Cowboys vs. Bills Betting Prediction: Why The Bills Will Cover

cowboys vs bills betting prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: TIM HEITMAN-USA TODAY SPORTS

Truly, I can think of no greater time honored holiday tradition in my household than that of gathering around the dinner table at Thanksgiving to pass around the pumpkin pie, share some good cheer, and, of course, root against the Dallas Cowboys. I know, I know. Don’t worry. I may have some bias, yes, but when necessary, I’ll ride with them on a wager–however unclean it may feel. Following an early appetizer in Detroit, the Cowboys welcome the upstart Bills to AT&T Stadium for the day’s main course. Dallas looks to stay alone atop the NFC East, while Buffalo tries to maintain the inside track on one of the AFC’s wild card spots. Without further ado, let’s break down the odds, best promo offers, and prop bets with our Cowboys vs. Bills betting prediction. 

Here’s why the Bills may do some damage and inadvertently help the Birds this Thanksgiving.

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How to Bet on Cowboys vs. Bills

Here are some of the best ways to bet the Cowboys and Bills at online sportsbooks:

DraftKings Sportsbook is running a slew of Thanksgiving promos, including a $100 risk-free parlay for new users.

Meanwhile, FanDuel Sportsbook is giving users the chance to score big with its Thanksgiving Double Winnings promo. Place a pregame OVER bet on any of the day’s three games (or all three), and FanDuel will double your winnings up to $50 in bonus credit on each bet that hits.

Spoiler Alert: I like the over in this game.

 

Cowboys vs. Bills Odds

Here are the current Cowboys vs. Bills betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of late Wednesday afternoon:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Bills        +6.5 (-107)      +235   O 47 (-110)
Cowboys        -6.5 (-114)      -278   U 47 (-110)

 

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Bills       +6.5 (-110)      +250   O 46.5 (-110)
Cowboys       -6.5 (-110)      -300   U 46.5 (-110)

 

Win Probability

FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projections shows substantial value on the Bills compared to the current legal sportsbook odds.

ELO projects the Cowboys as only a 3.5-point favorite and calculates a 63% win probability. With Dallas currently favored by as many as seven points at some sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 3.5 points of value on the Bills.

Note: For what it’s worth, this is among one of the largest disparities I’ve seen this year.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -300 moneyline price on the Cowboys at DraftKings is 75%, which means the moneyline price is far more expensive than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-170 would be in line with a 63% win probability).

As for the Bills, the implied win probability of their +235 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 29.9%, meaning there is some moneyline value on taking the Bills to win outright.

 

Cowboys vs. Bills Injury Report

Here is a look at both teams’ final injury report:

Cowboys Injury Report Analysis

Wide receiver Amari Cooper, who was held without a catch last week against the Patriots, is no longer on the report, so he will play. And Dallas comes in fairly healthy. Linebacker Leighton Vander Esch is out once again this week, as is defensive tackle Antwaun Woods.

Bills Injury Report Analysis

Right tackle Ty Nsekhe is out for a second straight week, so rookie Cody Ford, who has played in all 11 games but had previously split snaps with Nsekhe, will see an increased workload for the second straight week. He kept Broncos outside linebacker Von Miller, who praised Ford after the Bills’ 20-3 win last Sunday, mostly in check. Here’s a look at him from this preseason:

Recommended Bets

DraftKings Sportsbook also has two player prop boosts available:

  • Amari Cooper to score and Cowboys to win (boosted from +250 to +350)
  • Josh Allen to score a rushing touchdown (boosted from +150 to +170)

Analysis: Considering the significant boost on the Cooper play, I think it’s worth a look, but be careful. Though Cooper is the featured pass catching option in what has been a potent aerial attack, he was held without a catch in the Cowboys’ 13-9 loss at New England last Sunday and has caught just 3 of 10 targets for only 38 yards over the last two weeks. Things don’t get much easier for Cooper this week as he’s expected to see a lot of Bills shutdown corner Tre’Davious White.

That being said, Cooper has accounted for 13 touchdowns (scoring in nine different games) in only 19 regular season games with Dallas (47.4% of his games played with the Cowboys) and offensive coordinator Kellen Moore will certainly look to get him back on track this week. Thus, pairing Cooper to score with the Cowboys–a significant favorite–to simply win the game seems like a decent play.

