Happy holidays, Eagles fans. I greet you this first day of December with some cheerful tidings about your football team.
The Eagles can, somehow, put the injuries, the drama, and their recent offensive ineptitude that was on full display in back-to-back duds all in the rearview mirror by simply beating the Miami Dolphins today. That’s right, knock off a 2-9 Dolphins team that has been outscored by 183 points this season and the Eagles will once again be deadlocked with Dallas atop the NFC East standings. Despite mustering only 19 combined points in two uninspiring losses to the Patriots and Seahawks over the last two weeks, the Eagles head south as a double-digit favorite. Just how rare is it for a team with offensive woes like the Eagles’ to be favored by 10 points or more? It hasn’t happened in at least 17 seasons, so pretty rare. Can we trust the Eagles to lay the big number right now? We’ll try to answer that question with our Eagles vs. Dolphins betting prediction.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Odds
Here are the current Eagles vs. Dolphins betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks.
|Eagles||-10 (-110)||-500||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Dolphins||+10 (-110)||+410||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-10.5 (-110)||-500||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Dolphins||+10.5 (-110)||+400||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-10.5 (+100)||-550||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Dolphins||+10.5 (-118)||+425||U 44.5 (-110)|
How to Bet on Eagles vs. Dolphins
Here’s a quick look at some of the best ways to bet the Eagles and Dolphins at online sportsbooks:
DraftKings Sportsbook PA offers a $200 risk-free first bet match for new users and is offering the Eagles, Packers, Colts, and Panthers to win outright at a boosted +300 payout. Grab those deals right here .
FOX Bet PA offers a $20 signup bonus, a $100 deposit match, and has two different boosted parlay options available on this game. Grab the Ravens, Packers, Eagles, Browns, Rams, and Chiefs all to win at +800 odds, or roll with the Dolphins (+9.5) as part of Colin Cowherd’s Blazing 5 that also includes the Ravens (-5.5), Panthers (-9.5), Cardinals (+3), and Raiders (+9.5). If three of Cowherd’s picks win, you win. Get in on the action by clicking here .
FanDuel Sportsbook PA continues to run a $500 risk-free bet offer for new users along with Close Loss Insurance of up to $50 on all moneyline wagers that lose by six points or less, and $25 same game parlay insurance. If one leg doesn’t hit, FanDuel will refund users up to $25.
The above promos are also available in NJ. For a comprehensive look at the market, hit our NJ online sports betting page that’s loaded with sportsbook reviews, welcome offers, and signup bonuses.
The FiveThirtyEight ELO model shows substantial value on the Dolphins.
ELO projects the Eagles as only a six-point favorite and calculates a 70% win probability. With Philly currently favored by as many as 10.5 points at some sportsbooks, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 4-4.5 points of value on the Dolphins.
Note: This is one of the largest disparities we’ve seen this year.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -500 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 83.3%, which means the moneyline price is greatly more expensive than what ELO suggests to be appropriate (-233 would be in line with a 70% win probability). As for the Dolphins, the implied win probability of their +410 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 19.6%, meaning there’s excellent value on this side.
The FPI model has the Eagles with a 79.8% win probability. While it’s substantially more bullish on the likelihood of an Eagles’ win today, it reaches the same conclusion–the value is on the Dolphins.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Injury Report
Here is a look at both teams’ final injury report:
Eagles Injury Report Analysis
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) November 29, 2019
The Eagles may not be fully healthy, but they are getting healthier. Right tackle Lane Johnson and wide receivers Nelson Agholor and Alshon Jeffery are each expected to play after missing time. Right guard Brandon Brooks, who had to leave the Eagles’ loss to the Seahawks last week due to an anxiety-related illness, is also expected to play. Tight end Zach Ertz (hamstring) is a game-time decision. Ertz has 37 more targets than any other Eagles receiver this season, so that’s a big one. Stay tuned.
Dolphins Injury Report Analysis
The Dolphins are thin everywhere, but especially so in the secondary. After losing several key defensive backs to IR earlier this season, now their replacements are banged up.
Ken Crawley (shoulder), Ryan Lewis (chest), Ken Webster (ankle), and safety Steven Parker (groin) each spent time on the injury report this week. Lewis and Webster are expected to play, while the statuses of Crawley and Parker remain up in the air.
The Dolphins will also have the services of wide receivers Albert Wilson and Allen Hurns against the Eagles.
In addition to the two different parlay boosts mentioned above, FOX Bet is offering nine different game and player prop bet boosts, including:
- Carson Wentz 3+ Passing TDs and Eagles Win (+190)
- Ryan Fitzpatrick 300+ passing yards and Dolphins Win (+750)
- Dolphins +17.5, Ryan Fitzpatrick 245+ passing yards, and DeVante Parker 60+ receiving yards (+400)
Analysis: Let’s start with the Carson Wentz/Eagles win prop. It’s fair to presume that the Eagles will win this game outright given they are a substantial favorite. As for the Wentz part of the equation, well, it has been a rough go for him as of late. He is coming off of arguably his worst game as a pro last week and has only thrown for three touchdowns twice this season. In fact, he hasn’t thrown for three touchdowns in a game since the Eagles’ Week 4 win at Green Bay. He’s also failed to throw multiple touchdowns passes in each of his last five games.
