LSU vs. Alabama Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

lsu alabama betting prediction odds picks
PHOTO CREDIT: DERICK HINGLE-USA TODAY SPORTS

No. 1 LSU and No. 2 Alabama will meet on Saturday afternoon in Tuscaloosa and there will plenty on the line in this battle of unbeaten teams. Undoubtedly, this SEC showdown will have both major College Football Playoff and Heisman Trophy implications, and you can up the ante for yourself ahead of this one by getting in on the action at DraftKings Sportsbook PA which is the latest of the PA online sportsbooks to go fully live. Without further ado, let’s take a look at what you need to know before locking in your bets with our LSU vs. Alabama betting predictions and preview.

Despite already posting three wins over Top 10 teams and electric quarterback play by Heisman hopeful Joe Burrow (2,805 yards, 30 TDs), LSU finds itself as a sizable underdog heading into Bryant-Denny Stadium on Saturday afternoon.

Recent history might have something to do with it.

Alabama has won eight consecutive meetings between these two teams, and six of those wins have come by double digits, including the last four in which Alabama has limited LSU to only 6.5 points per game.

As if the head-to-head history wasn’t daunting enough for Ed Orgeron’s team, there’s also this: Alabama has won 31 straight home games overall and is 29-1 in conference games dating back to September 2015. Exactly three of those wins have come by seven points or less. That’s just silly.

Orgeron himself is 0-6 lifetime against Alabama and 0-4 against Nick Saban, so quite a few demons must be exorcised on Satruday afternoon if LSU is to earn its first win over Alabama since November 2011.

Can the Tigers pull off the upset over the Crimson Tide? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on LSU vs. Alabama

Pennsylvania

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New Jersey

Indiana

How to Watch LSU vs. Alabama

  • Date: Saturday, November 9
  • Time: 3:30 p.m. EST
  • Location: Bryant-Denny Stadium (Tuscaloosa, AL)
  • Network: CBS
  • Announcers: Brad Nessler (play-by-play), Gary Danielson (color analyst), Jamie Erdahl (sideline)

LSU vs. Alabama Weather

Ideal weather conditions are expected in Tuscaloosa on late Saturday afternoon with temperatures at kickoff in the mid 50s under sunny skies. Temps are expected to dip into the upper 40s after sunset with minimal to no winds throughout the contest.

LSU vs. Alabama Odds

Here are the current LSU vs. Alabama betting odds at DraftKings Sportsbook as of Friday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
LSU       +6 (-110)      +180   O 62 (-110)
Alabama       -6 (-110)      -230   U 62 (-110)

Note: The spread has held mostly firm throughout the week with Alabama favored anywhere between 5.5 to 6.5 points, but the total has plummeted from as high as 66 all the way down 62 as of Friday morning. Even with that shrinking number, the majority of over/under bets and over/under handle remains on the under.

Recommended Bets

Over at FOX Bet, Alabama (-6.5) is part of Colin Cowherd’s Marquee 3 bet boost this week, along with Penn State (-7) and Texas (-7). Grab all three to cover at a boosted +650 payout. FOX Bet is also offering tons of bet boosts on this game, which will be released on Saturday morning.

DraftKings Sportsbook is offering some fun odds boosts, including Tagovailoa and Burrow to combine for over 5.5 total touchdowns.

Win Probability

With Alabama a near-touchdown favorite on Saturday afternoon, let’s look at this one from a different angle by using ESPN’s FPI model.

Simply put, we like to do this because we feel that it’s often worth a look to compare the implied probability of the moneyline odds with a second source in order to see if any betting value exists.

As for this game, ESPN’s FPI index gives Alabama a 71.8% win probability over LSU.

In relation to the Crimson Tide’s FPI win probability, the -230 moneyline odds (69.7% implied win probability) at DraftKings Sportsbook mean that there is some ever so slight moneyline value on Alabama.

As for LSU, there’s no value whatsoever on the Tigers at +180 moneyline odds (35.7% implied win probability) when stacked against the FPI projection.

