Eagles vs. Giants Betting Prediction: Odds and Picks

eagles giants betting prediction

The NFC East will be on the line at MetLife Stadium later this afternoon, so let’s break down this crucial Week 17 matchup with our Eagles vs. Giants betting prediction and picks.

The Eagles (8-7) can secure the NFC East title and the No. 4 seed in the NFC Playoffs with a win or tie over the Giants (4-11), but doing so figures to be no easy task. New York’s offense has awakened over the past two weeks, scoring a combined 77 points in wins over the Dolphins and Redskins. That’s not exactly elite competition, sure, but it remains bad news for an Eagles defense that hasn’t traveled well this season. In fact, Jim Schwartz’s unit has yielded at least 27 points in five of its last six games away from Lincoln Financial Field.

Carson Wentz, who has thrown for a total of 910 yards and six touchdowns against no interceptions in the midst of the Eagles’ late season surge, will look to lead a decimated offense without its top three receivers, top tight end, and likely its starting right tackle to one more victory. Can he do it? Let’s get into it.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. Giants


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DraftKings Sportsbook PA is once again offering exclusive +300 moneyline odds on the Eagles to win through Crossing Broad. Given the Eagles are priced around -200 on the moneyline, this deal offers quite a bit of value. Grab it here.

FOX Bet PA continues to offer new users a $20 signup bonus and $100 deposit match that you can get in on here.

New Jersey

DraftKings, FanDuel Sportsbook, and FOX Bet are also terrific options for New Jersey bettors, but we also like PointsBet because of its excellent new user offer. PointsBet gives bettors a free $100 with a $50 deposit at sign up and does a fantastic job of incentivizing users with unique promo deals.


Eagles vs. Giants Odds

[sportsbook filters=”teams:Philadelphia Eagles,books:DraftKings”]

The Eagles were a 4.5-point favorite earlier in the week, but market pressure has dropped them to a 3.5-point favorite as of Sunday morning. Here are the Eagles vs. Giants betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:

DraftKings Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles        -3.5 (-115)      -195   O 45 (-110)
Giants        +3.5 (-106)      +165   U 45 (-110)


      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles       -4 (+100)     -188   O 44.5 (-110)
Giants       +4 (-118     +160   U  44.5 (-110)

FanDuel Sportsbook

      Spread     Money        Total
Eagles       -3.5 (-110)      -198   O 44.5  (-110)
Giants       +3.5 (-110)      +170   U  44.5 (-110)

Eagles Super Bowl Odds

The NFC East has been the laughing stock of the NFL this season, but if you think the Eagles (or Cowboys) will get the last laugh by surprising everybody with a Cinderella championship run, now might be the time to lock in your bets.  Here are both teams’ current Super Bowl odds:

  • Eagles: +3000
  • Cowboys: +6000

Win Probability

Note: Calculations reflect Sunday morning market prices.

According to FiveThirtyEight’s ELO point spread projection, the shrinking point spread is creating some betting value on the Eagles.

ELO projects the Eagles as a six-point favorite and calculates a 70% win probability for the road team. With Philadelphia currently only a 3.5-point favorite, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 2.5 points of value on the Eagles. 

Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -195 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 66.1%, which means the moneyline is cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-233 would be in line with a 70% win probability). Of course, these numbers illustrate the extreme value of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook Eagles +300 moneyline odds offer (get it right here).

As for the Giants, the implied win probability of their +165 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 37.7%, meaning there is no value whatsoever on the underdog in relation to ELO probability.

Eagles vs. Giants Injury Report

Eagles Injury Report

Another week, more of the same on the injury front for the Eagles.

Zach Ertz, who leads the team with 88 catches and 916 yards, is out after suffering a rib/back injury in the first half of the Eagles’ win over the Cowboys last week. Obviously, Ertz’s absence is a huge blow to an offense that has somehow thrived in recent weeks despite a slew of injuries to key players. To that end, wide receiver Nelson Agholor is out, while right tackle Lane Johnson is questionable.

Running back Jordan Howard, who has been out since early November, will return this week and is expected to play sparingly.

Defensively, cornerback Ronald Darby is done for the season and Jalen Mills (ankle) is questionable. Rasul Douglas will take take Darby’s place. If Mills can’t go, expect to see Sidney Jones in his place.

Giants Injury Report

Right tackle Mike Remmers is out, so Brandon Graham should have an opportunity to be a disruptive force in this game going up against Nick Gates, a second-year guy with one start at right tackle this season. Tight ends Rhett Ellison and Scott Simonson are also both out.

Defensively, linebacker Alec Ogletree and corners Sam Beal and Corey Ballentine are questionable.

Eagles vs. Giants Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.

Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet

Finishing Strong

The Eagles have finished strong under Doug Pederson. They are 9-2 SU and 8-3 ATS in Weeks 15, 16, and 17 under him.

Momentum Favors the Road Team

When a team is favored by at least four points in a division road game played in December or later and both teams are coming off a win, the road favorite is 17-8-2 ATS. Those teams are also 22-5 straight up.

Home underdogs with a .300 record or worse that are on a two-game winning streak are only 1-4 ATS in games played in December or January. They’re only 12-19-2 ATS overall when coming off a win, 3-12-2 ATS when a dog of 4-7 points following a win, and 2-9-1 ATS when a dog of 4-6 points when following a win.