And yet, there’s reason for optimism. Wentz faces a decimated Miami defense that is ranked 32nd in DVOA pass efficiency, 30th in yards per completion, and 31st in opponent passer rating. He gets Jeffery, Agholor, and the right side of his offensive line back in this one, too. If he can’t put it together today, then there’s going to be big problems.
As for the Dolphins +17.5, Fitzpatrick over 245+ passing yards, and Parker 60+ receiving yards prop, there’s some value here. The Eagles too often don’t score enough to cover big numbers. They’ve scored 22 points or less in five of their last six games and have only two wins by at least 18 points. The Dolphins, meanwhile, have mixed in a couple of 17-point losses, including last week at Cleveland, but have not lost by 18+ points in eight games. They’ve been bad, but they’ve been quasi-competitive in recent weeks after a historically woeful September in which they were outscored by 137 points in four games.
Fitzpatrick has eclipsed 245+ passing yards in three of his eight starts this season, and though the Eagles pass defense has been much improved since Week 8, you may recall last season when he completed 27 of 33 passes for 402 yards and four touchdowns against Jim Schwartz’s unit:
— NFL Update (@MySportsUpdate) September 16, 2018
Finally, Parker has eclipsed 60 receiving yards five times this season, including in each of his last three outings, so you could consider him hot right now–at least by Miami’s standards.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Prop Bet We Like
Alshon Jeffery to Score a Touchdown (+140 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Jeffery has only three touchdown receptions this season and hasn’t scored since mid-October, but the hope here is that he’s now fully healthy after being sidelined for nearly a month. He’s got an advantageous matchup, and the Eagles desperately need the passing game to get back on track. The return of Jeffery, regardless of his own struggles this season, should help the cause.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Betting Trends
Note: All historical trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise noted.
Why the Eagles are a Good Bet
We Just Don’t See This Very Often
We simply just don’t see double-digit road favorites following two losses, particularly after showing such offensive futility. Check this out:
- No road team has been favored by eight or more points following at least two games in which they scored 10 points or less.
- Road favorites of any spread that have lost two straight games in which they scored 10 points or less are 2-2-1 ATS. Any spread…only five times. Crazy.
My read is that this speaks volumes about what the oddsmakers think of the Dolphins right now, particularly against a motivated Eagles team that will finish the day tied for the NFC East lead with a win.
A Decent Spot for Road Favorites
Road favorites on a two-game losing streak are 37-31-4 ATS in November or later.
Road favorites of 9-11 points are 16-11 ATS in non-conference games and 13-8 ATS in all games as a double-digit favorite.
Doug Pederson’s ATS Success as a Bigger Favorite
The Eagles are 7-3 ATS as a favorite of five points or more under Pederson.
Why the Dolphins are a Good Bet
Struggling Teams and Big Numbers Don’t Mix
There are some pretty rough trends out there for struggling teams laying big points like the Eagles are today:
- Road favorites of 9.5 points or more that lost their previous game are only 11-16 ATS in November or later. They’re only 3-7 ATS when the spread is between 10-11 points and 7-13 ATS when the spread is between 9-11 points.
- Teams below .500 are only 12-17 ATS when favored by 9.5-11 points.
- Below .500 teams that are double-digit favorites of any number are only 4-11-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse.
- Double-digit favorites with a .350-.490 winning percentage are only 3-9-1 ATS against teams with a winning percentage of .200 or worse.
Meanwhile, home underdogs of 9-11 points are 40-27 ATS.
A Word on the Total
I was curious about trends that match up with the Eagles’ recent offensive woes. Here’s what I found:
- The over is 12-4 in games with a closing total of 43.5-45.5 points when the visiting team has scored 10 points or less in two straight games.
- The over is 5-0 in games with a closing total of 43.5-45.5 points when the visiting team has gone under in three straight games and has scored 10 points or less in two straight games.
- The over is 9-2 in games played with a closing total of 44-45.5 points when the visiting team has scored 10 points or less in two straight games.
- The over is 63-42-3 with any closing total when the road team has scored 10 points or less in two straight games.
Where’s the Action Going?
As of early Sunday morning, 62% of all spread bets and 58% of the spread money is on the Eagles at reporting sportsbooks. Meanwhile, 41% of bets and 47% of the money is on the over.
Eagles vs. Dolphins Prediction
I’m not in love with the idea of laying 10 points with a team that has struggled to score 10 points over its last two games, but…
This point spread is essentially unprecedented for a struggling road favorite, and I think there’s a reason for that. Lots of credit should go to the Dolphins for playing a more respectable brand of football in recent weeks (they’re 5-2 ATS over their last seven games), but their banged up secondary presents Carson Wentz and the Eagles offense with a golden opportunity to get back on track today. I wouldn’t be surprised if Fitzpatrick made a big play or two, but I ultimately expect the Eagles to pull away and cover the spread.
In terms of the total, the historical trends suggest that some points will be scored following the Eagles’ recent string of games played with low point totals. I expect an element of some late-season non-conference sloppiness and the total to get over the number.
Prediction: Eagles (-10) over Dolphins, OVER 44.5 points