FOX Bet is offering 13 different game and player prop bet boosts, including: 

  • Cooper to score the first touchdown (+850 from +750)
  • Bills +10.5, Josh Allen 225+ passing yards, John Brown 50+ receiving yards, Bills 3+ TD (+475 from +400)
  • Devin Singletary to score a TD, Bills +9.5 and Over 39.5 points (+375 from +333)

Analysis: Given the point spread value suggested by the ELO model, I’m interested in grabbing another 2.5 points of it and getting the Bills at +9.5, along with the 7.5 points of value on the over at 39.5 points. That feels significant. Of course, the final part of the equation is Singletary to score a touchdown. Dallas is 23rd in the NFL, allowing 0.9 rushing touchdowns per game, while Buffalo is 13th in the NFL with 1.0 rushing touchdowns per game.

Of course, you have to worry about quarterback Josh Allen, who has seven rushing touchdowns already this season, and the existence of Frank Gore (two rushing scores) getting those scoring opportunity touches. Singletary himself only has two rushing touchdowns this season and has been held out of the end zone in three straight games, but there’s reason for optimism he’ll get there on Thursday.

First, he’s seen an increased workload in recent weeks. After failing to register double-digit carries in September and October, the Bills have turned the rookie loose this month. He has had at least 15 carries in three of his last four games, including career highs in carries (21) and yards (106) last week against a stout Denver defense. And, of course, there’s always the possibility Allen finds him through the air:

Cowboys vs. Bills Prop Bet We Like

Devin Singletary to go OVER 59.5 rushing yards at DraftKings

Taking the above factors into consideration, I like Singletary to eclipse 59.5 yards against a league-average Cowboys rushing defense that is yielding 104 yards and 4.2 yards per carry per game.

Cowboys vs. Bills Betting Trends

Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Cowboys is a Good Bet

Favorites Dominate in Thanksgiving games

Favorites in the Dallas and Detroit Thanksgiving games are 23-9 ATS.

Thursdays are Kind to Late-Season Favorites

Favorites are 73-46-3 ATS in Thursday games played in November or December, while home favorites are 27-20-1 ATS.

Why Backing the Bills is a Good Bet

Dallas Isn’t Great on Thanksgiving

The Cowboys are only 7-9 ATS on Thanksgiving since 2003 and 7-6 ATS as a favorite. Moreover, they are only 2-7 ATS under Garrett and 1-5 ATS as a favorite.

Dallas Isn’t a Good Late-Season Bounce Back Team as a Home Favorite

The Cowboys are 0-10-1 ATS as a home favorite in November or later following a loss under Jason Garrett.

The Cowboys are only 8-18-1 ATS as a home favorite in November and December under Garrett and 2-8-1 ATS as a home favorite of at least seven points under him during these months.

Is This Too Many Points?

Home favorites with a .500-600 record playing a team with a .700-800 record are only 13-18-1 ATS in November and December. Such teams are only 1-4 ATS when favored by seven points or more.

 

A Word on the Total

The under is 7-9 in the Cowboys’ last 16 Thanksgiving games and 4-3 in their non-conference Thanksgiving games. More recently, the over is 6-3 in Thanksgiving games under Garrett. It’s 4-1 when the total is at least 47 points.

 

Where’s the Action Going?

As of late Wednesday afternoon, 61% of all spread bets and 56% of the spread money is on the Bills at reporting sportsbooks. Meanwhile, only 46% of bets and 57% of the money is on the over.

 

Cowboys vs. Bills Prediction

You have probably heard by now that the Cowboys have yet to beat a team with a winning record this season in four tries. There’s no doubt the players in their locker room have heard it. Meanwhile, everybody is waiting for the 8-3 Bills to take a step back, and maybe they do this week on the national stage. After all, the Cowboys are used to the attention. Their loss at New England last week was FOX’s most viewed regular season game since the 1996 season.

On the other hand, the Bills are a relative unknown. Frankly, I wouldn’t be surprised if the Cowboys win the game and weather the storm surrounding Jason Garrett, just as they did last season. Still, I’m getting what is potentially the better football team, one eager to prove it belongs in the conversation as an upper echelon team, against one that has yet to prove it can beat anyone worth a damn. And I’m getting seven points? Throw in Dallas’ brutal ATS record as a Thanksgiving Day favorite under Garrett and miserable ATS record following a loss as a home favorite late in the season, and I have to take the Bills with the points.

Prediction: Bills (+7) over Dallas, OVER 46.5 points

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