Colts vs. Jaguars Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

colts vs. jaguars betting prediction, odds, picks
PHOTO CREDIT: CHARLES LECLAIRE-USA TODAY SPORTS

It was only two weeks ago that the Colts were sitting atop the AFC South standings with a 5-2 record, but things have changed–and they have changed quickly. After back-to-back setbacks, including an embarrassing home loss as a double-digit favorite to the Dolphins last Sunday, head coach Frank Reich needs to get his team back on track this afternoon with a much needed division win over the Jaguars. The expected return of starting quarterback Jacoby Brissett, who hasn’t played since being knocked out early in the Colts’ 26-24 Week 9 loss at Pittsburgh, should help.

Standing in Reich’s way will be old friend Nick Foles, who quarterbacked the Eagles to a Super Bowl victory two seasons ago when Reich was the team’s offensive coordinator. Fittingly, Foles makes his return Sunday following a 10 week absence with a collarbone injury as an underdog at Indiana online sports betting sites. Which team will emerge victorious in this crucial division clash? We’ll try to answer that question with our Colts vs. Jaguars betting predictions and preview.

The Jaguars have an opportunity to get back to .500 on Sunday, and if recent history is any indication, they are a pretty good bet to do it. Jacksonville is 3-1 against Indianapolis since the start of the 2017 season, and the Jags are an impressive 7-0-1 ATS over the Colts since the start of the 2015 season. In order to keep up such impressive success, however, the Jags will have to overcome a troublesome trend: NFL teams are 0-6 after playing in London this season. Will they buck that trend and score a win? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Colts vs. Jaguars

Indiana

If you’re in the state of Indiana and heading to the game, hitting the bar or just hanging out at home, you can get in on today’s action with DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, where you’ll get a $200 bet match and up to a $500 deposit bonus when you register here .

FanDuel Sportsbook is now also live in Indiana and offering a $500 risk-free first bet.

Pennsylvania

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler. Only 1x Wager Applies, Playable in PA Only

DraftKings Sportsbook PA, which just went live this week in Pennsylvania, offers new users the same generous $200 first-bet match available right here .

New Jersey

Colts vs. Jaguars Odds

Here are the current Colts-Jaguars betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of Saturday night:

DraftKings Sportsbook 

      Spread     Money        Total
Jaguars     +2.5 (-110)   +120   O 43.5 (-110)
Colts     -2.5 (-110)   -137   U 43.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Jaguars     +2.5 (-115)   +118   O 43.5 (+100)
Colts     -2.5 (-105)   -136   U 43.5 (-120)

How to Watch Colts vs. Jaguars

  • Date: Sunday, November 17
  • Time: 1:00 p.m. EST
  • Location: Lucas Oil Stadium (Indianapolis, IN)
  • Network: CBS
  • Announcers:Andrew Catalon (play-by-play), James Lofton (analyst), Michael Grady (reporter)
  • Radio: WFN 107.5FM/1070 The Fan (Indy), WJXL AM 1010 / FM 92.5 (Jacksonville)
  • Where to Bet: DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana, FanDuel Sportsbook Indiana

Colts vs. Jaguars Weather

Conditions in Indianapolis will be fine this afternoon (cloudy, temps in the mid 40s) but that’s not nice enough to open up the roof. Weather won’t play a factor with Lucas Oil Stadium all closed up on Sunday:

Colts vs. Jaguars Injury Report

Colts

Wide receivers T.Y. Hilton and Paris Campbell remain out, while cornerback Pierre Desir will likely be sidelined once again. The Colts desperately need to get Hilton back. Over its last three games, the Indianapolis offense is producing only 17 points per game and has not eclipsed 200 yards passing in any of those contests.

Jaguars

How’s this for a lengthy injury report?

Easy enough.

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

Checking ELO and similar projection models is a worthwhile exercise to find potential betting value.

ELO projects the Colts as a two-point favorite and gives them a 56% chance to win outright. With Indianapolis currently favored by 2.5 points at most sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly a half-point of spread value on the Jaguars.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -155 moneyline odds on the Colts at DraftKings is 57.8%, which means the moneyline price is more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-127 would be in line with a 56% win probability).

As for the Jaguars, the implied win probability of their +118 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 45.9%, meaning the moneyline price is in the general area of what ELO suggests.

Recommended Bets

As usual, DraftKingsNFL Parlay Insurance is an enticing option. Play a five 5+ leg parlay, and if you hit on all but one leg of your bet, DraftKings will refund you up to $25 on your miss.

