It will be a rematch of last season’s AFC Championship Game when New England and Kansas City get together at Gillette Stadium later this afternoon, and we’ve got everything you need to know ahead of this crucial Week 14 showdown with our Chiefs vs. Patriots betting prediction and picks.
Despite struggling a week ago on the road at Houston, the Patriots return home where they have been virtually unbeatable late in the season against conference foes since the turn of the century. New England’s home dominance against AFC squads isn’t just limited to the month of December, as the Patriots have rattled off 14 straight wins against conference opponents dating back to the start of the 2017 season. Their last home loss? It came at the hands of the Chiefs, a team which will be looking to exact some revenge for the Patriots’ dramatic win at Arrowhead Stadium that clinched their spot in Super Bowl 53. Which team will get it done today and cover the spread? Let’s get into it.
How to Bet on Chiefs vs. Patriots
‘Tis the season for giving and the legal online sportsbooks are spreading some holiday cheer this Sunday.
DraftKings, FanDuel, and FOX Bet are each available in New Jersey, but we also strongly recommend PointsBet for its excellent new user offer. PointsBet gives bettors a free $100 with a $50 deposit at sign up.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Odds
Here are the current Chiefs vs. Patriots betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of Sunday morning:
|Chiefs||+3 (-105)||+145||O 49 (-110)|
|Patriots||-3 (-117)||-167||U 49 (-110)|
|Chiefs||+3 (-105)||+135||O 49 (-110)|
|Patriots||-3 (-110)||-154||U 49 (-110)|
|Chiefs||+3 (+100)||+136||O 49.5 (-110)|
|Patriots||-3 (-120)||-154||U 49.5 (-110)|
ELO projects the Patriots as a four-point favorite and calculates a 63% win probability for the home team. With New England currently favored by three points at the legal books, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly one point of betting value on the Patriots.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -154 moneyline price on the Patriots at FOX Bet is 60.6%, which means the moneyline price is just a bit cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-170 would be in line with a 63% win probability).
As for the Chiefs, the implied win probability of their +135 moneyline odds at FOX Bet is 42.6%, meaning there exists no value on a Kansas City moneyline play in relation to the ELO probability.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Injury Report
Patriots Injury Report
The Patriots will be without defensive lineman Byron Cowart (head) and offensive lineman Ted Karras (knee), while six players are questionable–including some significant names. Linebacker Ja’Whaun Bentley (knee), offensive tackle Marcus Cannon (illness), safety Patrick Chung (heel), wide receiver Julian Edelman (shoulder), corner Jason McCourty (groin), and wide receiver Mohamed Sanu (ankle) are each questionable, but expected to suit up.
#Patriots WR Julian Edelman (shoulder) and WR Mohamed Sanu (ankle) are both expected to play today, sources say, They are in a good spot.
— Ian Rapoport (@RapSheet) December 8, 2019
Chiefs Injury Report
The Chiefs will be down corners Morris Claiborne (shoulder) and Rashad Fenton (knee), which is good news for a struggling Patriots passing attack. Defensive end Frank Clark (shoulder/illness) is questionable, while Andy Reid’s offense will be without the services of running back Damien Williams (ribs), who had quite the game against New England last January:
Damien Williams with THREE TDs this quarter 🔥
— Bleacher Report (@BleacherReport) January 21, 2019
His absence comes in the wake of the news that fellow running back Darrel Williams was placed on injured reserve earlier in the week, so that means LeSean McCoy is expected to lead the way. McCoy doesn’t have more than 12 carries in any game this season and has only 15 total rushes over his last three games. Spencer Ware and Darwin Thompson are also expected to share the load.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Betting Specials
Over at FOX Bet, Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Special continues to be a solid promo. Users can follow Cowherd’s pack of five picks (Ravens -6, Browns -7.5, Broncos +8.5, Chiefs +3, Cardinals +2.5), and if he gets at least three picks right, bettors cash at +100 odds. FOX Bet is also offering nine different bet boosts for this game, including:
- Mahomes to throw for 300+ yards an Chiefs to win (+400)
- Chiefs +3.5, Mahomes 300+ pass yards, Hill 75+ receiving yards, Chiefs 3+ TD (+650)
- James White to score anytime, Pats to cover -3.5, and over 49.5 points (+750)
DraftKings Sportsbook has a boosted game parlay on the Patriots, Steelers, and Titans to all win at +450, as well as Patrick Mahomes to record over 2.5 passing touchdowns boosted to +200.
