Saints vs. Falcons Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

saints vs falcons betting prediction
PHOTO CREDIT: CHUCK COOK-USA TODAY SPORTS

The final course of Thanksgiving action comes when the Saints and Falcons get together in Atlanta tonight as New Orleans looks to exact revenge for a surprising blowout loss to their division rivals earlier this month. If they do just that, the Saints will clinch the NFC South crown for a third straight season. As for you, well, you’re probably either looking to put an exclamation point on a memorable day of Thanksgiving wagering, or you’re looking to exact a little revenge for some tough earlier breaks. Let’s take a look at all of the need-to-know info with our Saints vs. Falcons betting prediction.

How to Bet on Saints vs. Falcons

Pennsylvania

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As usual, the legal online sportsbooks are offering tons of great sign up specials and bonuses, but they are also serving up some generous holiday-themed promos this Thanksgiving.

We strongly suggest PA bettors check out FOX Bet PA for its $20 signup bonus and $100 deposit match that you can grab here .

DraftKings Sportsbook PA is another top option because of its aggressive $200 first-bet match offer and $100 risk-free parlay special that is available to users today. You can catch those deals right here .

Indiana

DraftKings Sportsbook Indiana offers the same $200 first bet match and up to a $500 deposit bonus. Take advantage of those offers right here .

FanDuel Sportsbook is one of the state’s best betting apps and gives users a $500 risk-free first bet. Additionally, FanDuel Sportsbook is running a Thanksgiving Double Winnings promo. Place a pregame OVER bet on any of the day’s three games (or all three), and FanDuel will double your winnings up to $50 in bonus credit on each bet that hits.

New Jersey

PointsBet offers new users a free $100 when you deposit $50 and has several player prop boosts available for this game.

Saints vs. Falcons Odds

Here are the current Saints vs. Falcons betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of early Thursday morning:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Saints        -6.5 (-114)     -286   O 48.5 (-110)
Falcons        +6.5 (-106)      +250   U 48.5 (-110)

FOX Bet

      Spread     Money        Total
Saints       -6.5 (-118)     -300   O 47.5 (-110)
Falcons       +6.5(+100)     +245   U 47.5 (-105)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Saints       -6.5 (-110)      -300   O 48.5 (-110)
Falcons       +6.5 (+110)      +250   U 48.5 (-105)

Win Probability

FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection is pretty much in line with the market’s point spread in this game.

ELO projects the Saints as a six-point favorite and calculates a 70% win probability. With New Orleans currently favored by 6.5 points across several popular sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly a half point of betting value on the Saints.

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -286 moneyline price on the Saints at DraftKings is 74.1%, which means the moneyline price is far more expensive than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-233 would be in line with a 70% win probability).

As for the Falcons, the implied win probability of their +250 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 28.6%, meaning there is some slight moneyline value on taking the Falcons to win outright.

Saints vs. Falcons Injury Report

Each team comes into this matchup with some significant injury concerns.

Saints Injury Report Analysis

Second-team All-Pro left tackle Terron Armstead was injured in the Saints’ win over Carolina last week and is out. Guard Andrus Peat also remains out after breaking his forearm when these two teams met earlier this month. Backup guard Will Clapp is also questionable.

Needless to say, the Saints have some depth concerns along the offensive line, which is even more problematic given Atlanta sacked quarterback Drew Brees six times back on Nov. 10. That being said, the Falcons have recorded only 18 sacks this season. After recording 11 sacks in convincing wins over the Saints and Panthers earlier this month, the Falcons’ defensive momentum was halted last Sunday when they failed to register one in a 35-22 loss to the Bucs.

Defensively, cornerback Marshon Lattimore is questionable with a hamstring injury.

Falcons Injury Report Analysis

Running back Devonta Freeman will return after a two-game absence, but wide receiver Julio Jones (shoulder) didn’t practice this week and will be a game-time decision. That’s obviously the big one–Jones has 64 catches for 950 yards and four touchdowns this season.

Defensively for the Falcons, defensive end Takk McKinley (shoulder) was limited this week and is questionable.

Recommended Bets

As we said earlier, there are some excellent holiday offers out there. Let’s take a look at some of the best.

