Eagles vs. 49ers Betting Preview: Don't Believe Your Eyes (October 4, 2020)

I bring to you, reader, a simple question at the jump of our Eagles vs. 49ers betting preview this week – how on earth does any person who has watched the Eagles play football this season back them against the 49ers on Sunday night?

Taste this recipe for success:

Start with a cross-country road trip to play the defending NFC champs. Add two healthy wide receivers practicing by the end of the week. Be sure to sprinkle a dash of quarterback who looks like a shell of his former self, before applying a glaze of defense that can’t generate a turnover. Yum.

That being said, you can bet on the Eagles at no-risk this week, which seems like the only smart way to bet on the Eagles right now. Get $1,000 in free bets and wager up to $50 risk-free on the Eagles to win at FOX Bet. Get it here in PA and here in NJ.

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Eagles vs. 49ers Betting Preview

If you have been burned by betting on the Eagles this season, who just so happen to be one of five teams yet to cover a spread this season, you’re most certainly not alone. And because you’re a glutton for punishment, you are perhaps running something like this through your head right now:

Hey self, is this the week that the Eagles finally cover? I mean, nobody expects them to cover. Honestly, there’s no way they will cover. Man, it would be so crazy if they cover, like that would be so Eagles, you know? They are due. You know what? Maybe they will cover. They’re covering.

You think like this because you are either 1) an idiot 2) a blind optimist or 3) a person that knows when it comes to betting on the NFL that pretty much anything is possible, even when the outcome seems improbable.

So, will the fading 0-2-1 Eagles cover on the road against a resilient 49ers team that is coming off of two blowout wins?

Let’s explore that question — one that feels like it has a pretty obvious answer — in our Eagles vs. 49ers betting preview with odds, picks, and predictions.

Eagles vs. 49ers Odds

No surprise here. The 49ers are a seven-point point favorite over the Eagles at DraftKings Sportsbook. The over/under is set at 46 points.

Earlier in the week, San Francisco was a six-point favorite, but the odds have since moved in its favor. There are a few likely reasons for this:

The 49ers’ injury situation has improved. Jimmy Garappolo and Raheem Mostert won’t play, but Deebo Samuel and George Kittle will suit up.
The Eagles’ injury situation has deteriorated. Dallas Goedert is out. DeSean Jackson is also out, as is J.J. Arcega-Whiteside ( I know, but he’s a body). Defensively, corners Avonte Maddox and Trevor Williams are both out.
Who, exactly, wants to bet on the Eagles right now? They’ve yet to cover the spread, and the 49ers just trashed two bad teams on the road. Why wouldn’t they do the same at home in this one?

Here is a look at the current Eagles vs. 49ers odds for Week 4:

DraftKings Sportsbook

	Spread	Money	Total
Eagles	+7 (-110)	+265	O 46 (-110)
49ers	-7 (-110)	-315	U 46 (-110)

FOX Bet

	Spread	Money	Total
Eagles	+7 (-110)	+250	O 46.5 (-110)
49ers	-7 (-110)	-300	U 46.5 (-110)

Eagles vs. 49ers Odds Analysis

Let’s take a look at how the current market odds stack up with FiveThirtyEight’s ELO forecast. The point of this exercise is to gauge how projection models stack up with the assessment of oddsmakers.

In this case, ELO projects the 49ers as a six-point favorite with a 70% chance to win the game. In relation to the current market odds, ELO suggest the Eagles have roughly one-point of spread value. Meanwhile, a 70% win probability equates to roughly a -233 moneyline price. GivenMean the current -315 49ers moneyline price, ELO suggests an inflated price on the home team. Conversely, the Eagles’ +265 moneyline price does prevent some slight value.

How to Bet on Eagles vs. 49ers

There’s plenty of excellent sportsbook promos available this week.

I mentioned this above, but the headline deal is no doubt at FOX Bet in both Pennsylvania and New Jersey. You can bet up to $50 on the Eagles to win outright this week. If they win, you win. If they lose, FOX Bet will refund the bet in site credit. Get this offer in PA right here and here in NJ.

DraftKings Sportsbook is rolling with its “Bet $1, Win $100” on any NFL team to win offer. You can grab $1,000 in free bets and this special odds offer right here.

Also, if you’re in NJ, you can grab a $250 first deposit match with PointsBet and bet on Carson Wentz to have more completions than Jimmy Butler points scored with this funny prop bet.

Where is the Money Going?

Let’s break down the Eagles-49ers betting splits, per DraftKings Sportsbook.

As of Friday afternoon, the Eagles are receiving 44% of spread bets and 45% of the money. I asked earlier about who the hell wants to bet on the Eagles right now? More people than I would have thought, it turns out.

