Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Preview: Odds, Predictions, and Picks

Penn State vs. Purdue Betting Preview: odds, picks, predictions
PHOTO CREDIT: MATTHEW O' HAREN-USA TODAY SPORTS

When Purdue (1-3) visits No. 12 Penn State (4-0) at Beaver Stadium on Saturday afternoon, it will do so without some of its top offensive talent. That could spell doom against the Nittany Lions, a team that has raced out to a perfect start behind an offense that is dropping 50 points per game and a defense yielding only 7.5 points per contest.

This is one of the rare games that features team from two legal online sports betting markets. This season, Penn State bettors at PA online sportsbooks cleaned up in September as James Franklin’s squad went 3-1 ATS, and now Purdue backers are hoping for some similar success with Indiana online sports betting now live.

I guess we could call this game The Legal Sports Betting Bowl…

Come on, I’ve heard worse.

Anyway, the Boilermakers will be without starting quarterback Elijah Sindelar, who could miss the remainder of the season with a collarbone injury, and top receiver Rondale Moore (29 catches, 387 yards, two touchdowns). They figure to be up against it today on the road against a Penn State team that formally announced itself as Big Ten title contender after a 59-0 thrashing of Maryland on the road last week. I think this serves as an accurate visual representation of that game:

Penn State will once again be a massive favorite at home, so let’s check out the best odds and betting promos before getting to some predictions and picks with our Penn State vs. Purdue betting preview.

Where to Bet on Penn State vs. Purdue

Pennsylvania

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If you’re in the great state of Pennsylvania, be sure to check out our PA online sportsbooks page and score on all of the top welcome offers, big odds boosts, and best betting promos.

We strongly recommend FOX Bet PA, which continues to offer a free $20 sign-up bonus and up to a $100 deposit match for new users that you can grab right here .

FanDuel Sportsbook PA also remains a strong option with its $500 risk-free bet  offer to new users.

 

Indiana

Indiana online sports betting is live and ready to go ahead of this weekend’s college football and NFL Week 5 slate. DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana is your only real option here due to the fact that it’s the only online book available on iOS. New users who sign up here can get their first bet matched up to $200. DraftKings is also holding a Free College Football Pick’em Contest in which users can compete for a share of $70,000 in cash prizes. Not bad.

 

How to Watch Penn State vs. Purdue

Date: Saturday, October 5

Time: 12:00 p.m. EST

Location: Beaver Stadium (University Park, PA)

Network: ESPN

Announcers: Bob Wischusen, Dan Orlovsky, Allison Williams

 

Penn State vs. Purdue Weather

It’s expected to be a beautiful day at Beaver Stadium for Penn State’s homecoming festivities with sunny skies and temperatures in the low to mid 50s at kickoff. Winds will be light out of the southeast.

 

Penn State vs. Purdue Odds

Here are the current Penn State vs. Purdue betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Purdue     +28 (-110)    +1500   O 56 (-110)
Penn State      -28 (-110)   -5000   U 56 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Purdue     +28 (-110)    +1600   O 56 (-110)
Penn State     -28 (-110)   -5000   U 56 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Purdue     +28 (-110)    OFF   O 55.5 (-110)
Penn State     -28 (-110)    OFF   U 55.5 (-110)

 

Win Probability

If you read our weekly betting previews, you know the deal by now. Projection models aren’t always accurate predictors of an event’s outcome, but we think it’s worth a look at comparing the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source to find out if there’s any betting value on the board. If there’s a pronounced disparity between the two sources, there could be an opportunity to exploit a certain betting angle.

ESPN’s FPI index gives Penn State a 96.8% win probability in this game.

What’s that mean?

In relation to Penn State’s FPI index win probability, the moneyline odds are juiced on the home team as a more comparable price would be just north of the -3000 range.

As for Purdue, a +1500 moneyline payout on the Boilermakers carries a 6.3% implied win probability, meaning it’s not a strong enough payout to line up with Purdue’s FPI projection.

 

Betting Trends

Why Purdue is a Good Bet

The Boilermakers have covered five of their last seven games following a loss, but more than anything, this could be a potential look ahead spot for Penn State.

 

Why Penn State is a Good Bet

Penn State has owned this series in recent meetings, winning five straight and 8 of the past 10. The Nittany Lions are also 10-3-1 ATS against Purdue over the teams’ last 14 meetings.

Penn State has dominated at home in October recently with a nice 8-2-1 ATS record over its last 11 games played in the month.

As for any worry about a potential letdown spot after destroying Maryland, consider these trends:

  • Penn State teams under James Franklin are 8-4 ATS when favored by 25 or more points and 5-2 ATS when favored by 28 or more points.
  • When Penn State teams under James Franklin score at least 40 points, they are 13-2-1 ATS in the following game. They are 4-1 ATS in such games at home. When they score at least 50 points, they are 7-1-1 ATS.
  • Franklin’s Penn State teams are also 4-0 ATS as a 25 or more point favorite when coming off a game in which they scored at least 40 points.

 

Penn State vs. Purdue Prediction

Not every game is going to a “Five Star, Titanium Solid Lock,” so I’ll be honest and say that I don’t love this game. It’s homecoming, Purdue is dinged up, and the Nittany Lions have shown the ability to both dispose of inferior opponents and cover big numbers this season. That being said, Penn State has been explosive but has also struggled to sustain drives by converting on third downs. That’s going to catch up with them eventually. Moreover, while I’m not concerned about a hangover effect because of the aforementioned trends, I am a little bit concerned about a potential look-ahead spot as they have ranked conference opponents in Iowa and Michigan looming. Penn State wins big, but I don’t think they grab the cover.

Prediction: Purdue (+28) over Penn State

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