I’m not sure there is a more bland, more tedious watch in the NFL than the Eagles right now, but this week’s Monday Night Football matchup with the Seahawks is must-see television. And it’s not must-see because first-place is on the line. There are many juicy subplots–Carson Wentz/Jalen Hurts drama, potential for a nationally televised embarrassment, the possibility of D.K. Metcalf providing yet another refresher of Howie Roseman’s brutal draft history.
Of course, there’s also the betting element, which we will explore in this Eagles vs. Seahawks pick and score prediction.
This one just sort of has that feel to it, doesn’t it? The Eagles feel like a team on the brink of total collapse.
We have a mix of declining veterans and inadequate youthful reinforcements led by a slumping quarterback and exasperated head coach who is seemingly without answers going up against a team that has utterly dominated the head-to-head matchup in recent seasons. To their credit, the Eagles have thrived in the underdog/nobody-believes-in-us role under Doug Pederson, but it’s just hard to see a similar response this time around.
Can the Eagles somehow pick themselves up off the mat and reclaim the NFC East lead, or will the Seahawks do what almost everybody expects them to do tonight and roll? Let’s get into all of it with our Eagles vs. Seahawks picks and score prediction.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Week 11 Odds
Here are the current Eagles vs. Seahawks odds at some of the best PA online sportsbooks.
Best Eagles-Seahawks Odds by Sportsbook
|Seahawks||-6 (-107)||-275||49 (-110)|
|Eagles||+6 (-114)||+230||49 (-110)|
Eagles vs. Seahawks Line Analysis
Oddsmakers at top shops such as DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook clearly don’t think much of the Eagles ahead of this game. Despite its woeful pass defense and leaky pass protection, Seattle is laying 6.5 points on the road against a team the public typically likes to back. For any Eagles fan or bettor, this point spread is concerning and a total indictment of one of the league’s most disappointing teams.
Notably, the spread has climbed throughout the week. It sat around Seattle -5 at times last week and has since climbed as high as -6.5. Given the way the public has hammered Seattle throughout the week, I wouldn’t be surprised if late action pushes this number up to a full touchdown by kickoff.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Betting Preview
At first glance, it’s almost impossible to find a good reason to back the Eagles tonight. The Seahawks own the Eagles, it’s hard to imagine Jim Schwartz’s defense getting key stops against Russell Wilson, and the Eagles’ passing game, for several reasons, is an unmitigated disaster right now. This is an offense that failed to produce 20 points in recent games against the Cowboys, Giants, and Browns (defense scored against Dallas).
This offense certainly doesn’t pass the eye test, and the numbers are even more damning:
- Points per game: 22.0 (24th)
- Yards per pass attempt: 5.5 (t-30th)
- Sack percentage: 9.55% (32nd)
- Completion percentage: 58.58% (30th)
There’s more, but no need to pile on.
The Eagles’ 5.0 rushing yards per attempt is tied for the best mark in the NFL, which is great, but they only run the ball 24.1 times per game. Only five teams run the ball less frequently. Also of concern for this potential advantage is that Seattle can stop the run. It has held opponents to just 3.6 yards per attempt, the NFL’s third-best mark.
That means it will likely be up to the Eagles’ abysmal passing game to exploit a porous Seahawks’ pass defense. If Carson Wentz can finally get things clicking, the Eagles will have a chance to hang around. If he doesn’t, well, this one could get ugly fast.
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Eagles vs. Seahawks Betting Trends
Reasons to Play the Eagles
The Eagles have had recent success on Monday Night Football, going 9-2 over their last 11 appearances. They are also 5-1 on MNF under Pederson. That’s great and all, but when you consider that the Seahawks are 14-2 over their last 16 Monday night games (9-2 with Wilson at quarterback), it doesn’t seem quite so impressive.
Really, if you’re looking for a reason to take the points tonight, here’s why I would consider it.
- Teams covering less than 30 percent of its games playing against teams covering more than 50% of its games are 97–70-8 ATS overall in Week 10 or later. They are also 78-56-6 ATS as underdogs.
- Moreover, teams covering less than 30 percent of its games playing against teams covering more than 50% of its games in primetime contests are 14-9-1 ATS during Week 12 or later.
Basically, the idea here is that poor cover teams playing good cover teams tend to be solid bets later in the season because added value is given to the struggling team.
Reasons to Play the Seahawks
There are many reasons to bet on the Seahawks tonight. Among the best include:
- The Eagles don’t cover at home. They are 6-14 ATS over their last 20 games started by Wentz at Lincoln Financial Field.
- The Seahawks are 5-0 straight up and ATS against the Eagles in the teams’ last five meetings.
- Also of note, home underdogs of 6-7 points are just 12-23-1 ATS in primetime games and 10-21-1 after the month of September.
- Home underdogs of 6-7 points with a win percentage below 35% are just 7-15-1 ATS when playing teams with a win percentage above 70%.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Over/Under Trends
The total for this game was up to 52 at one point last week but has since dipped down. Concerns over weather are a factor, though a nasty rain system is expected to move mostly out of the area by kickoff.
The under has cashed in 6 of 10 Eagles games this season, while it has cashed in just 4 of 10 Seahawks games.
Some totals trends to know:
- The under is a whopping 10-1 over the Eagles’ last 11 November games.It is also 10-2 over the Eagles’ last 12 home games.
- The under has cashed in each of the last five meetings between these two teams, including both contests last season.
The Eagles have gone under the total in four straight games. When the home team goes under four straight games and the total is set at 47 points or more, the over is 9-6. That’s a good one to know if you’re into the “something has to give” theory.
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Eagles vs. Seahawks Prediction
I have to make a straight ATS pick in this game because that’s what the job requires, so let me walk you through my mindset here. The Eagles are one of the worst cover teams in the league this season, and, as noted above, their past inability to cover might actually help them in this spot.
However, they’ve been especially bad covering at home. The Seahawks own this matchup, the Eagles flat-out stink and appear ill-equipped to take advantage of Seattle’s weak pass defense. And, oh by the way, the Eagles also feel like a team on the brink of total collapse.
That being said, absolutely nobody wants to bet on the Eagles tonight. Like nobody. As of Monday morning, 95% of the handle and 91% of the money was on the Seahawks, so this game presents an opportunity to fade the public, which, typically, is a smart move.
Also of note, while Jim Schwartz’s defense is often infuriating:
- The Seahawks turn the football over.
- The Seahawks give up a ton of sacks.
- The Eagles held Seattle to exactly 17 points in both games last season.
In theory, if the Eagles have absolutely any pride whatsoever, they won’t go out and get smacked around at home on national television with (sigh) first-place on the line. But I can’t blame you for being skeptical. I certainly am.
Eagles vs. Seahawks Pick
The ATS pick here is Eagles +6.5, though there’s no way I trust this team enough to play it. If the Eagles have absolutely any fight tonight, it’s likely to show up early on, so I’ll grab them +0.5 in the first quarter and go from there.
Seahawks 26, Eagles 23