NFL Wild Card Weekend concludes later this afternoon, so let’s look at some betting odds and ATS trends with our Eagles vs. Seahawks betting prediction and picks.
For most of the week, it appeared the Eagles would be an underdog for the sixth time in as many postseason games under Doug Pederson, but late line movement has made the Eagles a small favorite at some sportsbooks as kickoff nears. As of early Sunday morning, the Eagles range anywhere from a one-point underdog to a one-point favorite across the local legal betting market.
If the Eagles do close as an underdog, history suggests that is a good omen. Philadelphia is 4-1 straight up and 5-0 against the spread under Pederson as a playoff underdog–a role his team has fed off of in recent seasons.
Can the Eagles advance to the NFC’s Divisional Playoffs for the third straight year, or will Russell Wilson help Seattle snap a three-game postseason road losing streak? Let’s get into it.
How to Bet on Eagles vs. Seahawks
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Eagles vs. Seahawks Odds
As noted above, Seattle spent much of the week as a short favorite in this matchup, but they are now a pick ’em as of Sunday morning at DraftKings. Here are the Eagles vs. Seahawks betting odds at some of the top legal online sportsbooks:
|Seahawks||pk (-110)||-107||O 45 (-110)|
|Eagles||pk (-110)||-107||U 45 (-110)|
|Seahawks||-0.5 (-110)||-110||O 44.5 (-110)|
|Eagles||+0.5 (-110)||-110||U 44.5 (-110)|
|Seahawks||+1 (-110)||-108||O 45 (-105)|
|Eagles||-1 (-110)||-108||U 45 (-115)|
Eagles Super Bowl Odds
Of the 10 remaining postseason teams, the Eagles (+3400) have the ninth-best Super Bowl odds, ahead of only the Vikings (+4000). Meanwhile, the Seahawks (+2500) check with the sixth-best odds, which means there is a ton of value on the Eagles. The Birds are getting the far superior payout over the Seahawks despite being favored to win at some books.
Note: Calculations reflect Sunday morning market prices.
ELO not only projects the Eagles as the favorite but a 5.5-point favorite and calculates a 69% win probability for the home team. With the market essentially setting this game as a pick ’em–give or a take a point either way– the ELO projection suggests there is roughly 5.5 points of value on the Eagles.
Meanwhile, the implied win probability of the -107 moneyline price on the Eagles at DraftKings is 51.7%, which means the moneyline price is significantly cheaper than what the ELO projection suggests to be appropriate (-223 would be in line with a 69% win probability). Given this information, their projection illustrates the extreme value of our exclusive DraftKings Sportsbook Eagles +300 moneyline odds (get it right here).
As for the Seahawks, the implied win probability of their -107 moneyline odds at DraftKings is also 51.7%, meaning there is no value on the road team in relation to the ELO projection.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Injury Report
Eagles Injury Report
The big news here is that Eagles tight end Zach Ertz has been reportedly cleared by doctors and will play.
Per sources: Lane Johnson is out for tomorrow … if eagles get by Seattle … it’s believed he will be ready for the next opponent….
— Derrick Gunn (@RealDGunnNBCS) January 4, 2020
Ertz, who missed the Eagles’ division-clinching win over the Giants a week ago, hauled in 88 regular season passes for 916 yards and six touchdowns.
The Eagles also appear likely to have the services of emerging star running back Miles Sanders. The rookie left last week’s game in New York with an ankle sprain.
The outlook for right tackle Lane Johnson isn’t as optimistic–he will reportedly miss yet another game, meaning that the Eagles will be missing both Johnson and starting right guard Brandon Brooks, who is out for the season.
Seahawks Injury Report
Seattle is also dealing with significant injury issues as they will play this game without their top three running backs (Rashaad Penny, Chris Carson, and C.J. Prosise) and potentially their three best offensive linemen. Left tackle Duane Brown is out, center Justin Britt is out for the season, and left guard Mike Iupati is questionable, so Philadelphia’s defensive line should be able to consistently win up front.
Defensively, linebacker Mychal Kendricks tore his ACL last week against the 49ers and will miss the remainder of the season–that’s a big a blow to an already mediocre defense.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Betting Trends
Note: All trends date back to the 2003 season unless otherwise noted.
