Eagles vs. Patriots Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

Eagles vs. Patriots Betting Prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: BILL STREICHER-USA TODAY SPORTS

The Eagles and Patriots will meet on Sunday afternoon at Lincoln Financial Field for the first time in the regular season since Philadelphia’s upset win over New England in Super Bowl 52. Where should your money go? Let’s get into it with our Eagles vs. Patriots betting predictions and preview.

Eagles vs. Patriots Betting Preview

The stakes may not be quite as high this time around, but it’s an important game for both teams following bye weeks as the Eagles look to keep pace atop the NFC East, while the Patriots try to bounce back after their first loss of the season two weeks ago in Baltimore. Undoubtedly, this is one of the most highly anticipated games of the week, if not season, and with the bet boosts, props, and promo offers flowing, there’s expected to be plenty of action at PA online sportsbooks.

In what is an almost completely unsurprising development, the Eagles not only failed to get healthier during the bye week, but things somehow got worse.

First came word that DeSean Jackson would miss the remainder of the season the day after the Eagles’ Week 9 win over the Bears.

That setback was followed by news earlier this week that wide receiver Alshon Jeffery and running back Jordan Howard are also banged up, and that running back Darren Sproles is out for the season. Jeffery has already been ruled out and word is Howard will be sidelined.

Enter old friends Jordan Matthews and Jay Ajayi. Everybody loves a good reunion, I guess.

These developments present further obstacles for an Eagles offense that has struggled at times to generate points this season. And their opponent today doesn’t figure to be too generous.

The Patriots’ defense has surrendered an NFL-best 10.9 points per game this season and is coming off a rare poor performance in which it surrendered 372 yards (210 rushing) to the Ravens.

Mix in the Patriots’ outrageous record following a loss and the revenge angle from Super Bowl 52, and, well, it’s a less than ideal setup for the Eagles ahead of this one. Still, no team in the NFL works the underdog angle quite like the Eagles do– can they pull off another upset today? Come with me and explore.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Patriots

Pennsylvania

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The legal online sportsbooks are absolutely bringing it for this game. Be sure to check out our complete guide of Eagles vs. Patriots betting promos.

This weekend marks the first time DraftKings Sportsbook PA will be live in Pennsylvania for an Eagles game, so they have tons of enticing offers to celebrate the occasion:

  • up to $500 deposit match (standard offer)
  • up to $200 first bet match (online exclusive)
  • Birds +300 moneyline up to $50 (Crossing Broad exclusive)
  • Birds +1000 moneyline up to $10 (all new depositors)

DraftKings is also offering bettors who back the Eagles an additional $6 for every touchdown the Birds score and strong +4133 odds on a non-QB Eagles player to throw a touchdown pass today. When have we seen this happen before?

All of these offers from DraftKings can be claimed when you sign up here .

We also recommend FOX Bet PA because of its $20 signup bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab right here .

FOX Bet also has tons of solid action available today, including +100 odds on both Carson Wentz and Tom Brady to throw a touchdown pass with a max bet of $25.

Over at FanDuel Sportsbook PA, they continue to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users and a Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less.

 

New Jersey

Some of above promos are also available in the state of New Jersey. For a comprehensive look at the New Jersey market, hit our NJ online sports betting page that is stocked with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and signup bonuses.

 

Indiana

Gambling Problem? Call 1-800-Gambler.

 

How to Watch Eagles vs. Patriots

  • Date: Sunday, November 17
  • Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
  • Location: Lincoln Financial Field (Philadelphia, PA)
  • Network: CBS
  • Announcers: Jim Nantz (play-by-play), Tony Romo (analyst), Tracy Wolfson (reporter)
  • Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), 98.5 The Sports Hub (Boston)

 

Weather

Temperatures at kickoff are expected to be right around 40 degrees under cloudy skies and remain there through the fourth quarter. It will be breezy with NNE winds blowing from 12-13 mph which could have a mild impact on the kicking games. Keep in mind that New England is on its third kicker this season with Nick Folk recently replacing Mike Nugent, who was signed following Stephen Gostkowski’s hip injury suffered in early October.

