Tonight’s Monday Night Football matchup is one that only a sports bettor could love, so let’s break it down with our Eagles vs. Giants betting prediction and picks.
Eli Manning will make his first start since September when the free-falling Giants visit Lincoln Financial Field to face a scuffling Eagles squad that was utterly embarrassed last week in Miami. It’s appropriate that this is the season of giving as the Eagles have been gifted the present of a historically bad NFC East. Despite sporting an underwhelming 5-7 record thanks to a three-game losing streak, the Eagles, somehow, still control their own postseason destiny and can take the first step toward the NFC East crown with a win over the lowly Giants.
While trusting the Eagles to beat any team feels like a dicey proposition right now, it’s worth considering the following points:
- The Eagles have won their last five games over the Giants.
- Losers of eight in a row, the Giants are arguably the worst team in football.
- The Giants have lost six games this season by at least 14 points.
- Manning, who is seemingly finished, hasn’t played in 85 days.
- The Eagles have everything to play for, while the Giants are playing for absolutely nothing.
Surely, the Eagles should get it done tonight. Unless, of course, zombie Eli Manning rises to feast on the Eagles and kill their season. That seems unlikely, but those that have watched the Eagles this season know that anything is possible after losses to the 4-9 Falcons, 3-9-1 Lions, and 3-10 Dolphins.
How to Bet on Eagles Vs. Giants
This one is real simple: DraftKings Sportsbook PA is offering new users insane +300 moneyline odds on the heavily favored Eagles to win outright– exclusively through Crossing Broad. Grab it right here.
DraftKings, FanDuel Sportsbook, and FOX Bet are great options in New Jersey, but we also strongly recommend PointsBet for its excellent new user offer. PointsBet gives bettors a free $100 with a $50 deposit at sign up. PointsBet is also offering a bonus $6 tonight for every touchdown your team scores when you place a pregame $50 spread bet.
Eagles vs. Giants Odds
Here are the current Eagles vs. Giants betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of early Monday morning:
|Giants||+9 (-112)||+300||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-9 (-109)||-360||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Giants||+8.5 (-110)||+320||O 44.5 (-105)|
|Eagles||-8.5 (-110)||-400||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Giants||+8.5 (-110)||+330||O 44.5 (-115)|
|Eagles||-8.5 (-110)||-400||U 44.5 (-105)|
ELO projects the struggling Eagles as a 10-point favorite and calculates an 80% win probability for the home team. With Philadelphia currently favored somewhere between 8.5 and 9 points at the legal books, the ELO projection suggests there is roughly one point of betting value on the Eagles.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -360 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 78.3%, which means the it is just a bit cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-400 would be in line with an 80% win probability). Of course, that’s what makes the value of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook Eagles +300 moneyline odds so strong (get it here).
As for the Giants, the implied win probability of their +300 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 25%, meaning there exists no value in relation to the ELO probability on a New York moneyline play.
Eagles vs. Giants Injury Report
Eagles Injury Report
As has been the case for most of this season, the injury news for the Eagles is less than ideal. Here’s their final injury report:
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 7, 2019
Linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill finished last week’s game passing initial tests for a concussion, but his symptoms flared up a few days ago, so he remains in protocol and is out this week. Nate Gerry will see more snaps in his place.
Defensive end Derek Barnett (ankle) is questionable after failing to practice this week. If Barnett can’t go, expect to see more of Genard Avery and Josh Sweat. Avery was acquired for a fourth-round draft pick prior to the trade deadline and has played sparingly–very sparingly–since arriving in Philadelphia.
Offensively, it would be a surprise if running back Jordan Howard, who is apparently still suffering from the world’s most devastating stinger, suits up. He still hasn’t been cleared for contact since suffering the injury against the Bears five weeks ago. Given the anticipated poor weather conditions–and poor New York defense–Howard’s absence figures to be a factor.
Giants Injury Report
Rookie quarterback Daniel Jones (ankle) is out, but the Giants’ injury woes don’t stop there:
TE Evan Engram (foot), CB Corey Ballentine (concussion), TE Rhett Ellison (concussion) have also been ruled out.
— Dan Salomone (@NYGsalomone) December 7, 2019
There was some hope earlier in the week that Evan Engram, who has 44 catches for 467 yards and three touchdowns, would play, but he has been ruled out.
Defensively, starting safety Jabrill Peppers (back) will miss this one, which is obviously bad news for an already atrocious pass defense that’s allowing an NFC-worst 8.0 passing yards per attempt.