Why Backing the Eagles is a Good Bet
Small Home Underdogs Have Been Successful
Home underdogs of three points or less are 7-3 straight up since the 2016 postseason.
The Eagles are 4-1 SU and 5-0 ATS as a postseason underdog under Doug Pederson.
The Seahawks Aren’t As Good as Their Record Suggests
I know. You are what your record says you are, but it‘s worth noting that several measures suggest Seattle is not nearly as good as its 11-5 record. With a +7 point-differential and a negative yard-differential, the Seahawks are playing more like an eight or nine win team. That’s interesting as teams with a pythagorean expectation of 50-53 percent are only 3-10 ATS in the postseason. Seattle enters at 51 percent.
The Eagles, meanwhile, sport a +31 point-differential and outgained opponents by nearly 28 yards per game this season.
Week 17 Matters?
Road teams that lose their final regular season game are 6-13-1 ATS on Wild Card Weekend, including 0-3 ATS as a favorite.
Small Favorites Dominate Early in the Playoffs
Underdogs of 2.5 points or less are 17-5-2 ATS in the first two rounds of the playoffs, including 12-3-2 ATS in the wild card round.
Why Backing the Seahawks is a Good Bet
Russell Wilson Has Been Money as a Postseason Favorite
Wilson is a perfect 7-0 as a postseason favorite, but he’s only 2-4 on the road.
Playoff teams with quarterbacks making their first postseason starts against quarterbacks with playoff experience are 10-16 since the 2010 season.
Does Momentum Matter?
Teams that enter the playoffs on a four-game winning streak (Eagles) are only 6-9 ATS, including 2-7 ATS at home.
A Word on the Total
Including last night’s under between the Titans and Patriots, plays on the under are 35-13 in outdoor wild card games.
The under is also 24-10 in games coached by Pederson at Lincoln Financial Field. In fact, Pederson has been the most profitable home coach on under plays over the past 17 seasons.
Finally, the under is 15-9 in non-Super Bowl postseason games when the total closes between 44-45.5 points and 8-2 in the opening round.
While I expect more than the 26 points these two teams combined for back in November, the historical trends strongly point to a finish under the total.
Prop Bets We Like
Russell Wilson Over 23 pass completions (+100 at FOX Bet)
Get it here .
Wilson completed 23+ passes only six times this season, including just once over his six final regular season games. But against an Eagles defense that excels against the run and figures to dominate an injury-depleted offensive line, I expect Seattle to rely heavily upon a higher volume passing game that attacks the Eagles’ vulnerability in that area.
Carson Wentz Over 14.5 Rushing Yards (-112 at DraftKings Sportsbook)
Wentz has nine carries over the last two weeks and eclipsed 14.5 rushing yards in both games. While he went over this number in only 8 of 16 regular season games, I expect Wentz to play with a continued sense of desperation and aggressiveness once again this week. With the focus on Wilson’s scrambling ability, I’ll take Wentz to make a few plays with his legs and get over the total.
Where’s the Action?
As of Sunday morning, 78% of spread bets and 69% of the spread handle backs Seattle. As for the total, 42% of bets and 38% of the money sides with the over.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Prediction
Credit goes to Russell Wilson, Pete Carroll and the rest of the Seahawks for finding ways to win close games late, but this is a mediocre team propped up by an outstanding quarterback. The injuries to Seattle’s backfield are real and substantial, and while the story of Marshawn Lynch’s return makes for a good narrative, an Eagles defense that is allowing only 90.1 yards per game (3rd best in the NFL) should be able to keep the duo of Lynch and Travis Homer in check.
On the other side of the football, the Eagles should be able to exploit a below average Seattle defense that ranks 26 in yards allowed per game (381.6).
Not only are the Eagles at home and have momentum, history also suggests that small underdogs are extremely active in the early rounds of the postseason. I expect that trend to hold up here. I also love that the public is all over Seattle.
Note: If you like the Eagles to win and want to maximize your potential payout, you can do it by grabbing DraftKings Sportsbook’s Eagles +300 odds boost right here.
ATS pick: I’m going with the Eagles (+1) over the Seahawks.