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Sixers vs. Cavaliers Betting Preview (December 27, 2020)

Published: Dec 27th, 2020 · 1:58 PM EST

PHOTO CREDIT: Bill Streicher-USA TODAY Sports

On Sunday night, the Sixers and Cavaliers meet in the third game of their respective seasons. The Sixers and Cavs are on the back half of a back-to-back following a 20-point victory over the Knicks and nine-point win over the Pistons, respectively, on Saturday night. Let’s get into our Sixers-Cavaliers betting preview, including odds, boosts, and picks.

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Preview

The matchups between the undefeated Sixers and undefeated Cavs should be an interesting matchup and one that could answer a number of questions as to the legitimacy of the respective teams’ 2-0 records. The Sixers enter play as the favored team on Sunday night and, from a macro perspective, in the hunt for a homecourt advantage in the postseason.

Cleveland guards Collin Sexton and Darius Garland have the requisite skillsets to give Philadelphia fits, as the Sixers have struggled in the past to guard perimeter options with a versatile attack. Ben Simmons and Danny Green should be able to limit initial damage, but it will be interesting to see what happens if rookie guard Tyrese Maxey and third-year guard Shake Milton are matched up against the Cleveland guards while the starters rest.

The most attractive matchup in this game -one which will certainly get plenty of play on League Pass- is that of Sixers franchise center Joel Embiid vs. Andre Drummond. The two have sparred on and off the court in recent years and it stands to reason that Embiid could be in for a massive game.

Sixers vs. Cavs Odds

Here’s the line for the Sixers and Cavs at DraftKings Sportsbook PA:

Spread: Sixers -6.5, Cavs +6.5
Moneyline: Sixers -265, Cavs +215
Total: 217

And here are the current best available odds for the Sixers (may not display on Google AMP pages):

[metabet_core_odds_compare query=”76ers” size=”300×250″ site_id=”crossingbroad”]

Bets We Like With a Sixers Win

FiveThirtyEight gives the Sixers an 73% chance of winning with a -6 point spread. Philadelphia’s implied win probability based on the moneyline is 70%. This is the closest the oddsmakers and projected models have come to agreeing on the spread ahead of the Sixers’ three games this season.

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Sixers Win and Over 217 Points (+160, DraftKings)

The oddsmakers and projection models both indicate a belief that the Sixers, who entered the season as a likely Top-4 team in the East, should be able to dispatch their undefeated -and perhaps overachieving- opponents.

The Sixers have won five of their past six games against the Cavs, with the lone loss coming in the teams’ final matchup of the 2019-20 season on February 26. Additionally, the Sixers have won ten consecutive games as favorites on the second leg of a back-to-back.

While the Sixers have seen each of their first two games go under the total points threshold, this one is setting up to be the one that bucks the trend. From a historical context, the Cavs have seen their past seven games on the second leg of a back-to-back go over the total points threshold. The Sixers have averaged 111.0 points per game (18th in the NBA), while the Cavs have racked up an astounding 124.5 points per game (4th in the league). The Cavs have allowed 116.5 points per game, which could lead to an offensive explosion from Philadelphia. The Sixers have held the opposition to the second-lowest points per game average in the NBA (98.0).

Given all of that, the teams should have no problem exceeding 217 total points in a Sixers victory.

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Seth Curry Over 2.5 Made 3-Point Field Goals and Sixers to Win (+145, FOX Bet)

Seth Curry has settled in nicely as a sharpshooting floor spacer for Ben Simmons and Joel Embiid through the first two games of the regular season. After struggling from beyond the arc in the Sixers’ season opener against the Wizards (1-5 from deep), Curry rebounded against the Knicks hitting three of his four shots from beyond the arc.

Last season in his lone game against the Cavs, Curry went 3-5 from beyond the arc and two seasons ago averaged 3.5 made threes on 4.5 attempts.

He’s averaging 31 minutes per game and should have some open looks with double teams likely coming to assist Andre Drummond in his efforts to mitigate Joel Embiid’s offense.

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Sixers to Win and Cavs to Cover +7 Point Spread (+268, FanDuel)

While the head-to-head matchups over the past two seasons wouldn’t support this bet, there is one trend that stands out, making this a worthwhile bet. Over the course of seven of the Cavs’ last nine games on the second leg of a back-to-back, the total points scored has gone over the threshold.

The Cavs are also in a better place as a team than they were at any point a season ago. They’ve won their first two games of the year, including a Charlotte Hornets team projected to finish higher in the standings, as well as a Detroit Pistons team with some top-end talent.

The Sixers were able to complete a blowout of a New York Knicks team comprised heavily of rotation players masquerading as starters. However, the Sixers have made a plethora of games against inferior competition far closer than they should have been, including their season opener against the Wizards. The Cavs should be able to cover the seven-point spread at home with a legitimate chance to tie or win in a final possession.

Bets We Like Independent of Outcome

Each Team Over 100.5 Points (-275, FOX Bet)

This bet falls in line with the aforementioned “Sixers to Win and Over 217 Total Points” parlay, with the ability to divorce the final outcome from a safe bet on the total points scored.

The Sixers allowing 98.0 points per game (2nd-fewest) in the league is a bit skewed by holding the Knicks below 90 points on Saturday night, however the team is full of versatile defenders, including Ben Simmons, Danny Green, and Joel Embiid. The one position the Sixers have consistently struggled to guard for years is rangy guards. The Cavs have two up-and-coming guards with scoring upside in Collin Sexton and Darius Garland. It seems highly unlikely that the Cavs will be able to post a total near their per game average (124.5 points), but they should be able to put up at least 101 points.

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Sixers vs. Cavs Prediction

Pick: Take the Sixers to win and over 217 total points. To hedge a bit, take both teams to score over 100.5 points independent of outcome.

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Russ Joy

Russ Joy is a commercial editor for XLMedia PLC, co-host of Snow The Goalie: A Flyers Podcast and It's Just Wrestling Podcast, and a Philadelphia Flyers writer for CrossingBroad.com. A graduate of West Chester University of PA and California University of PA, Russ is also a husband and father of four. Follow him on Twitter: @JoyOnBroad Email: russell.joy@xlmedia.com