The Eagles will look to move one step closer to an NFC East title this afternoon at FedEx Field when they take on the Redskins. Looking to sweep the season series between the two teams, the Eagles will once again be without several key starters and must get it done on the road with a very different cast of characters than the one that opened the season with a win over Washington back in September. In fact, 20 of the 28 passes completed by Carson Wentz in the Eagles’ Week 1 win were caught by five different players who won’t suit up today. Just crazy. Can the Eagles get it done and do enough to cover the spread in the process? Let’s get into it with our Eagles vs. Redskins betting prediction and picks.
It took a furious fourth quarter comeback led by Wentz for the Eagles to escape a double-digit deficit in their overtime win against the lowly Giants last Monday night. While nobody would describe barely beating a 2-11 football team as impressive, the Eagles may have found something in that game in the form of backup running back Boston Scott.
The second-year pro had a breakout performance, totaling 128 yards from scrimmage and a score to help lift the Eagles off the mat. He figures to be a factor today with Jordan Howard (and several other key offensive players) sidelined once again. Perhaps the increased presence of Scott and some other fresh faces will help the Eagles avoid a lack of focus in an obvious look-ahead spot with what could essentially amount to an NFC East title game against Dallas looming next week.
How to Bet on Eagles Vs. Redskins
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Eagles vs. Redskins Odds
The Eagles were favored by as little as only four points earlier this week, but that number has surged to no less than six points at several sportsbooks this weekend. Here are the current Eagles vs. Redskins betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks as of early Sunday morning:
|Eagles||-6.5 (-110)||-315||O 38.5 (-110)|
|Redskins||+6.5 (-110)||+265||U 38.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||-6.5 (-110)||-300||O 38.5 (-110)|
|Redskins||+6.5 (-110)||+245||U 38.5 (-105)|
|Eagles||-6.5 (-105)||-270||O 38.5 (-110)|
|Redskins||+6.5 (-115)||+230||U 38.5 (-110)|
ELO projects the Eagles as a six-point favorite and calculates a 71% win probability for the road team. With Philadelphia currently favored by 6.5 points by the local market’s legal books, the ELO projection suggests there is now 1/2 point of value on the Redskins. If you grabbed the Birds earlier in the week when they were favored by 4 to 4.5 points, then you did well for yourself.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -315 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 75.9%, which means the moneyline is just a bit more expensive than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-245 would be in line with a 71% win probability). Of course, that’s what makes the value of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook Eagles +300 moneyline odds so strong (get it here ).
As for the Redskins, the implied win probability of their +265 moneyline odds at DraftKings is 27.4%, meaning there is some value on the underdog in relation to the ELO probability.
Eagles vs. Redskins Injury Report
Eagles Injury Report
The Eagles are dealing with several injuries. Surprise!
— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) December 13, 2019
Wide receiver Nelson Agholor, defensive end Derek Barnett, and running back Jordan Howard are each expected to miss the game, as is right tackle Lane Johnson.
For those of you keeping count at home, the Eagles offense is now without its top three wide receivers, top running back, and starting right tackle. Just amazing.
This is probably a good time to mention that the Eagles are only 3-10 in Wentz’s starts when Johnson doesn’t play.
On a positive note, the Eagles will get back linebacker Kamu Grugier-Hill, who missed last week’s game against the Giants with a concussion.
Redskins Injury Report
The Redskins come into this one with some injury issues of their own. Wide receiver Paul Richardson, who hasn’t played since Week 12, was placed on IR this weekend. Running back Derrius Guice, who had totaled 171 yards on only 15 carries this month, will also miss the remainder of the season.
The Redskins defense has some injury issues, too, as pass rushing special Ryan Kerrigan (calf) won’t play. He’s second on the Redskins with 5.5 sacks and had been heating up recently, totaling 3.5 sacks over the last four weeks.
Cornerbacks Josh Norman, Fabian Moreau, and Quinton Dunbar are all questionable, as is safety Montae Nicholson.
Eagles vs. Redskins Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet
The Eagles are under .500 and have failed to cover in four straight games. Yet, they are a fairly significant road favorite in a division contest, so that’s the angle I explored this week. Here’s what I found:
- Road favorites that have failed to cover in four straight games are 8-2 ATS in division games.
- When a road team has won two games or less over a five-game stretch and opens as a five-point favorite or less, such teams are 93-63-8 ATS and 40-27-2 ATS in December. Those teams are also 34-21-2 ATS in division games.
- Road favorites in division contests of four points or more that have covered less than 35 percent of its games are 13-5-2 ATS.
- All road favorites in division games that cover less than 35% of its games are 47-30-3 ATS and they are 8-4-2 ATS when favored between 4-6 points.