Eagles vs. Giants Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet
Big Favorites For a Reason?
Only 12 teams have lost three or more games in a row and have been favored by at least eight points in December or later. Those teams are only 4-8 ATS and 6-6 straight up.
The Game Total
Keep an eye on the total. After sitting at as high as 46 earlier in the week, it has been bet down to 44.5 points:
- The under is 49-29 in division games played during the month of December or later when the spread is set between 45.5-47 points. It’s 35-57 when the total is 45.5-47.5, including 1-9 in primetime.
- The under is 21-9 at Lincoln Financial Field in regular season games coached by Doug Pederson, but it’s only 5-6 in division games.
Where’s the Action?
As of early Monday morning, 45% of spread bets and 66% of the spread handle backs the Eagles. As for the total, 54% of bets and 64% of the money sides with the under.
Bets We Like
Carson Wentz 200+ pass yards, Alshon Jeffery 1+ TD, Eagles to win (+175 at FOX Bet) Sign up here.
This is Charissa Thompson’s Custom Bet Boost over at FOX BET and we like it. According to Football Outsiders DVOA metric, the Giants come in with one of the league’s worst rated pass defenses, while several traditional measures support this claim. The Giants are in the bottom third of the NFL in opponent completion percentage, yards per attempt, and passer rating, among other categories.
Though the weather conditions will be far from optimal this evening, Wentz should be able to eclipse 200 yards against an atrocious New York pass defense that has allowed at least 200 total yards in 10 of 12 games this season. Safety Jabrill Peppers’ absence doesn’t figure to help matters. Wentz has thrown for at least 200 yards in 8 of his 12 starts this season, including in four straight contests, while Jeffery returned from a nearly month-long absence last week with a bang by hauling in nine passes for 137 yards and a score.
As for the Eagles to win, well, I mean–they are more than a touchdown favorite at home with major playoff implications riding on this contest. Plus, they’re due–right?
Eagles -2.5, Wentz 250+ pass yards, Zach Ertz 50+ yards, Eagles 3+ TD (+450 at FOX Bet).
While a long shot, there are some favorable conditions that put this prop in play. Bettors grab 6 to 6.5 points of spread value with the Eagles at -2.5, while what we wrote about Wentz’s matchup against the Giants pass defense also applies here.
Ertz is coming off of a terrible performance last week in which his miscues helped sink the Eagles, but he has hauled in 70 passes for 736 yards this season and gets a favorable matchup against the Giants, particularly in the wake of Peppers’ absence. Prior to catching only three of six targets for 24 yards against the Dolphins last week, Ertz had no less than 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 91 yards in any of his previous three contests.
Zach Ertz to Score a Touchdown and Eagles to Win (Boosted to +170 at DraftKings Sportsbook). Get it here.
Again, bettors get the benefit of an odds boost and big value because of the eliminated point spread. In addition to Ertz’s recent uptick in production, potentially wet weather conditions may force the Eagles to use a more conservative approach in the passing game, making it more likely that he sees increased targets. Ertz has scored two of his three touchdowns this season over his last four games.
Miles Sanders to Score a Touchdown and Eagles to Win (-139 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
Sanders totaled a career-best 83 rushing yards (105 total yards from scrimmage) and scored his third touchdown of the season last week. Much has been made leading up to this game about Doug Pederson getting away from the run during the second half against the Dolphins, but Sanders’ workload has steadily climbed in recent weeks. He has totaled 37 touches over his last two games (29 carries, 8 catches) for a total of 191 yards from scrimmage. Jordan Howard is once again expected to sit out and though it’s possible that backup running backs Jay Ajayi or Boston Scott could steal a goal line carry or two, it’s unlikely. Sanders is -177 at DraftKings to score independent of the game’s outcome, which is simply too steep of a price, so this creates a more manageable risk. If you’re feeling frisky, you can grab him to score the game’s first touchdown and the Eagles to win at +500 odds.
Eagles vs. Giants Prediction
Since the Cowboys seem to insist that the Eagles win the NFC East, the Birds will get yet another crack at taking advantage of a terrible opponent this week after failing to do so in Miami. Though I’m wary of taking the Eagles against any team at any number right now, particularly in this zombie Eli Manning scenario, the Giants look like a team that has packed it in.
One of these NFC East “contenders” has to–I think–finally have a breakout performance at some point, so I’m taking the Eagles.
Of course, if you like the Eagles to win and want to wipe away the big point spread and poor moneyline odds, you can do so by grabbing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Eagles +300 odds boost right here.
Prediction: Eagles -9