heading to Pittsburgh this weekend.

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