Phillies Betting Preview: Searching for Offense in the Desert

There’s no other way to spin it. It was just a miserable weekend for the Phillies against the White Sox. I wrote about their brutal offensive output over the weekend in my game story, but the ugly details are worth repeating here. The Phillies were 5 for 26 with runners in scoring position and managed just 11 runs in 32 innings while batting only .212 in losing two out of three games to a team that came into Citizens Bank Park on Friday night with a 19-32 road record. A team that also had a 5.00 staff ERA. I can’t say that I blame you if you don’t have wild card fever at the moment.

And yet…the Phillies are still somehow tied for the National League’s second wild card spot. What a race it has been in recent days – check out the records of the league’s top wild card contenders over their last 10 games:

St. Louis: 5-5 (+0.5)

Washington: 3-7 (0 GB)

Philadelphia: 5-5 (0 GB)

Milwaukee: 4-6 (2 GB)

Arizona: 5-5 (2.5 GB)

San Francisco: 4-6 (2.5 GB)

New York Mets: 9-1 (3 GB)

The Phillies certainly haven’t been playing good baseball lately, but here’s the thing: none of these teams have been good, and each team is terribly flawed. Only the Mets (the bleeping Mets!), who suddenly find themselves back in the race after looking totally dead just two weeks ago, have been hot.

Will the Phillies finally heat up and find some offense in the Arizona desert? Let’s find out, but first:

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Phillies-Diamondbacks Odds

Here are the current odds for tonight’s game between the Phillies and Diamondbacks:

Phillies-Diamondbacks Pitching Matchup

Vince Velasquez

Velasquez (3-6, 4.40 ERA) was touched up three starts ago when he allowed four homers and failed to finish five full innings against the Dodgers, but he showed plus-stuff early on in that game and finished the night with seven strikeouts. He just couldn’t keep the ball in the yard, as four of the five hits he surrendered came via the home run. He rectified those issues two starts ago with 5.2 scoreless innings at Detroit, but the homer killed him once again last Wednesday against the Giants. Velasquez began his night with five scoreless innings, but he failed to record an out in the sixth when Buster Posey followed a leadoff walk with a two-run shot. Velasquez was promptly pulled from the game. He has only completed six full innings once in 13 starts.

Still, despite still failing to get consistently deep into games, Velasquez has been solid when he has been out there over his last six starts. The numbers: 29.2 IP, 3.94 ERA, .230 BAA, .287 OBP, 1.15 WHIP, 10.9 K/9, 2.4 BB/9

I’m not telling you that he’s been lights-out by any stretch, but if he can get the 2.4 HR/9 in check, he’s going to give his team a chance on most nights.

Velasquez is 1-1 with a 3.60 ERA and 1.40 WHIP in three career games (two starts) at Chase Field. He’s 3-4 with a 4.60 ERA and 1.49 WHIP in 15 games (eight starts) away from Citizens Bank Park this season.

Overall, the Phillies are 6-7 (-$48) in Velasquez’s 13 starts. They are 4-4 in his eight road starts. Keep an eye on the line. This game opened with both teams at the same price, which is interesting because the Phillies are 3-1 in his starts as a road favorite, but only 1-3 in his starts as a road underdog. More on the importance of the underdog/favorite splits in a bit.

Note: Alex Avila is 3 for 3 with a homer against Velasquez. David Peralta is 4 for 7 with a double, triple, and 4 RBI.

Merrill Kelly

If you’re a Phillies fan, don’t get too excited about Kelly’s 4.52 ERA. They saw three starters who had an ERA of at least 5.00 and couldn’t do much with any of them over the weekend. They also didn’t do much of anything will Kelly when they saw earlier this season. Kelly, however, has given up 14 earned runs in 8.1 IP over his last two starts against some light-hitting teams in Baltimore and Miami. Prior to those two starts, he had a five game stretch in which he pitched at least five innings, allowing three earned runs or less.

The rookie right-hander has been solid at home this season. Kelly has a 3.77 ERA in 59.2 IP with a 1.11 WHIP. He also has an outstanding 59:6 strikeout to walk ratio, so the Phillies may want to ditch their patient approach because if his other 10 home starts are any indication, he won’t be offering many free passes.

Overall, the Diamondbacks are only 8-14 (-$565) in Kelly’s 22 starts. In fact, he’s been their least profitable starting pitcher this season. Arizona is 2-4 (-$258) when he starts as a favorite and 6-10 (-$307) when he starts as an underdog. Meanwhile, they are 4-6 (-$255) when he starts at home, 2-3 (-$97) when he starts as a home dog, and 2-3 (-$158) when he starts as a home favorite. Pretty ugly stuff.

Note: Kelly dominated the Phillies at Citizens Bank Park back on June 12. He went 7.2 IP, allowing three hits and no runs. He didn’t walk a batter and struck out five. 

Phillies-Diamondbacks Betting Trends

The Diamondbacks are 56-56 (+$415) overall, which makes them one of the top ten most profitable teams this season. Meanwhile, the Phillies are 58-53 (-$375) and are in the bottom half of baseball in terms of overall profitability.

Arizona is only 25-27 (-$300) at Chase Field, while the Phillies are 24-27 (-$250) on the road. I can’t stress enough that the line movement in this one could be telling. The Diamondbacks have struggled as a home favorite at only 13-16 (-$662), which makes them the fourth-least profitable home team in all of baseball. At 12-11 (+$361) as a home dog, however, they are the sixth-most profitable team in this role.

The road underdog/favorite split also matters in terms of the Phillies’ performance. They’re only 12-20 (-$491) as a road underdog, which makes them the ninth-least profitable team, but they are 12-7 (+$220) as a road favorite.

In terms of this specific line, the Phillies and Diamondbacks were both -107 to -108 at the time this piece was written. The Phillies are 11-6 overall (+$392) and 4-2 (+$116) on the road when favored between -101 and -115 on the moneyline, while the Diamondbacks are 11-11 (-$44) overall and 5-4 (+78) at home when closing in the same range.

One final thing, the Phillies have been brutal on the road against NL West opponents in recent years. Check this out:

• They are only 3-7 (-$399) on the road against them this season.
• They are a miserable 7-20 (-$1,167) against them on the road under Gabe Kapler.
• They are 11-33 (-$1,856) dating back to the start of the 2017 season. No team has been less profitable against NL West opponents during that span.
• They are 8-30 (-$1,772) dating back to the start of 2017 as a road underdog.
• They are 27-50 (-$1,062) since the start of the 2015 season, making them the third-least profitable team during that span.

Yikes.

On the flip side, the damage hasn’t been quite as bad at Chase Field. The Phillies are 6-7 there since the start of the 2015 season. They lost two of three there in 2018.

Phillies-Diamondbacks Prediction

Listen, I’d like to tell you that I feel strongly about this game, but I don’t. After the weekend the Phillies had, I’m not comfortable backing them under any circumstances, particularly after a long flight with no day off built in for travel. Maybe they break out tonight given Kelly’s recent struggles, but he dominated this lineup once already earlier this season, and it’s not unreasonable to think that he will have similar success tonight with the way the Phillies are swinging the bats right now. This is definitely a no play for me, but if I had to take a side, I’d lean with Arizona.