DraftKings’s Offensive Defense promo gives those who lose a pregame moneyline bet up to a $25 refund if their team scores 24+ points but still goes on to lose. It’s worth noting that this promo would have bailed out those on Indy in the Colts’ 30-24 Week 1 overtime loss to the Chargers, in Week 4 when they fell by a 31-24 margin to the Raiders, and their 26-24 Week 9 loss to the Steelers.

Finally, DraftKings is offering a boosted +1350 payout on the Jaguars and Bengals to both win. If you’re into long shots, then this is the play for you.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook, they’re offering NFL Close Loss Insurance. Get up to a $50 refund on moneyline bets if your team loses by six points or less.

FOX Bet is offering two bet boosts for this game, including:

  • Nick Foles over 1.5 TD passes and the Jaguars to win (+333)
  • Marlon Mack to record over 50.5 rushing yards, over 39.5 total points, and Colts to win (+275)

Both of these are intriguing boosts. The Jags have had multiple touchdowns passes in five games and in three of their four wins, while the Colts are 12th in the NFL in touchdown passes allowed per game (1.3). As for Foles, he has thrown for multiple touchdown passes in four of his 10 regular season starts dating back to the 2016 season. Nothing exactly jumps off the page here, but if you like the Jags to score the upset, this play is probably worth a shot.

As for the second prop, Marlon Mack is averaging 83.7 rushing yards per game and has gone over 50.5 yards seven times, including in four of the Colts’ five wins. Jacksonville has a bottom-third rush defense, yielding 120.2 yards per game and 4.9 yards per attempt:

If you like the Colts to win (we do), then this +275 boost makes a lot of sense.

Colts vs. Jaguars Prop Bet We Like

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering several alternate point spreads, along with game, player, and team prop bets. Some to consider:

Marlon Mack to Score and Colts to Win (+145)

Late season division games tend to stay under, so if you like the above Marlon Mack prop at FOX Bet, then you may also like Mack to find the end zone today. He’s certainly due–Mack has been held out of the end zone in five of his last six games, which is pretty wild considering he’s averaging 76 rushing yards per game during that span.

Colts vs. Jaguars Betting Trends

Why Backing the Colts Makes Sense

Bouncing Back

Though the Colts failed to cover (or win) off a loss last week, they have covered four of their last five games following a loss.

Lights Out at Home

The Colts have won 9 of their last 11 games at home, though they are only 5-5-1 ATS in those games.

AFC South home favorites of three points or less are 17-12-3 ATS overall and 12-5-1 ATS in November or later.

Close Calls

The Colts are 4-0-1 ATS when favored by three points or less and 5-2-1 ATS in division games under Frank Reich.

Good dog?

Nick Foles, Mr. Underdog himself, has a 5-0 ATS postseason record, but he’s a less than stellar 7-12 ATS in regular season games. Just something to consider.

Why Backing the Jaguars Makes Sense

Divisional Road Dogs Rebound

Road underdogs of three points or less that are coming off a loss are 60-44-7 ATS in division games.

Home Team Hangovers

Home teams favored by three points or less that are coming off a loss as a favorite are only 38-52-9 ATS.

A Word on the Total

The under has hit in four of the last five games between these two teams and in seven of the last eight played in Indianapolis.

The under is 15-9 in AFC south games played in November or later when both teams are coming off an under in their previous game.

The under is 27-19 when the dome is closed in AFC South games.

The under is 86-56-6 in division games with a total set between 43-45 points in Week 11 or later and 21-7 when both teams went under in its previous game.

Where’s the Action Going?

As of 10 p.m. Saturday night, 50% of spread bets and 61% of the spread handle back Jacksonville. Meanwhile, 38% of totals bets are on the over with only 25% of the money on the same side.

Colts vs. Jaguars Prediction

Nobody loves Nick Foles more than me, but he’s in a tough spot this week. He’s going to have to shake off considerable rust on the road against a solid Indianapolis defense, and he’s going to have to do it after the Colts suffered an embarrassing home loss last week to the Dolphins. I think that come late Sunday afternoon, we’re talking about the return of Jacoby Brissettt, which, somehow, has been completely overlooked leading into this game. I don’t expect it to be pretty, but given the Colts’ success as a small favorite under Reich, I believe they will do enough to outlast Jacksonville and improve to 6-4.

Prediction: Colts (-2.5) over Jacksonville

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