DraftKings Sportsbook is serving up several Thanksgiving Day promos, including:

  • A $5 free bet on any game
  • A risk-free $5 flash bet on result of drive or next team to score
  • An extra-leg parlay in which DraftKings will pay out a winning three-leg parlay as if you hit a fourth-leg (33% profit boost)
  • Bet $25 on the total of any game and get a bonus $5 for every turnover and $1 for every sack

DraftKings also has two player prop boosts available:

  • Alvin Kamara and Michael Thomas each to score a touchdown (+190 boosted to +250)
  • Matt Ryan & Drew Brees to record over 5.5 combined passing touchdowns (+300 boosted to +350)

Analysis: Let’s look at the Kamara and Thomas prop. Both players are key cogs in the Saints’ dangerous offensive attack, but Kamara (947 yards from scrimmage) has only scored twice this season and both of those scores came in the Saints’ 33-27 win over Seattle back in September. It was the only game this season in which both players reached the end zone.

Thomas, who has hauled in 94 catches for 1,242 yards and six scores, could break Marvin Harrison’s single season catch record (143) and is one of the game’s most potent offensive weapons, so I’m always down to back one of his props. Despite Atlanta’s outstanding defensive effort in New Orleans earlier this month, I’m inclined to look at it as an outlier given the Falcons’ overall defensive woes this season. Plus, the Saints’ dynamic attack has scored 34 points in each of its past two games. I think both players find the end zone tonight.

FOX Bet is offering nine different game and player prop bet boosts, including

  • Alvin Kamara to score a TD in the first quarter (+380 boosted from +350)
  • Saints -2.5, Drew Brees 300+ passing yards, Thomas 85+ receiving yards, Saints 3+ TD (+450 boosted from +400)

Analysis: Kamara hasn’t found the end zone since Week 3, but it almost feels like getting him a score has to be a point of emphasis tonight. Kamara accounted for 20 touches (11 carries, 9 receptions) for 102 total yards from scrimmage a week ago. He’s simply too explosive and too integral to the Saints’ offense not to find the end zone at some point soon. Certainly, Sean Payton will want to throw the first punch after his team’s embarrassing effort the last time he matched wits with Dan Quinn, so this prop may be worth a shot.

Let’s also take a look at this Saints-based prop above. They are the superior team that is also in a revenge spot, so I like the idea of this play from a contextual standpoint. New Orleans at -2.5 gives bettors roughly four points of line value, while Brees is coming off a game in which he completed 30 of 39 passes for 311 yards. There’s no reason to think that he can’t eclipse 300 yards again tonight against an Atlanta defense that has allowed four 300 yard passers this season. As for Thomas, it seems almost a given that he will go over 85 receiving yards. He has done so in 10 of his 11 games this year, which includes five straight 100+ yard performances. This prop is certainly worth a small wager at +450 odds.

Saints vs. Falcons Betting Trends

Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Saints is a Good Bet

Favorites are 73-46-3 ATS in Thursday games played in November or December, while road favorites are 46-26-2 ATS.

Road teams favored by 6.5 to 7.5 points are 33-24-2 ATS in division games played in November or later.

Road favorites that lost the previous head-to-head matchup by 10+ points are 13-7-1 ATS in division games in November or later and 38-28-3 ATS when losing by any margin.

Why Backing the Falcons is a Good Bet

The Saints are 14-11 ATS against the Falcons overall under Sean Payton and 7-5 ATS on the road but only 2-6 ATS when favored by 6+ points.

A Word on the Total

No official play here, but my lean is on the under.

The under is 65-54-3 on Thursdays in November or December.

The under is 52-41-3 in conference games played on Thursdays in November or December. It’s also 40-26-3 in division games played on Thursdays during these two months. The under is 8-5-1 in these late-season division games on Thursdays when both teams are coming off an over.

Finally, the under is 69-49-2 in NFC South games played in November or December and 28-19-1 when total is at least 48 points.

Where’s the Action Going?

As of early Thursday morning, 82% of all spread bets and 85% of the spread handle is on the Saints at reporting sportsbooks. Meanwhile, 72% of bets and 76% of the money is on the over.

Saints vs. Falcons Prediction

I don’t see how Atlanta’s pass defense, which enters 29th in DVOA, keeps the Saints in check tonight. Favorites tend to typically cover on a short week, and the Saints will be looking to issue some payback for that loss to the Falcons earlier this month. I’m not overthinking this one.

Prediction: Saints (-6.5) over Falcons 

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