 

Eagles vs. Patriots Odds

Here are the current Eagles vs. Patriots betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 9:00 a.m. Sunday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Patriots      -4.5 (-110)   -225   O 44.5 (-110)
Eagles      +4.5 (-110)   +195   U 44.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Patriots      -4 (-110)     -200   O 44.5 (-105)
Eagles      +4 (-110)     +170   U 44.5 (-115)

 

 

Win Probability

Let’s check out FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection to see how it stacks up with current legal sportsbook odds.

The projection model has the Patriots favored by two points and with a 57% win probability. With New England currently favored by four points (or a shade more) at most sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 2-2.5 points of betting value on the Eagles.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of DraftKings -225 moneyline odds on the Patriots is 69.2%, which means that the moneyline price is a more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-133 would be in line with a 57% win probability).

As for the Eagles, the implied win probability of their +195 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 33.9%, meaning their is substantial moneyline value on the Eagles when stacked against ELO.

 

Injury Report

Eagles Injury Report

The Eagles used the bye week to rest up and…get more injured? Wide receiver DeSean Jackson and running back Darren Sproles are both out for the regular season. Linebacker Nigel Bradham and wide receiver Alshon Jeffery will each miss this game, as will running back Jordan Howard:

The Eagles’ emerging rushing attack was the primary reason for optimism heading into today, but much of that optimism had to do with the play of Howard, who rushed for a combined 178 yards and two touchdowns in his previous two games. Now, it will be up to rookie Miles Sanders and…Jay Ajayi, who woke up Friday morning as a free agent.

There is some good news for the Eagles, however, as they will get back left tackle Jason Peters.

 

Patriots Injury Report

The Patriots come into this one relatively healthy.

It’s worth noting, though, that center David Andrews and left tackle Isaiah Wynn are both on IR, leaving the Patriots offensive line vulnerable. That vulnerability has been on display at times this season with uneven performances by backups Ted Karras and Marshall Newhouse. Quarterback Tom Brady has been sacked multiple times in four of the Patriots’ last five games.

 

Eagles vs. Patriots: Five Things to Know

  • At 23-7, the Eagles have the NFL’s second-best home winning percentage since the start of the 2016 season (behind only the Patriots).
  • The Patriots are No. 1 in the NFL in the following defensive categories: total defense, third-down defense, points per game, interceptions, turnovers forced, turnover differential.
  • It will be an interesting matchup on third down today. The Eagles have the NFL’s third-best third-down offense (48.4%) while the Patriots have the league’s No. 1 third-down defense (18.9%).
  • The Patriots are only 7-6 on the road in regular season games since the start of last season.
  • The Patriots are averaging only 76 rushing yards per game while allowing 150 yards per game on the ground over their last three games.

 

Recommended Prop Bets

In addition to the deals mentioned above, FOX Bet is offering 12 different bet boosts on this game. Some highlights include:

Patriots -1.5, Brady 300+ passing yards, Edelman 70+ rec yards, Patriots 3+ TD (+550)

It’s not hard to imagine the Patriots getting revenge today, nor is it hard to imagine Brady, who threw for 500+ yards against the Eagles in Super Bowl 52, eclipsing the 300-yard mark. If you like New England, you may want to consider this boost.

At 273.9 yards per game, New England possesses the NFL’s 7th-best passing offense, while the Eagles have the league’s 16th-ranked pass defense (239 yards per game). It’s worth noting that the Eagles’ secondary has been markedly better since the return of corners Jalen Mills and Ronald Darby, but playing the Bills and Bears may have had something to do with that. Avonte Maddox figures to grow more comfortable in the slot as he works his way back from injury. Still, this is the Patriots and if the Eagles can’t consistently win up front, they’re going to make plays.

Of note, Brady has thrown for 300+ yards four times this season, but hasn’t done so since Week 6 against the Giants. As for wide receiver Julian Edelman, he has eclipsed the 70-yard mark on five different occasions this year.