Home dogs with a .300 record or worse playing a team with a .500-.550 record in December or later are only 9-21-2 ATS.

Mailing It In

Teams with four wins or less entering Week 17 are 34-42-3 ATS. They are 29-38-2 as an underdog, but they are 13-11-1 ATS as a home underdog. Finally, four-win teams playing an eight-win team in week 17 are 0-4-1 ATS and 0-5 straight up.

Why Backing the Giants is a Good Bet

The Eagles are only 6-11 ATS as a road favorite following a win under Pederson.

Road favorites on a three-game winning streak are only 7-12-1 ATS in division games played in December or later.

Other Trends to Know

Maybe you’re less concerned about the point spread and more concerned about the outright winner. Here are some trends to know:

  • Since the 2017 season, the Eagles are 13-5 overall in games played in December or later. They’re 8-2 as a favorite.
  • The Eagles are 14-2 (six straight wins) as a favorite against NFC East teams. They’re 6-1 on the road under Pederson as a road favorite against division teams.
  • The Eagles are 6-1 against the Giants under Pederson.
  • Division road favorites of 4 or 4.5 points are 15-6 in December and January. They’re 6-0 when the opposing team is coming off a win.

A Word on the Total

There are some strongly conflicting trends at play that apply to this game. League-wide, the under in late-season division games is always an excellent play. I used that principle last week in taking the under between the Eagles and Cowboys. Consider this:

  • The under is 93-73-1 with a closing total between 44.5-46 in December or January, and it’s 45-30 in division games. In division contests, the under is also 37-25 when the total closes between 44.5-45.5 points, and it’s 24-14 in Weeks 15-17.

However, the over has been a great play when the Eagles are on the road:

  • The over is 22-9 in all road games coached by Doug Pederson, including 8-2 in December.
  • The over is 7-4 in division road games under Pederson.
  • The over is 15-3 in Eagles road games under Pederson following a game in which they went under the total, including 5-1 in December.

Taking all of this into consideration, my lean is on the under, but I don’t like it enough to play it.

Where’s the Action?

As of Sunday morning, 55% of spread bets and 55% of the spread handle backs Philadelphia. As for the total,  58% of bets and 54% of the money sides with the over.

Bets We Like

Dallas Goedert 75+ Receiving Yards and Eagles Win (+250 at FOX Bet)

Get it here.

The tight end duo of Zach Ertz and Dallas Goedert has shouldered much of the load for the Eagles’ passing offense in recent weeks. With Ertz and his 88 receptions out of today’s game, that should leave more targets for Goedert, who has 17 catches for 187 yards over his last three games. Not only is Goedert the logical choice to receive an increase in targets against an absolutely miserable New York pass defense, this prop also comes with the added bonus of removing the point spread from the equation.

Daniel Jones to Throw 3+ Touchdowns (+360 at DraftKings Sportsbook)

There seems to be a sense among many that the Giants are going to make things uncomfortable for the Eagles this afternoon. If that is to be the case, then Jones throwing for at least three touchdowns against a suspect Eagles secondary presents some value at a boosted +360 payout. Jones is coming off his best game as a pro in which he completed 66% of his passes for 352 yards and five touchdowns against the Redskins last Sunday.

The Eagles, meanwhile, bottled up Dallas’ formidable passing attack a week ago, but they benefited from numerous drops and poor Dak Prescott throws. Two weeks ago, the Eagles defense proved it’s more than capable of letting an inexperienced rookie quarterback make plays when Dwayne Haskins threw for 261 yards and two touchdowns. I don’t love this play, but if you’re into an Eagles nightmare scenario unfolding later today, then this one is worth a look.

Eagles vs. Giants Prediction

Last week, I had a strong sense that the Eagles would use a ball control attack to slow down the game and limit the Cowboys’ offensive opportunities. I also figured the Eagles defense, which plays well at home, would feed off the crowd energy and take advantage of a vastly overrated Cowboys team.

This week, if I’m being totally honest, I don’t have that same sense of conviction. The Eagles should win the battle up front on both sides of the football, ultimately negating their injuries at the offensive skill positions and at cornerback. Moreover, the Eagles have been outstanding as a division favorite under Pederson and should be supremely motivated to play in this spot. The fact that the Eagles lost to a wretched Dolphins team on the road earlier this month and needed overtime to outlast the Giants in the first meeting should serve as a reminder that they can ill afford to take this game lightly.

That being said, the market has pushed this spread down, and it’s not all that hard to envision a healthy Saquon Barkley keeping the Eagles honest enough for Daniel Jones to make some big plays against a defense that has yielded an average of 29 points in seven road games this season. In fact, the Eagles have surrendered at least 27 points in five of those seven games. Do the Eagles have enough firepower, even against a Giants squad that is incentivized to lose, to cover a four-point spread? I’d like to say they do, but I’m not willing to bet on it.

I’ll take the Eagles to win but to do so in uncomfortable fashion.

Note: Of course, if you like the Eagles to win and want to maximize your potential profit, you can do it by grabbing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Eagles +300 odds boost right here.

ATS Prediction: Giants (+4) over the Eagles

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