In terms of the total, 76% of bets and 88% of the money is on the over.

I would expect the public bettor to begin hammering San Francisco as kickoff draws closer, so it’s entirely possible this spread moves to 49ers -7.5.

How to Watch Eagles vs. 49ers

Date: Sunday, October 4
Time: 8:20 p.m. EST
Location: Levi’s Stadium (Santa Clara, California)
Network: NBC
Announcers: Al Michaels (play-by-play), Cris Collinsworth (analyst), Michele Tafoya (sideline)
Radio: 94 WIP (Philadelphia), KNBR 680, KSAN 107.7 The Bone (San Francisco)

Game Preview

We can do the numbers thing here because it’s the right thing to do, but the analysis seems pretty simple.

The Eagles enter this game with an aging, declining, and injury-littered roster that has struggled to its worst start since 1999.

Meanwhile, the 49ers, despite their own rash of injuries, have been able to rebound with two convincing victories over the hapless Jets and Giants. Another difference is how these teams appear to be trending with said injuries. Backup quarterback Nick Mullens will be under center for the 49ers, but they will get back star tight end George Kittle and wide receiver Deebo Samuel. Of course, the Eagles, too, have big injury concerns:

#PHIvsSF Status Report pic.twitter.com/7gCKNMpEM1

— Philadelphia Eagles (@Eagles) October 2, 2020

Making matters worse for the Eagles is that quarterback Carson Wentz has been downright dreadful. Much of the last week in Philadelphia has been spent dissecting (bitching) about who’s most at fault for his poor play, but culpability isn’t the name of our game. What matters here is that his incredibly bad performance is the current reality, and it’s hard to see how things get better this week without Dallas Goedert and DeSean Jackson. The numbers have been ugly. Really ugly:

35.8 QBR
59.8 completion percentage
3 TD/6 INT
5.6 yards per attempt

For the Eagles to avoid a potential winless start at the quarter-pole they will need Wentz to play, by far, his best game of the season. They will also likely to need to rely more on running back Miles Sanders, who was slowed this week with a strained glute. Sanders is averaging 5.0 yards per carry, and it would seem the only thing that can slow him down is his pass-happy head coach’s play-calling. Doug Pederson went away from Sanders during the second-half a week ago, and he would be wise not to make the same mistake this week with his team’s hemorrhaging season on life support.

Eagles vs. 49ers Betting Trends

Note: All trends date back to the start of the 2003 season, unless otherwise indicated. The Eagles are a seven-point underdog at the time of this post.

Why Backing the Eagles Makes Sense

They’re Due

Underdogs that are 0-3 (or winless, so 0-2-1) are 35-25-2 ATS and road dogs are 19-11 ATS.

Road underdogs of at least six points that are 0-3 (or winless) are 14-6 ATS. When such teams have also failed to cover they are 7-3 ATS.

Road underdogs who have yet to cover are 25-15 ATS in October. When such teams are underdogs of at least seven points, they are 14-7 ATS.

Not at Home

The 49ers are 9-15-1 ATS at home and 3-9-1 ATS as a home favorite under Kyle Shanahan.

Why Backing the 49ers Makes Sense

Bad Dogs

The Eagles are just 3-6 ATS under Doug Pederson when a road underdog of at least 3.5 points.

Eagles vs. 49ers Prediction

Listen, betting on the Eagles right now takes some courage. This is a bad football team that, right now, appears poised to top out at 4-5 wins. Sure, that could change, but with injuries, bad quarterback play, and the league’s most difficult strength of schedule looming, it’s a bleak outlook. Still, seven is a lot of points and there are a few things to consider:

Nick Mullens, though productive, is a backup quarterback. If Carson Wentz can’t duel with Mullens to the point where the Eagles hang within a touchdown on Sunday night, things will be far worse come Monday morning than they seem right now.
Both winless teams and teams that haven’t covered through three weeks and/or in October have an excellent track record of covering.
The 49ers have serious injury concerns, too. Granted, they were impressive in blowout wins over the Giants and Jets, but I think the those wins are leading to a line that’s just a tad overinflated.

I wouldn’t exactly label this one my “game of the year,” but I’ll take the Eagles to cover.

Bets We Like

The 49ers to win by 1-13 points at FanDuel Sportsbook (get it here).

New players at DraftKings Sportsbook: Get the Eagles or 49ers (or any NFL team) to win in Week 4 at 100-1 odds (get it here).

The Eagles to win with a risk-free $50 bet at FOX Bet. Get it here in PA and here in NJ.

Eagles vs. 49ers Pick

Give me the Eagles +7 to cover the spread.