Phillies Must Take Advantage of Lowly Tigers

The Phillies begin a quick two-game set tonight with the lowly Tigers who enter with a dismal 30-65 record. Only the Orioles have a worse winning-percentage (.313) this season. The Phils will get an up-close look at Tigers left-handed starting pitcher Matthew Boyd, who could be making his final appearance with the team ahead of the July 31 trade deadline.

For the Phillies, Aaron Nola will get the ball and is looking to nail down the Phils’ fifth win in their last seven games. At 7 1/2 games behind the division-leading Braves, the Phillies desperately need to catch fire this week ahead of their crucial three-game series with Atlanta at Citizens Bank Park, which could mark their last shot to jump back into the division mix. Certainly, they have the right opponent in the Tigers and the right venue in Comerica Park given Detroit’s absolutely woeful 13-34 home record. Will the Phillies take advantage? Let’s get into it.

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Phillies-Tigers Odds

Here are odds for tonight’s Phillies-Tigers game. All odds are as of 8:00 a.m. Tuesday morning.

SugarHouse Sportsbook

DraftKings Sportsbook

PointsBet

It’s been awhile since the Phillies have been favored. In fact, they haven’t been favored in a game since back on July 14 when they walked off the Nationals in a 4-3 win, having played seven straight games as an underdog. They went a respectable 4-3 in those games.

If you want to grab the under, get it at PointsBet where it’s currently 8 (+100). If you like the Tigers, you can grab them at either SugarHouse Sportsbook or DraftKings Sportsbook at +128. You can basically get the same price on a Phillies moneyline bet at all three books, but PointsBet has the best price as of 8 a.m. Tuesday morning.

Phillies-Tigers Pitching Matchup

Aaron Nola

Nola (8-2, 3.77 ERA) comes into this one off of his worst start this month in which he allowed four earned runs over five innings to the Dodgers last Thursday. He entered that game having allowed only two earned runs in July, but surrendered three homers to a potent L.A. lineup. Still, he’s been excellent overall in four starts this month with a 2.10 ERA in 25.2 IP while holding opponents to a .183 batting average. One minor concern: Nola has issued an uncharacteristic seven walks in his last 11 IP, something he’ll look to improve upon tonight.

The Phillies are 13-8 (+$183) in Nola’s 21 starts this season, including 6-2 in his eight starts away from Citizens Bank Park. This despite a 5.08 ERA on the road.

Note: Current Tigers are hitting .261 with a .654 OPS lifetime vs. Nola. No Detroit hitter has homered against him.

Matthew Boyd

Boyd is one of the biggest names on the trade market and many industry experts expect the Tigers to deal him before the end of the month. One of the teams that could be interested is the Phillies. Boyd is 6-8 with a 4.13 ERA and 1.13 WHIP. He has a career-best 12 K/9 this season, which has been a big reason for his success. In nine home starts, Boyd is 3-3 with a 3.36 ERA and pristine 1.01 WHIP, but he has struggled this month. In three July starts, Boyd has a 6.38 ERA. He’s also surrendered at least four runs in each of his last six appearances, though he continues to get strikeouts (55 K in 35.1 IP).

Note: Only four current Phillies have faced Boyd. Sean Rodriguez, Jay Bruce, Andrew McCutchen, and Jean Segura. Three of those players are on the IL or out for the season, while Segura is banged up and isn’t a slam dunk to play after coming out of Sunday’s game in Pittsburgh. 

Phillies-Tigers Betting Trends

As noted above, the Tigers are tied with Baltimore for baseball’s worst record, but that doesn’t always correlate to a lack of overall moneyline success. In this case, however, it does. Detroit is the least profitable moneyline team in baseball this season, costing the average $100 moneyline bettor $1,854. Moreover, not only is their 13-34 home record the worst in baseball, they are also only 7-29 ($-1,864) as a home underdog. Just brutal.

As you would expect, the Tigers don’t fare well against quality starting pitching. They are just 15-36 when facing a starter with a sub 3.80 ERA this season and 1-5 when the opposing starter’s ERA is between 3.40 and 3.80.

Finally, the Tigers have been brutal against National League teams at Comerica Park this season, going only 1-7.

As for the Phillies, they are 10-7 as a road favorite. While they’re only 4-9 this season when facing a left-handed starting pitcher, they are 2-1 when doing so as a favorite.

Since 2005, the Phillies have been terrible during Interleague Play. They are only 59-94 on the road in Interleague Play (-$2,362) and 23-33 as a road favorite, but that trend hasn’t stood up in recent seasons. The Phillies are a solid 9-4 as a road underdog against AL teams (+554) since the start of the 2018 season. Call it The Gabe Kapler Effect.

Phillies-Tigers Prediction

Backing the Phillies has been a rollercoaster ride this season, but in this case, there’s just no way I can go against them here. They’re the better team with the better pitcher and have more to play for against a team going nowhere – one that has been beyond inept at home this season. Give me the Phillies.