Brady to throw for 300+ yards and the Patriots to win (+200)

See above.

Eagles to win by 1-6 points (+450)

It’s hard to imagine the Eagles, particularly with such a depleted offense, running away from the Patriots today. If you like the Eagles to win, why not try to more than double the current +195 moneyline payout with a bet boost?

As always, DraftKings Sportsbook is offering tons of intriguing player prop options. I know this is going to sound a bit crazy, but I sort of like…

Nelson Agholor to go Over 35.5 receiving yards (-112)

I know. I know. Hear me out.

With Jeffery out of today’s game, the Eagles will field the following receivers (stats over the last five weeks in parentheses): Mack Hollins (0 rec, 0 yards, 0 TD), J.J. Arcega-Whiteside (0 rec, 0 yards, 0 TD), Jordan Matthews (has only played in one game this season, 0 rec, 0 yards, 0 TD), and Nelson Agholor (14 rec, 114 yards, 0 TD).

Yikes.

Of those options, Agholor has to, I mean has to, take advantage of his opportunities. Maybe it was his nine-catch, 84-yard performance in the Super Bowl that has me thinking goofy, but I believe he makes one or two big plays and climbs over 35.5 receiving yards.

 

Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

Cream Rises

The Eagles are 10-4 ATS against teams over .500 at Lincoln Financial Field under Doug Pederson. In fact, they are 9-2 ATS against .600+ teams and 6-1 ATS against .700+ teams at home under Pederson.

Beware of Dogs

The Eagles are 5-2 SU and ATS as a home underdog under Pederson–one of those losses was the 2017 Week 17 6-0 loss to Dallas in which the Eagles either didn’t play or pulled most of their starters early.

Not Quite as Good on the Road

Since the 2003 season, the Patriots are an NFL-best 78-49-3 ATS on the road in regular season games, but only 6-7 ATS since the start of last season.

 

Why Backing the Patriots is a Good Bet

They Rebound Like No Other

Since the 2004 season, the Patriots are 23-6 straight up and against the spread on the road following a loss. They’re 10-2 SU and ATS on the road following a loss of 10+ points. They’re 7-2 SU and ATS on the road following a bye week.

They Get Revenge Like No Other

The Patriots are 46-13 SU and 37-21-1 ATS against an opponent after losing the previous head-to-head matchup, including five straight wins. The Eagles are the last team to beat the Patriots in consecutive matchups.

Track Record

The Eagles haven’t won at home as an underdog of four points or more in over 15 years:

 

A Word on the Total

Doug Pederson’s Eagles at home and the under has been a great play dating back to his first season:

The under is 19-9 at Lincoln Financial Field and 15-3 in non-division games.

The under is 9-2 at The Linc when the Eagles play a team that reached the postseason the previous year. It’s also 8-2 there in games that close between 43-45 points.

 

Eagles vs. Patriots Prediction

This is one that I want to get wrong, but I just don’t see how the Eagles’ middling and now further depleted passing offense is going to make enough plays against the Patriots’ elite defense today. The recent resurgence of the Eagles’ rushing attack was probably the thing to feel best about, but with Jordan Howard now out, it’s hard to imagine the trio of Miles Sanders, Jay Ajayi, and Boston Scott controlling the game. Throw in New England’s outrageous ATS track record following:

  1. A loss
  2. A loss of 10+ points
  3. A head-to-head loss in the previous meeting between two teams

And, well, I just don’t see it. Again–I hope I’m wrong here, but I’ll take the Pats.

Note: That being said, if you like the Patriots but want to eliminate the field goal win/ATS bust nightmare scenario, you can grab them to win by 1-6 at DraftKings Sportsbook at +390. If you want to widen the range, you can also play them to win by 7-12 points at +420 as well.

Not only does this turn a field goal win by the Patriots into a cover, but it’s worth noting that the Eagles have only lost by more than 10 points once in Doug Pederson’s 30 games coached at Lincoln Financial Field.

Prediction: Patriots (-4) over Eagles

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