There won’t be any surprises for this week’s Eagles vs. Packers pick.

Last year, the Eagles went into Lambeau Field and stunned the Packers in a dramatic 34-27 early-season upset win. It was a game that showed both their toughness and ability to craft and execute a solid game plan. Fast forward 437 days and all of the redeeming qualities the Eagles demonstrated in that game are gone. This year, a sloppy, undisciplined and totally cooked Eagles team rolls into Green Bay to face what is arguably the NFC’s best team. Football is weird, and, you know, any given Sunday, but this one feels like it is over before it is even played.

Are things as bleak as it seems? Let’s break it all down in this betting guide with an Eagles vs. Packers pick and prediction.

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How to Bet Eagles vs. Packers

Betting on the Eagles right now to win outright or even cover a spread isn’t exactly a palatable proposition. Sure, they pulled off an epic garbage time backdoor cover against the Seahawks last week, but this is a team that could have easily lost by two touchdowns at home despite a solid effort from its defense. It was just the latest abysmal effort from a completely unimaginative offense, one that struggles to protect its quarterback, gain separation on the outside, and get consistently crisp, accurate throws from its broken quarterback.

As if that harsh reality wasn’t cruel enough, now the Eagles must go into Green Bay and face the red-hot Aaron Rodgers who easily dismantled a similarly-flawed Bears squad a week ago.

Can the Eagles find a way to pull of what would be a remarkable upset? Can they even a muster competitive effort, or will the Packers roll and take another step toward what feels like an inevitable NFC North title?  Let’s get into all of it with our Eagles vs. Packers pick and score prediction.

 

Eagles vs. Packers Week 11 Odds

Here are the current Eagles vs. Packers odds at some of the best PA online sportsbooks.

Best Eagles-Packers Odds by Sportsbook

 

Team Spread Moneyline Total
Eagles    +8.5 (-110)    +325 48.5 (-110)
Packers    -8.5  (-110)    -385 48.5 (-110)

Eagles vs. Packers Odds Analysis

Another week, another game in which oddsmakers at DraftKings Sportsbook and FanDuel Sportsbook aren’t expecting much from the fading Eagles against a superior opponent. Last week, the Packers played a team with a stellar defense and one of the league’s worst offenses. It was 27-10 at halftime. It was 41-10 after three quarters.

This week, the Packers play an opponent with a stellar defense and one of the league’s worst offenses. I guess what I’m trying to figure out is what, exactly, will be different this time around? I imagine most bettors are asking a similar question, and that’s why the Packers are a strong 8.5-point favorite. Even with Green Bay laying such a big number, heavy action has been on the Packers at DraftKings. As of Friday, 81% of spread bets and 85% of the spread handle backed the home team.

If this notable split holds up as the weekend money rolls in, which I suspect it will, it wouldn’t be shocking to see this number climb up to -9, though it would be a surprise to see it reach double digits.

 

Eagles vs. Packers Betting Preview

Aaron Rodgers is completing 68.5% of his passes and has thrown 33 touchdowns against just four interceptions this season. The Eagles have gotten mostly competitive efforts from Jim Schwartz’s defense in recent outings, but even with another solid effort this week, the Packers are going to move the football and put points on the board. The Eagles’ ability to win the game and/or cover the spread is going to come down to offense, and that’s seemingly not great news.

Much like a week ago, it’s hard to find many good reasons to put your money behind the Eagles in this game. This is an offense that has mustered just 17 points in each of its last three games, all of which came against mediocre or downright bad defenses. Not to belabor the point, but what is there to feel good about with these rankings?

  • Points per game: 21.5 (25th)
  • Yards per pass attempt: 5.3 (31st)
  • Sack percentage: 9.77% (32nd)
  • Completion percentage: 58.35% (30th)
  • Yards per play: 4.9 (29th)
  • Third-down conversion percentage 38.62 (27th)

In summary, the Eagles throw the ball a ton, but they don’t do it well. They can’t protect the quarterback, they don’t convert on third down, and they are among the least explosive teams in the game.

We can talk about how Green Bay allows a below-average 25.7 points per game, and possesses one of the worst rushing defenses (4.6 yards per attempt), but who cares? The Eagles haven’t capitalized on previous advantageous matchups in recent weeks, so does the opponent even matter?

It probably goes without saying that in order to keep this game close, Doug Pederson must rely on his running game, stay “on schedule,” and take the pressure off of his struggling quarterback. However, does anyone have confidence that Pederson will game plan to attack this weakness or that he won’t abandon the run at the first sign of trouble? I wouldn’t bet on it. That’s important for betting the total, which I’ll address in a bit.

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Eagles vs. Packers Betting Trends

Reasons to Play the Eagles

Before we get to the trends, it’s worth pointing out that despite a dismal 3-7-1 record, the Eagles have been within a single score at some point in the fourth score of every game this season. It’s not like they get their doors blown off from the jump, and when they did against the Ravens earlier this season, they fought back. That being said, 8.5 points is a lot and leaves many scenarios in play for a cover, just like we saw last Monday night.

Now for some trends:

  • The Eagles are 5-2 ATS in their last seven trips to Green Bay.
  • Since 2003, road underdogs on a three-game losing streak are 97-77-2 ATS overall and 26-18 ATS in the month of December.

As for the second trend, the thought here is struggling teams that have pieced together a significant losing stretch tend to be good cover teams. The public doesn’t want to back losers, and we’re certainly seeing that this week.

Reasons to Play the Packers

Everyone wants to bet on the Packers this week and for good reason. Consider the following:

  • The Packers have won 10 of their last 11 games at home.
  • The Packers are 5-2 ATS in their last seven games against the Eagles, though one of those losses came during Week 3 last season.
  • The Eagles are 1-4 ATS over their last five road games.
  • The Packers are 6-2 ATS in Aaron Rodgers starts when favored between 8-9 points.

Eagles vs. Packers Over/Under Trends

The under has cashed in 7 of 11 Eagles games this season (including five straight), while the over has cashed in 7 of 11 Packers games (including four of the their last five).

The over has hit in six of the Eagles’ last nine road games, though the under has hit in their last two road contests (Giants and Browns).

Interestingly, the under is 16-12-1 in December and January regular season games when the road team enters on a five-game under streak. The under is 6-1 when the road team enters on a five-game under streak with a total set at 46 points or more.

Conversely, the over is 9-4 in December games started by Wentz. That’s notable because the over is just 3-14 in Wentz’s November starts.

 

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Eagles vs. Packers Prediction

I’ll keep this relatively simple. The Packers are laying 8.5 points at home. That’s a lot of points, even against a team playing as poorly as the Eagles. Typically, I would say take the far better team (and quarterback) and call it a day. However, I do think one of these days the Eagles offense may show up with an outlier game–not because I trust the unit but moreso because even bad offenses pop for a 24+ point effort from time to time. In that way, the Eagles are due.

While I suspect the Eagles may generate some points in this game, the Packers are going to win. Still, I would rather not mess with the big number, so I’m turning my attention to the total. It’s true the Eagles have been on quite an under run lately, but they’ve been a good over team in December with Wentz starting. I expect Doug Pederson’s offense to produce over 20 points this week and such production should push this game over the total.

Eagles vs. Packers Betting Pick

I’m not touching the spread. The official pick is OVER 48.5 points.

Bet $1 on the Eagles to score at 50-1 odds with FOX Bet. PA bettors can grab this offer here. NJ bettors can get it here