LSU vs. Alabama Injury Report

The injury report is solely focused on Alabama quarterback Tua Tagovailoa and his ability to play following a procedure to treat a right high ankle sprain:

Alabama head coach Nick Saban told reporters earlier this week that Tagovailoa, who has thrown 2,166 yards and 21 touchdowns this season, will be a game-time decision. The most recent indications are that Tagovailoa will play, but it remains unknown just how healthy he will be. Should he not be able to go, backup sophomore quarterback Mac Jones, who has all of 67 career passing attempts, will get the nod in what some are calling the game of the century. No pressure, guy.

LSU vs. Alabama: Three Things to Know

  1. To say this game has Heisman implications would be an understatement. Currently, Joe Burrow (+150) and Tua Tagovailoa (+225) are the top two Heisman Trophy candidates at DraftKings Sportsbook. Jalen Hurts (+350) and Justin Fields (+650) remain in the hunt, but if either of these quarterbacks steals the show on the big stage this Saturday afternoon, he will emerge as the clear-cut Heisman favorite heading down the final stretch.
  2. The last time LSU knocked off Alabama came eight years ago in a 9-6 overtime win. This game should play out much, much differently. The Tigers have the nation’s No. 4 scoring offense, while Alabama has the No. 2 scoring offense. Both Burrow, who already owns the LSU single-season passing touchdown record (30) with plenty of season left, and Tagovailoa are regarded as top NFL draft prospects. Meanwhile, each team possesses highly-regarded talent at receiver, thus there should be no shortage of explosive plays.
  3. The previous two times this century when the No. 1 team in the AP poll visited No. 2, No. 1 covered and won. LSU beat Alabama in 2011, and Ohio State knocked off Texas back in 2006.

LSU vs. Alabama Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2005 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing Alabama is a Good Bet

Alabama is 15-8-1 ATS after a bye under Saban since the 2007 season.

Home teams that are favored by 6.5 points or less are 9-4 ATS in games played between two undefeated teams after the month of September.

Why Backing LSU is a Good Bet

LSU is 6-0 ATS as an underdog since 2017 and 3-0 ATS as a road underdog.

Alabama is 1-4-1 ATS when a home favorite of 7 points or less.

No. 2 ranked teams in the AP poll are 1-5 ATS at home when favored by seven points or less.

The road team is 14-8-1 ATS in regular season games between two Top 5 teams, while road underdogs are 10-4 ATS.

All underdogs are 19-11-2 ATS in games between two Top 5 teams and are 10-4-1 ATS when the game features two SEC teams.

A Word on the Total

When two SEC teams are ranked in the Top 10 and the total is at least 60 points, the over is 3-0-2. No game game has been set at more than 63 points between two Top 10 SEC teams this century, so if the over/under creeps back up prior to kickoff, this could be a historic number. The under is 9-5 in the last 14 meetings between these teams and 4-3 over the last seven games played in Tuscaloosa.

I don’t love playing such a high number in a high-stakes game, but my lean is that these two offenses meet the hype and do enough to push this one over the total.

Where’s the Action?

As noted above, the spread has remained relatively consistent, while the total has plummeted from a staggering open at 66 down to 62 as of Friday afternoon. To put that number in perspective, these two teams haven’t combined to eclipse 60 points since the 2007 season when LSU won a 41-34 shootout.

Currently, 58% of all spread bets and 67% of the spread handle is on LSU. As for the total, 64% of bets and 57% of the handle are on the under.

LSU vs. Alabama Prediction

Going into Tuscaloosa and knocking off the Crimson Tide has been virtually impossible since Nick Saban arrived in town, but this LSU team is battle-tested (three wins over Top 10 opponents), has the passing attack to take advantage of a vulnerable (at least for Alabama’s lofty standards) defense, and should be extremely motivated to finally deliver a counterpunch after being thoroughly dominated in recent seasons. I expect Tagovailoa to play and play well, but six points is a lot and the historical data suggests the Tigers are the right side–at least against the spread.

Prediction: LSU (+6) over Alabama

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