The Steelers are back at .500 after ripping off a third straight win last week and suddenly find themselves very much in the thick of a wide-open AFC playoff race after a dismal 1-4 start. The bad news for Pittsburgh? They’ll have to stop one of the NFC’s most talented teams in the Los Angeles Rams later this afternoon at Heinz Field. Still, while the Rams enter this one as a four-point favorite at most PA online sportsbooks, the Steelers have thrived as an underdog under head coach Mike Tomlin. Can they get it done on Sunday afternoon? Let’s find out with our Rams vs. Steelers betting predictions and preview.
After a Week 5 loss at home to the Ravens, the Steelers looked left for dead. FiveThirtyEight’s ELO projections gave Pittsburgh just an 11% chance to reach the postseason. With quarterback Ben Roethlisberger already gone for the season and backup quarterback Mason Rudolph out with a concussion, it was left up to third-stringer Devlin Hodges to keep the Steelers’ season on life support against the Chargers. He did just that, and now Pittsburgh currently holds a 37% chance of reaching the postseason with a favorable schedule after this week that includes two shots at the reeling Browns, the Bengals, and the up-and-down Cardinals.
The immediate task at hand is much more daunting, however, as the Rams bounced back from a shocking three-game losing streak with a pair of convincing wins before heading into their bye week. That sets up a key non-conference showdown between two teams looking to solidify their postseason position down the stretch. Which team will get it done (and cover the spread)? Let’s get into it.
How to Bet on Steelers vs. Rams
How to Watch Steelers vs. Rams
- Date: Sunday, November 10
- Time: 4:25 p.m. EST
- Location: Heinz Field (Pittsburgh, PA)
- Network: FOX
- Announcers: Chris Myers (play-by-play), Daryl Johnston (color analyst), Laura Okmin (sideline)
- Radio: 102.5 WDVE & WBGG 970 AM (Pittsburgh), 103.9 ESPN (Los Angeles)
Steelers vs. Rams Weather
The weather on late Sunday afternoon in Pittsburgh will be seasonably cool with temperatures expected in the low 50s under mostly cloudy skies at kickoff. Temperatures will dip into the upper 40s by the fourth quarter with light southwest winds blowing 6-8 mph. There is a 10% chance of a stray rain shower. In other words, the weather isn’t expected to play much of a factor.
Steelers vs. Rams Odds
Here are the current Steelers vs. Rams betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of 10:00 a.m. Sunday morning:
|Rams||-4 (-110)||-212||O 43 (-118)|
|Steelers||+4 (-110)||+175||U 43 (+100)|
|Rams||-4.5 (-110)||-190||O 43 (-110)|
|Steelers||+4.5 (-110)||+165||U 43 (-110)|
We think it’s a worthwhile exercise to evaluate multiple sources for pronounced disparities between the betting odds and projection models in search of potential betting value.
As for today’s game, the ELO projection model has the Rams -2.5 and with a 60% win probability. With Los Angeles -4 currently at most sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there’s about 1.5 points of betting value on the Steelers.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of DraftKings -190 moneyline odds on the Rams is 65.5%, which means that the moneyline price is a shade more expensive than what the ELO projection would suggest (-150 would be in line with a 60% win probability).
As for the Steelers, the implied win probability of their +165 moneyline odds at FanDuel is 37.7%, meaning there is some slight value on their moneyline price.
Steelers vs. Rams Injury Report
Steelers Injury Report
Running backs James Conner and Benny Snell Jr. will both miss this game as will fullback Roosevelt Nix and guard Ramon Foster. Making matters worse for Pittsburgh, the Steelers could also be without starting wide receiver JuJu Smith-Schuster (toe), who was added to the injury report late in the week. If he misses the game, we won’t get to see this little subplot play out:
Jalen Ramsey on JuJu Smith-Schuster: With all due respect, he's not AB https://t.co/8Png9vV1Ls
— ProFootballTalk (@ProFootballTalk) November 8, 2019
As for the Rams, wide receiver Brandin Cooks (concussion) has been ruled out. The Rams do expect the return of linebacker Clay Matthews and running back Malcolm Brown.
DraftKings Sportsbook is running some solid promos for its first weekend of betting in PA:
Steelers TD Promo: Bet up to $25 on the Steelers moneyline with DraftKings Sportsbook in Pennsylvania and get a $6 free bet for every touchdown they score.
Offensive Defense: This promo gives those who lose a pregame moneyline bet up to a $25 refund if their team scores 24+ points but still goes on to lose. This promo would’ve bailed out bettors who had the Steelers in their 28-26 loss to the Seahawks back in Week 2.
FOX Bet is offering a boost that includes the Rams in Colin Cowherd’s Blazin’ 5 Special. Get a +100 payout if at least three of the following five plays hit: Jets +3, Cardinals +5, Panthers +4.5, Rams -4, and 49ers -6.5.
Steelers vs. Rams Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Steelers is a Good Bet
Mike Tomlin’s Steelers haven’t found themselves as an underdog all that much during his tenure, but they’ve been excellent against the spread when they have been:
- The Steelers are 20-9-2 ATS as an underdog of three points or more under Mike Tomlin.
- The Steelers are 8-3-1 ATS as a home underdog under Tomlin.
- The Steelers are 5-1-2 ATS as a home underdog of three points or more and 3-1 ATS as a home underdog of 3.5 or more under Tomlin.
- The Steelers are 30-20 ATS overall and 16-9 ATS under Tomlin against NFC foes. They are 10-5 ATS against NFC teams as an underdog.
There’s no Place Like Home
Underdogs playing their third straight game at home are 28-21-2 ATS.
Why Backing the Rams is a Good Bet
We just mentioned that home underdogs are 28-21-2 ATS when playing a third straight game at home, but they are only 7-11 ATS in that spot when coming off a win in their previous game and 1-5 ATS when a dog of at least 3.5 points. Such teams are also 0-2 ATS when on a three-game winning streak.
Rested Road Favorites are Money
Road favorites off a bye are 64-33-2 ATS and are 20-11-1 ATS when favored between 3-4 points.
Road favorites off a bye week are 39-16 ATS in games played after the month of October.
Solid Away From Home
The Rams are 9-6 ATS as a road favorite under head coach Sean McVay.
Steelers’ November Struggles
The Steelers are only 10-13-1 ATS under Tomlin at Heinz Field in the month of November.
A Word on the Total
The under is 8-4 in non-conference games with a total that closes between 43-45 points when the road team is coming off a bye. The under is 3-0 during the month of November in this situation.
Steelers vs. Rams Prediction
It’s time to make a Steelers vs. Rams prediction.
I’m going to keep this simple. Kudos to the Steelers for resurrecting their season. There’s a good chance they will remain in the playoff hunt until the end, but I believe they’re in store for a setback this week. While I’m wary of the Steelers’ success as an underdog under Tomlin, the Rams are rested and road favorites off a bye, particularly later in the season, tend to be the right play. With a depleted rushing attack, I’m not sure the Steelers’ passing game can make enough plays to cover this spread.
Prediction: Rams (-4) over Steelers