Before we get to today’s Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview, I’m going to do you a favor and draw your attention to an offer that Phillies fans (and bettors) everywhere need to know about.
FanDuel Sportsbook has a promo called Seventh Inning Stretch Insurance. The idea behind this promo is that if you place a moneyline bet on a team and it has the lead at the seventh inning stretch but goes on to lose, you get your money back.
Do you know of any teams that get decent starting pitching, have a solid lineup, and also have a bullpen that is likely to blow any lead it is handed?
Yes, you do. You sure do.
— YES Network (@YESNetwork) August 6, 2020
In two innings of work during yesterday’s doubleheader, the Phillies’ bullpen surrendered six earned runs. By the time Tommy Hunter left the mound last night, 11 of the 14 Yankees who had faced Phils relievers had reached base.
But wait, there’s more!
In just six games this season, the first relievers Joe Girardi has summoned from his bullpen have recorded 10 outs. They have allowed 14 earned runs. So, yeah, FanDuel Sportsbook. Seventh Inning Stretch Insurance. My gift to you.
Now, let’s get to the Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview and take a look at the odds, picks, and predictions.
Phillies Vs. Yankees Odds
Given the Phillies’ sluggish start and disastrous bullpen, it’s little wonder why they are an underdog tonight against the 9-2 Yankees. Here’s a look at the odds, courtesy of FOX Bet:
|Yankees||-1.5 (+100)||-154||O9.5 -125|
|Phillies||+1.5 (-118)||+130||U 9.5 +105|
By the way, FOX Bet also has 76-1 odds on any Sixers game this month. Might be worth checking out.
Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Promos
As usual, new players at DraftKings Sportsbook are poised to take advantage of $1,000 in free bets.
There’s an awesome promo for this game tonight, which is DraftKings’ MLB Game of the Week. Make a $50 pregame moneyline wager on either team. For every run that team scores, you will get $10 toward a free bet. For example, if you take the Phillies and they score seven runs, you get a $70 free bet. Take advantage of this offer here.
Meanwhile, DraftKings also offers its MLB Live Bet Boost that adds a 10% profit boost to a live baseball wager. Once the game begins, place a live wager on any in-game market and grab an extra 10% profit boost.
Get it right here.
DraftKings Sportsbook also has a pair of Yankees-Phillies boosts today:
- Gleyber Torres to record over 1.5 hits and yankees to win (boosted to +250)
- White Sox, Cubs, and Phillies all to win (boosted to +615)
Phillies vs. Yankees Betting Preview
With the Phillies vs. Yankees odds and promos out of the way, it’s time to get into the Phillies vs. Yankees betting preview.
It’s Not Just the Bullpen
The Phillies’ biggest issue through six games is, by far, the bullpen, but that’s not their only issue. Andrew McCutchen, Rhys Hoskins, and Scott Kingery have gotten off to woeful starts, while Jean Segura is also scuffling. There’s simply too much inconsistency from a lineup that should be better than its production to this point.
Phillies manager Joe Girardi has pointed out that the Phillies haven’t had the benefit of consistent work, but this is a betting preview, so we’re not going to focus on whether that’s fair or what can be done to fix it. That’s for another story.
Instead, let’s look at what it means for tonight’s game.
The Pitching Matchup
The 2019 Phillies were an inconsistent team. The 2020 Phillies look very similar. Speaking of inconsistent, Zach Eflin will make his first start of the season this evening.
Eflin was slowed in summer camp by back issues, but is now healthy and ready to go. The question is–how long will he go?
Girardi has been conservative with his starting pitchers, and he will be once again tonight. Even if Eflin gives the Phillies a quality five or six innings, Girardi will still need at least three innings out of a bullpen that has no answers right now.
For this reason alone, I’m skeptical of the Phillies’ ability to earn a series split.
At the same time, they will be rocking the powder blue jerseys, so…look good, play good? Maybe?
— Philadelphia Phillies (@Phillies) June 27, 2019
It was an up-and-down ride for Eflin in 2019. Check this out:
- May: 5 games, 2.64 ERA, 1.17 WHIP
- July: 5 games, 11.88 ERA, 2.28 WHIP
- Sept/Oct: 6 games, 2.80 ERA, 1.22 WHIP
Much was made about Eflin’s philosophical differences with the previous coaching staff. Eflin was encouraged to pitch up in the zone with more frequency, and, in turn, his strikeout numbers went up. However, Eflin was often battered when he missed, and, more importantly, he simply didn’t believe in what he was being asked to do.
That’s fine, but this is an important year for the 26-year-old to demonstrate he’s more the guy you saw at the end of last season and less of what he’s been for most of his carer — inconsistent.
Going for the Yankees will be Jordan Montgomery. He was sharp against the Red Sox in his lone outing this season, lasting 5.2 innings, while allowing just one earned run.
After a promising rookie campaign back in 2017, Montgomery has dealt with numerous injury issues, pitching a total of just 37 innings since the start of the 2018 season.
Phillies vs. Yankees Prediction
How do you bet on the Phillies tonight? Even if they can go toe-to-toe with the Yankees for five or six innings (something they’ve done for at least six innings in all three games of this series), then what happens?
Girardi is reluctant to use guys on back-to-back nights, so you can likely take Adam Morgan out of the mix. Maybe he goes to Neris, if needed, given he threw just a single pitch to close out Wednesday’s game one. I just can’t bet on the Phillies without a significant payout against a quality opponent until the bullpen stabilizes.
However, I’m not interested in paying -154 on the Yankees tonight, so let’s look at some alternative plays.
Phillies vs. Yankees Predictions
Scott Kingery to homer/Phillies to win at FanDuel Sportsbook (+900)
Note: Story is posted prior to lineup release. Don’t lock in player/outcome wagers until lineups are official.
Kingery has gotten off to a miserable start this season, but if the Phillies are going to win tonight, they’ll need someone like Kingery to step up–and he’s due. Unsurprisingly, Kingery has homered with more frequency against lefties throughout his career. If you want to bet the Phillies tonight, this is an intriguing way to earn a far superior payout.
Zach Eflin Under 4.5 Strikeouts at FanDuel Sportsbook (+120)
Eflin isn’t a strikeout pitcher and with a renewed emphasis on getting back to utilizing his sinker at the bottom of the zone, I don’t foresee him striking out a batter per inning. Given that Girardi will likely be conservative with Eflin, I’ll try the under here–I don’t see him pitching past the sixth, at best. I’ll go under 4.5 strikeouts.
Game to be tied after three innings at DraftKings Sportsbook (+350)
Again, this is more of a lottery ticket play on a bigger payout. These two teams have been evenly matched in the early innings throughout this series, and if the pattern holds true once again tonight in a game where one team doesn’t sport a far superior starting pitcher, it’s worth a look. I’ll take the game to be tied after three innings.
Yankees -152 over the Phillies
Like I said above, I’m not into laying this much with the Yankees tonight, but with the DraftKings $10 bonus for every run scored when you make a $50 pregame bet, this is a deal I can’t pass up.