- Favorites that have failed to cover in four straight games are 36-24-2 ATS.
- Sub .500 favorites that have failed to cover in four straight games are 14-9-2 ATS.
That’s quite a bit of information supporting a play on the Eagles.
There’s not as much trend data supporting the Redskins, but:
Road favorites of 4+ points that are coming off of a win and are playing a division opponent off of a loss are 20-27-1 ATS in the month of December. They’re only 8-14 ATS when favored between 4 to 6.5 points.
Teams that have failed to cover in four straight games have only been a favorite of 4 to 6.5 points five times. Such teams are 1-4 ATS. They are 4-7 ATS when favored between 3 to 6.5 points.
The Game Total
I typically like the under in division contests, but it is worth noting that the over is 30-15-1 in division games played in December or later when the total closes between 38 and 39 points. That being said, 40-41 are key numbers as the under cashes just over 61 percent of the time when the total closes between 39.5 and 41 points.
Where’s the Action?
Even with the ballooning point spread, the action remains strongly on the Eagles.
As of early Sunday morning, 58% of spread bets and 67% of the spread handle back the Eagles. As for the total, only 47% of bets but 66% of the money sides with the under.
Bets We Like
Before we get to some props, FOX Bet is offering up some stellar Eagles-centric promos today that you can grab by signing up here .
Super 6 Bet Boost
If you’re looking to score a big payout and like some favorites to win outright today, then you can grab the Packers, Texans, Seahawks, Buccaneers, Eagles, and Rams all to win (boosted from +1600 to +2000 odds).
Eagles Lock It In Boost
This is one is interesting. You can take the Eagles to win and Carson Wentz to throw for over 300 yards (boosted from +200 to +450 odds).
Wentz has surpassed the 300-yard mark only four times this season, but two of those games have come in the past two weeks and he also threw for 313 yards against the Redskins back in Week 1.
For what it’s worth, Washington will be without pass rushing specialist Ryan Kerrigan and four members of its secondary are listed as questionable on the final injury report.
The Redskins, however, are only allowing 225 passing yards per game, and, obviously, the Eagles have significant injury issues of their own. I’d tread lightly with this one, but at +450 odds it may be worth a very light wager.
Zach Ertz to go OVER 65.5 receiving yards (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook). Get it here .
Now on to two props that I’m playing this afternoon.
Ertz is hot right now, and he just so happens to be the Eagles’ only reliable pass catching option. Ertz has scored four of his five touchdowns this season over his last five games. Following a clunker in Miami two weeks ago, he rebounded by catching 9 of 13 targets for 91 yards and two scores against the Giants on Monday night. Ertz has had no less than 11 targets, 9 receptions, and 91 yards in four of his last five contests.
Surely, the Washington defense will concentrate on limiting him, but this feels like a very obtainable number.
Miles Sanders to Score a Touchdown and Eagles to Win (+150 at DraftKings Sportsbook).
I was on this play last week and it’s the one prop I suggested that didn’t cash. I’m back on it again this week.
Let’s start with this–the Eagles should win this game. They have everything to play for, a flicker of momentum, and they are playing what is a bad football team that is also injured in some key spots. The Eagles’ faults have been on display all season, but there is absolutely no reason they shouldn’t take care of business today.
As for Sanders, he was fairly quiet against the Giants a week ago, totaling only 69 yards despite 19 touches, but the volume continues to be there for the rookie. He rushed for a career-best 83 yards (posting 105 total yards from scrimmage) and scored his third touchdown of the season two weeks ago in Miami.
Over the last three weeks, Sanders has tallied 56 touches for 260 yards from scrimmage. He had a touchdown called back in Week 1 against Washington, and I think he gets even this week. The presence of Boston Scott creates some risk, but Sanders remains the Eagles’ best skill player after Zach Ertz and he’s touching the football nearly 20 times per game over the past three weeks.
Eagles vs. Redskins Prediction
The Eagles have failed to cover in four straight games, sinking their ATS record to a miserable 4-9 this season and backing them on the road in light of their significant injury concerns isn’t exactly a palatable proposition—particularly against a Redskins team that has shown some fight in recent weeks.
That being said, I think Wentz uses the momentum of his fourth quarter heroics last week and carries the Eagles to a win and cover. I grabbed this at -4 earlier in the week, and I admittedly like the Eagles far less at -6.5, so at the very least, I would advise waiting until kickoff to see if the number comes back down to -6 before playing it.
Of course, if you like the Eagles to win and want to wipe away the big point spread and poor moneyline odds, you can do so by grabbing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Eagles +300 odds boost right here.
Prediction: Eagles -6.5 over Redskins