Finally, FanDuel Sportsbook is offering Close Loss Insurance in which you can get a $50 refund on losing pre-game money line bets if your team loses by six points or less. With a close game expected between these two teams, that promo might be worth a look.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Chiefs is a Good Bet
The Chiefs are 30-10 ATS as a road team against conference opponents under Andy Reid. They are 7-3 ATS on the road against conference opponents with a .700 winning percentage or better.
Why Backing the Patriots is a Good Bet
Since 2017, the Patriots are 22-2 straight up and 16-8 ATS at home home, having won 21 consecutive games at Gillette Stadium.
The Patriots have won 14 straight conference games at home (10-4 ATS) since losing to the Chiefs, 42-27, in September 2017.
The Patriots are 25-1 at home straight up and 18-8 ATS against AFC teams in the month of December, but they were only favored by three points or less in just one of those games.
The Game Total
Our lean is on the under in this game.
The over is 25-35-1 in conference games between a road team with a .600 record or better and a home team with a .700 record or better in December or later. The over is also only 3-7-1 when the total closes between 48-50 points in this situation, and it’s 1-5 when the total closes between 48.5-50 points.
Where’s the Action?
As of early Sunday morning, 52% of spread bets and 59% of the spread handle backs the Chiefs. As for the total, roughly 49% of bets and 57% of the money sides with the over.
Bets We Like
Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 Special at FOX Bet. Sign up right here.
Cowherd has the Ravens -6, Browns -7.5, Broncos +8.5, Chiefs +3, and Cardinals +2.5 this week. Three of these picks must win in order to cash the bet. We’re in an agreement with Cowherd on the Ravens, Chiefs and Cardinals. You can find out why right here with our full slate of Week 14 NFL picks.
Mahomes Over 2.5 passing touchdowns (boosted to +200 at DraftKings Sportsbook). Get it here .
The Patriots aren’t in the business of allowing passing touchdowns–they’ve only given up eight scores through the air in 13 games this season. In fact, the four passing touchdowns they allowed last week at Houston equaled their season total:
Passing TD allowed by the Patriots in Weeks 1-12: 4
Passing TD allowed by the Patriots tonight: 4
— Field Yates (@FieldYates) December 2, 2019
As for Mahomes, he enters this game having thrown for three or more touchdowns in 5 of his 10 starts this season, but is coming off of back-to-back performances in which he’s thrown for just one touchdown. I’d be wary of this play if it were an even proposition, but at boosted +200 odds, there’s some value here. The Chiefs are down two of their top three running backs, and it seems probable that Mahomes is going to have to “out duel” Brady if Kansas City is to win this game.
Team to win by 1-13 points at FanDuel Sportsbook. Get it here .
Our pick is on the the Chiefs to cover the number, but you can get creative with FanDuel’s winning margin offerings. It’s hard to envision a blowout in this game. Kansas City’s defense isn’t good enough to bury New England, while it’s hard to imagine the Patriots’ struggling offense separating from the Chiefs’ attack.
Personally, I’m going to make the Chiefs +3 my primary play and add a smaller bet on them to win by 1-13 points at +200 odds, but if you’re on New England, grabbing the Patriots to win by 1-13 points at +145 odds also makes some sense for a few reasons. Not only is it a stronger payout, but bettors won’t get beat in the event of a Patriots win/Chiefs cover in a close contest, and they would also cash instead of settling for a push in the event New England wins by a field goal.
Chiefs vs. Patriots Prediction
A look at the history suggests a daunting task for the Chiefs today. Not only have the Patriots been lights out at home, particularly against conference opponents late in the season, but they are also 16-3 straight up (11-8 ATS) as a home favorite following a loss dating back to the 2003 season. The Chiefs’ injury concerns in both the secondary and running game are also concerning, but I simply think Kansas City possesses the explosiveness New England lacks. It feels like the Chiefs have been a bit under the radar this season. The Ravens (+240) and Patriots (+400) are both far more heavily favored than the Chiefs (+1100) in the current Super Bowl odds, but I expect Andy Reid’s team to come out strong today and make a statement.
Prediction: Chiefs (+3) over Patriots